5 Things We’re Watching on Election Day in California

It’s Election Day in California. There’s only one statewide question on the ballot, but there are numerous dynamics at play, political and otherwise. Here are five things we’re watching.

Does Proposition 50 pass or fail?

The measure on the ballot is called Proposition 50, and the main issue at stake is whether Democrats can wrest up to five California congressional seats — and potentially, control of the House of Representatives — from Republicans.

Ordinarily, the state’s political maps are determined and drawn by a nonpartisan commission. But Gov. Gavin Newsom persuaded the Democrats who control the State Legislature to approve a ballot measure that would let state lawmakers redraw California’s congressional districts to increase the chances that Democrats will win more of the seats.

The proposed shift was a response to President Trump’s push to get Republicans in Texas and other states to redraw their maps to help his party keep control of the House. The measure in California could net as many as five congressional seats for Democrats.

The latest polling shows that Proposition 50 is likely to pass.

See what the gerrymandered districts could look like.

Here’s what to know about voting in today’s election.

Does the Justice Department’s election monitoring go smoothly?

The Justice Department plans to monitor polling sites in five counties in California, a move that will likely heighten tensions on Election Day and in the days afterward during the vote-counting process.

Personnel from the agency’s Civil Rights Division will be stationed at polling places and offices of registrars of voters “to ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal law,” the Justice Department said in a statement.

Election monitors will be stationed in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, Fresno and Kern Counties. Election monitors will also be present in New Jersey. The move by the Justice Department was prompted by complaints from Republican Party officials in the two states, which are led by Democrats.

Election monitoring by the Justice Department is not uncommon when Americans go to the polls. But Democrats in California said the decision to put election monitors in counties with large percentages of Latino voters was a politically motivated effort aimed at suppressing the vote. The California attorney general, Rob Bonta, said the state would deploy its own observers, to monitor the monitors.

Shirley Weber, California’s secretary of state, said her office “will not permit tactics masquerading as oversight to erode voter confidence or intimidate Californians.”

Read more about the Justice Department’s plans for election monitoring.

How do the results help or hurt Gavin Newsom?

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political fortunes are closely tied with the results of today’s election.

If Proposition 50 wins, Newsom will be praised by Democrats on the national stage for pulling off a major victory against President Trump. If it fails, Newsom will have gambled and lost, having putting his political clout and brand as a Trump fighter on the line.

Newsom said recently on “CBS News Sunday Morning,” that he will consider running for president after the 2026 midterm elections. If the ballot measure he has pushed for wins, it will give him a fresh foundation to build a presidential campaign on.

Here’s how Newsom turned this special election into a national platform for a possible 2028 presidential run.

Do the ICE raids affect Latino turnout?

This Election Day is unusual in at least one significant way: It will take place while the Trump administration conducts an immigration crackdown that has upended life for many Latinos in parts of California.

The ICE raids have spread widespread fear in Latino communities. Some undocumented immigrants have effectively become shut-ins, avoiding going to work, church or to stores because they are afraid federal agents will detain and eventually deport them. Some Latinos who are United States citizens said they have started carrying their passports with them when they leave home in case they get pulled over.

Democratic officials and Latino voting-rights activists worry that the fear of ICE raids will dampen Latino turnout. Voter data of the turnout so far in California shows that Latino participation is roughly on pace with past elections.

There are signs that the administration’s crackdown may be encouraging more Latino participation. Interviews with two dozen elected officials, voting experts and voters in California showed that the ICE raids were motivating many Latinos to cast ballots against Republicans and President Trump.

Read more about how immigration raids are affecting Latino voters.

It’s decision time for many after Tuesday. Who’s in and who’s out?

We’re expecting a series of big decisions from several political figures in the state at some point after Election Day.

Senator Alex Padilla, whose forcible removal from a Trump administration news conference in June resonated as a call to action for many Democrats, is considering joining the 2026 governor’s race. He recently told The New York Times that he was weighing jumping in.

“But my focus is first and foremost on encouraging people to vote for Proposition 50,” he told The Times’s Lulu Garcia-Navarro.

Rick Caruso, a billionaire developer who spent more than $100 million in 2022 on an unsuccessful run for mayor of Los Angeles, has indicated he’s considering running for mayor again or running for governor.

One of the state’s top Democrats, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is also weighing a decision on whether to seek re-election. Pelosi, 85, has not yet said whether she will seek another term in 2026 in the San Francisco seat she has occupied in Congress since 1987. She stepped down as the Democratic leader after the 2022 midterm elections.

Scott Wiener, a Democratic state legislator, announced he was tired of waiting for her decision and is running for her seat.