SACRAMENTO — Polling places throughout California open today for a special election that could help Democrats’ efforts to quell President Trump’s agenda but, if trends hold, most of the votes may have already been cast.
Since 2020, more than eight in 10 Californians during statewide general or special elections have voted by mailing their ballot, depositing it into an official drop box or returning it to a local voting center, according to a new analysis by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. Back in 2008, nearly six in 10 voters in California went to the polls and used a voting machine on Election Day.
Political analysts expect that significant shift toward early voting to hold true for today’s special election for Proposition 50, a ballot measure that would change California’s congressional district boundaries to favor Democrats. The measure, backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic leaders, was placed on the ballot to counteract a redistricting plan intended to give Republicans more seats in Texas and other GOP states at the behest of Trump, aimed at keeping Congress in Republican hands.
“It certainly extends the voting window and just makes it a lot easier,” said Mark DiCamillo, the institute’s poll director. “I think once a voter does that and uses that method, they are more likely to continue using it in the future.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom urged voters to choose alternative methods in 2020 due to safety concerns with in-person voting during the height of the pandemic. But while precautions against COVID-19 have largely faded, voters continue to embrace different ways of voting.
The shift is notable as Trump has recently renewed his attacks on mail-in voting and sought to convince the public it’s rife with fraud. GOP leaders across the state have pushed back at such messaging without calling out the president. Urging Republicans to vote early, they argue that waiting to cast ballots only gives Democrats a greater advantage in California elections.
More than 6.3 million Californians — 28% of the state’s 23 million registered voters — had cast ballots as of Monday, according to a voting tracker run by Democratic redistricting expert Paul Mitchell. Ballots submitted by Democrats are outpacing Republicans, though GOP voters are expected to be more likely to vote in person on Election Day.
DiCamillo also noted Trump baselessly attacked voting machines from Dominion Voting Systems after his 2020 election loss.
“You can criticize any method I suppose,” he said. “If you don’t trust the machines and you don’t allow people to vote (by mail), what is the alternative?”
A recent poll from the institute shed additional light on California voters.
It found slightly more than half (52%) of registered voters are women, and nearly half (47%) are age 50 or older. Homeowners account for about 47% of the electorate, while the rest are renters or have other living arrangements.
Compared to their Republican counterparts, registered Democrats include larger proportions of women and voters under age 40, the poll found. Republican voters skew older and are more likely than Democrats to be white, married or homeowners.
The poll noted a significant increase in the percentage of registered voters, with 85% of the state’s eligible adults now on the voter rolls, up from 73% in 2000.
“I think one part of that is the ‘motor voter’ law where you can become a registered voter when you go to the DMV,” said DiCamillo. “I think mailing ballots to every voter is also helpful; it used to be that you had to request a ballot to be mailed to you.”
California enacted a new voter registration law in 2015 to streamline voter registration. Under the new policy, citizens who go to the Department of Motor Vehicles to obtain or renew their driver’s licenses are automatically added to voter roles — unless they decline — without having to fill out additional paperwork. In 2021, California also made universal distribution of vote-by-mail ballots permanent.
“This change made citizens’ right to vote not different from other rights, like free speech and due process, which do not require ‘opt in’ processes,” G. Cristina Mora, the institute’s co-director, said in a statement. “Eliminating such voting barriers has increased voter participation and diversity, the effects of which we are witnessing now.”
The institute surveyed 8,141 registered voters in California between Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. The poll, completed online in English and Spanish, was partially funded by the Los Angeles Times.
It included an unweighted sample of 4,243 registered Democrats, 1,924 registered Republicans and 1,974 with other or no party preference.
Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.
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