It’s Election Day once again, and over the next 24 hours cable, broadcast and streaming channels will be analyzing, to the nth degree, what the numbers in a handful of races mean not just for the jurisdictions they cover, but next year’s midterms and even the 2028 presidential race.
With Donald Trump’s approval ratings sinking, Democrats are looking for signs of voter repudiation, while Republicans are betting that the electorate will still reject the party out of power.
The handful of off-year races are local, but coverage will reflect the national implications of the results of the first significant wave of electoral contests since Trump returned to office.
Trump participated in a tele-rally on Monday evening for GOP candidates in New Jersey and Virginia, but has been absent from the campaign trail itself. His participation may boost GOP turnout, but it also will ignite Democrats, particularly in an election where the challenge is to drum up enthusiasm. “Trump would do just as much or more to crank up turnout on the other side,” NewsNation’s Chris Stirewalt said in a recent interview with Deadline.
Over the weekend, Barack Obama headlined rallies for New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill and Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger. The former president drew attention largely for his attacks on his successor.
In the New York City mayoral race, meanwhile, Zohran Mamdani already is a political celebrity, boosted by a ubiquitous media presence and plenty of negative coverage on Fox News and other outlets in the right. Trump weighed in on Monday with an endorsement of Mamdani’s rival, Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat-turned-independent.
“I would much rather see a Democrat, who has had a Record of Success, WIN, than a Communist with no experience and a Record of COMPLETE AND TOTAL FAILURE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
In California, Gavin Newsom‘s presidential ambitions stand to get a boost if his redistricting initiative, Proposition 50, passes. The move would temporarily roll back the state’s good government redistricting commission, instead putting in place newly gerrymandered districts designed to favor Democrats. It’s a response to Trump-led efforts to get states like Texas to redraw congressional maps to help the GOP in next year’s midterms.
In ads and campaign appearances, Newsom has pitched a Yes on 50 vote as a way to send a message to Trump. In a closing rally on Monday, Newsom cited Trump’s ICE raids on communities and National Guard troops in the streets. “To those that have been bullied, to those that have demeaned, to those that feel powerless, to those that are concerned about not only themselves but each other, our community, our city, our state , the nation, and for that matter, what we represent to the rest of the world, that’s what Prop 50 represents,” he said.
Here are the key races to watch for on Tuesday.
New York City mayor: Mamdani’s effort to lead America’s largest city has drawn more interest in the race than any mayoral cycle in the recent past. The 34-year-old Democratic socialist’s win in the primary was a stunner, shaking up a race than many thought was Cuomo’s to lose. Mamdani also provided fodder for the right, whether it be city-owned grocery stores or his past comments about the police.
With a central focus on affordability, Mamdani has run an everywhere media campaign, from local TV to podcasts to Fox News, and a victory would vindicate his approach over the cautious strategies that have dominated so many other Democratic campaigns. He’s also tapped into pop culture in his ads, running Bachelor-themed and Survivor-themed spots during the shows themselves. His entertainment industry donors include Mark Ruffalo, Gavin Palone and Eve Ensler.
Cuomo, now running as an independent, has tried to capitalize on anyone-but-Mamdani voters, even if that has meant leaning rightward, raising allegations of Islamophobia. As he has proposed boosting police and expanding housing, Cuomo has emphasized that he would be “ready on day one,” countering Mamdani’s dearth of administrative experience.
Before the primary, when he was running as a Democrat, Cuomo drew a long list of establishment donors, including those from entertainment, including Richard Plepler Gary Ginsberg, while also drawing support from figures such as Jeffrey Sachs and Anthony Scaramucci.
Republican Curtis Sliwa refused to drop out of the race as a way to boost Cuomo’s chances. Yet some figures on the right, such as Elon Musk and Trump. The president posted on Truth Social on Monday, “A vote for Curtis Sliwa (who looks much better without the beret!) is a vote for Mamdani. Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”
New Jersey governor: Republicans’ best hopes of an upset seem to lie in the Garden State, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces GOPer Jack Ciattarelli, a former state legislator who came close to defeating incumbent Phil Murphy four years ago. The polls have been tight, albeit Cook Political Report still lists it as lean Democratic.
Sherrill has drawn contributions from industry figures including Jeff Bewkes and the last-minute endorsement of Stephen Colbert, as well as other donors including Melinda Gates and Reid Hoffman. A Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor elected to the House in 2018, Sherrill has a strong resume that should position her well, but Ciattarelli has focused blame on Democrats’ majority in the state, including on core issues like affordability, in a year that otherwise favor the party out of power nationally.
Virginia governor: Democrat Abigail Spanberger has held a polling lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears throughout the campaign, in part because the state tends to reward the party out of power in D.C. in gubernatorial elections, and because the severe cuts to the federal workforce have had a huge impact on the state.
Spanberger’s ads have tried to tie Earle-Sears to Trump and the job cuts. Taking a page out of the Trump playbook, Earle-Sears has tried to hit Spanberger on her support for transgender rights.
Spanberger has drawn significant contributions from Kathryn Murdoch, The Bulwark’s Bill Kristol and Hoffman, while Earle-Sears has drawn support from former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
One person who has stayed on the sidelines is Trump, raising speculation that he does not want to back a campaign heading for defeat. At the tele-rally on Monday, he mentioned Ciattarelli’s name but not Earle-Sears, per NBC News.
California’s Proposition 50: Perhaps no national political figure stands to benefit more from Tuesday’s elections than Newsom, who led an effort to get Proposition 50 on the ballot.
At first, it looked as if Newsom and the state’s Democrats faced an uphill battle, given the tendency of the “No” side of measures to have the advantage in low-turnout elections. Moreover, it appeared that the “No” side would benefit from Charles Munger Jr.’s investment in the campaign of more than $30 million. Moreover, the No on 50 campaign ran ads with a clip of former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the independent redistricting commissions, decrying the effort to roll them back.
But in recent weeks, polls have shown the “Yes” campaign taking a more comfortable lead, as Newsom has deployed figures such as former President Barack Obama and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and has cast the campaign as a way to vote against Donald Trump. Per Cal Matters, Newsom’s campaign even told supporters they could stop donating as they had raised what they needed. Meanwhile, McCarthy’s goal of raising $100 million to fight Prop 50 appears to have fizzled.
Among the major industry donors to Yes on 50 have been Netflix chairman Reed Hastings, who gave $2 million; Tom Rothman, who gave $500,000; and Jane Fonda’s Climate PAC, which gave $10,000. Other donors include Jackson Browne, Chelsea Handler, Tom Ortenberg, Danny DeVito, Les Charles and John Landgraf.
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