Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers are prepared to bolt from the Big Apple if socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani wins Tuesday’s mayoral race — potentially setting the stage for the largest population flight in US history, an alarming new poll warned early Monday.
Around 765,000 people of the 8.4 million residents who call New York City home are preparing to leave, with about 9% of New Yorkers sharing they would “definitely” leave the city if Mamdani were elected the 111th mayor, the Daily Mail reported, citing a survey conducted by J.L. Partners.
If those residents were to leave, it would be equal to the population of Washington, DC, Las Vegas, or Seattle fleeing the city.
Another 25% of New Yorkers — about 2.12 million — said they would “consider” packing up and leaving.
Among high earners, 7% of those making over $250,000 a year said they would definitely flee.
Poll results highlighted widespread unease about the 34-year-old assemblyman taking over City Hall, warning that a mass departure could have severe economic consequences nationwide.
“If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic,” pollster James Johnson told the outlet. “Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters are the most likely to say they would pack up and go.”
“When asked to sum up what Mamdani’s New York would look like, respondents called it a ‘disaster,’ ‘hell,’ and — cover your ears, kids — a ‘sh–hole,’” he added.
Men were more likely than women to say they’d leave — 12% of men and 7% of women say they’re sure to move, with roughly a quarter of each group considering it. Voters aged 50–64 showed the strongest desire to flee, with 12% certain and 33% weighing a move, according to the poll.
By race, 13% of white New Yorkers and 11% of Asian residents said they would definitely leave.
Staten Island voters led the stampede, with 21% saying they’d go and another 54% considering it. In Manhattan, 6% say they’d flee and 20% are unsure; in Brooklyn, it’s 8% and 18%.
The Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee have emerged as top escape destinations thanks to lower income and property taxes.
At least 1.9 million voters are expected to vote in the race, topping the 1.5 million who voted when Republican Michael Bloomberg defeated Mark Green in 2021, and believed to be the highest Big Apple turnout since nearly 2.5 million headed to the polls in 1969 to elect liberal John Lindsay.
As of Sunday night – when early voting ended – 735,317 New Yorkers had flocked to the polls.
Mamdani held a 6.6-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo with 72 hours left before the election, his narrowest margin since July.
A new AtlasIntel poll released Saturday shows Mamdani at 40.6%, followed by Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%.
However, the latest RealClearPolitics average still puts Mamdani comfortably ahead by 14.5 points, keeping him firmly on track to become New York City’s next mayor.
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