Nearly one year since Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, Americans’ concerns and anxieties about high bills, inflation and the cost of living that helped propel him back to the White House now loom over the upcoming elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
How acutely voters are grappling with those challenges — and who they hold responsible for them — could shape the outcome of the major gubernatorial races, and with them, the trajectory of both parties heading into the 2026 midterms, experts told ABC News.
“The theme of affordability is pretty widespread across these elections,” Dr. Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told ABC News.
The message of affordability also propelled Zohran Mamdani, a little-known New York assemblyman who has vowed to freeze the rent for rent-controlled apartments in New York City, to the Democratic nomination and helped make him the favorite in Tuesday’s mayoral race.
In New Jersey, “it’s really a focus on what is happening to people’s wallets,” Konig said.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli have both sparred over cost-of-living issues in the governor’s race.
Sherrill’s agenda includes plans to expand affordable housing with tax incentives for developers. She has also said she would declare a state of emergency to freeze utility rate hikes.
The Garden State has one of the highest average residential electricity rates in the country, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. According to the Regional Plan Association, New Jersey’s electricity rates spiked between 17 and 20% over the summer.
Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state representative, has zeroed in on taxes — vowing to reduce the state’s personal and corporate tax rates, and expanding a property tax freeze for seniors in the high-tax state.
A new Quinnipiac Poll taken in the final days of the race found that 25% of likely voters say taxes are the most important issue in deciding who to vote for.
Some voters in the state have held outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy responsible for economic conditions in New Jersey, creating a challenge for Sherrill in a state that has not kept the same party in the governor’s mansion for three consecutive terms since 1961.
“I think most voters probably have that at the front of their mind here because I think everyone’s feeling it,” Kelsey Anthony, an attorney who voted early for Ciattarelli, told ABC News’s Martha Raddatz. “The last eight years have been really telling, and the current administration has really done a number on a lot of New Jersey families.”
In Virginia, where tens of thousands of residents who are federal workers and have been impacted by the government shutdown, Trump’s record — and frustrations with the federal government — can be felt more acutely.
About 6 in 10 Americans blame Trump for the current rate of inflation, while more than 6 in 10 disapprove of how Trump is handling tariffs, the economy and managing the federal government, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel.
“I think it has gotten worse,” Juliana, a single mother of three and a clinical technician in a Virginia hospital, told ABC News’ Elizabeth Schulze in an interview about the economy since last year’s election.
“Virginia’s really expensive,” she said. “In order for you to really make it, you need you need another person in your life that will work with you.”
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, has focused her closing message on the economy, hitting the Trump administration’s trade policy and the impact of the shutdown and cuts to the federal government on Virginians.
Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, who has trailed Spanberger for most of the race, has attacked Spanberger over Democrats’ positions on the government shutdown and focused on trans issues, which helped Republicans win the governor’s mansion in 2021.
She has also sought to exploit backlash around violent text messages sent by the Democratic attorney general candidate.
Zack Roday, a Republican Virginia-based strategist, said Democrats are settling on an economic message that “unifies their party,” and that there’s still a year for the country’s economic outlook to improve and for Republicans to sell Trump’s policies ahead of the midterms.
“If cost of living is at the top, then that’s clearly where they will stay, but there’s also a lot of time for the Trump policies — and a lot of activity around trade and the tax code,” he said. “And he has a massive microphone.”
Even some Democrats concede that there are elements of the Republican tax law popular with voters, such as provisions for no taxes on tips and overtime for some service workers.
But cuts to federal government programs, as well as the Trump administration’s tariff policy, could overshadow the economic conversation, analysts and operatives told ABC News.
“Clearly there is support for [lowering taxes], but it is not a policy position that affects the short-term pain people are feeling,” Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki told ABC News.
ABC News’ Martha Raddatz and Elizabeth Schulze contributed to this report
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