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It is the College Football Playoff selection committee’s turn to make sense of a season where nothing makes sense.
When the 12 people on the committee release their first of six rankings Tuesday evening, football fans will find out if the panel agrees with the popular consensus that defending champion Ohio State is the best team in the country or whether that title belongs to another undefeated team, like Indiana, Texas A&M or BYU.
The committee’s first ranking of its own top 25 will shape the conversation about what college football’s second-ever 12-team playoff will look like when the bracket itself are released Dec. 7.
The playoff begins Dec. 19-20 with four first-round games to be played on the campuses of the higher seeds. It concludes Jan. 19 with the national championship game at Hard Rock Stadium outside Miami.
With four weeks and dozens of big games left in this topsy-turvy season, the Buckeyes are a 2-1 betting favorite to win it all, according to BetMGM Sportsbook; Indiana is next at 5-1, followed by Alabama at 7-1.
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How the CFP ranks teams
In a new twist this season, the CFP will use a “straight seeding” model, placing teams on the same line in the bracket as their ranking, without regard to whether they won their conference championship, as was the case in the rollout of the expanded playoff last year.
But — and this is a big one — five conference champions are still guaranteed spots. In the latest , the only Atlantic Coast Conference team in the top 12 was No. 12 Virginia while no Group of 5 league had a leader anywhere close.
It means the first bracket could include teams ranked lower than that, knocking out the programs the committee ranks 11th and 12th. the first teams out are No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Louisville. Virginia and No. 22 Memphis would be in ahead of the two Red River Rivalry teams.
Of course, all this should be sketched out in pencil, not carved in stone. The ranking reveals are scheduled for every Tuesday through Dec. 7, the day after conference title games that could impact the bracket from top to bottom.
What to watch for in the first CFP rankings
A quick look at who might end up where after the first reveal:
1 seed, Ohio State: It’s not just that the Buckeyes are undefeated. They also have that season-opening win over Texas and are highly ranked in some of the number-crunching categories the committee looks at, like “relative total offense” and “relative total defense.” Still looming: Nov. 29 at Michigan, which has beaten Ohio State four straight times.
2-4, Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama: The committee looks , but those zeros under the “L” for Indiana and Texas A&M are hard to ignore. Texas A&M’s resume is bolstered by a 41-40 win at Notre Dame. Alabama’s season-opening loss at Florida State looks worse every week, but the 7-1 record might be a reflection of how far the Tide have come. Still looming: A potential Indiana-Ohio State matchup in the Big Ten title game.
5-8, Georgia, Ole Miss, BYU, Oregon: Georgia beat Mississippi, so that part’s easy. Where the committee puts undefeated BYU in relation to them will say a lot about its feelings about the Southeastern Conference vs. the Big 12 and just how far a zero in the loss column can take a team. Outside of a double-overtime win at Penn State before the Nittany Lions disintegrated, Oregon doesn’t have a signature win. Looming: BYU vs. Texas Tech on Saturday; they could play again Dec. 6 for the conference title.
9-12, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Virginia: One of the Fighting Irish’s two losses to open the season was to Miami. Texas Tech can prove itself next week against BYU. Likewise, Oklahoma will only stay here (or climb) if it wins at Alabama in two weeks. Virginia has a soft ACC schedule and seems to win every game by one score. That’s been good enough so far. Looming: The ACC title game, whose winner could be the conference’s only team in the CFP.
The rest: Right now, Memphis is the only Group of 5 team in the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech were two of the season’s most unexpected feel-good stories; they’re not out of the conversation yet. And after being ranked No. 1 to start the season, Texas has felt like a disappointment. But if the Longhorns win three (or four) more games, it’s hard to see them missing the playoff.
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