Nearing the one-month mark, the government shutdown has caused increased anxiety as Republicans stand fast against Democrat demands. However, new polling shows some surprising shifts in public opinion.
Explaining the results of new polls from AP-NORC and Quinnipiac, CNN data analyst Harry Enten demonstrated that Republicans have little to no reason to “give in” in this battle in the Senate.
‘This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years.’
To begin, Enten showed that the Republican brand in general gained two points in popularity: “That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped.”
Approval for congressional Republicans has also increased by five points since the shutdown began, according to Enten’s analysis.
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Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images
“You might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand — but in fact, it hasn’t.”
Enten demonstrated that the shutdown has not only significantly rallied the Republican base — it has also done well with independents.
“Something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle — or something could rally those in the middle but alienate the base. But the truth is, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is that the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents, and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well.”
Enten also showed that Democrats are in a “considerably worse” position ahead of the 2026 midterms. While still ahead of Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats are up only three points now, compared to +11 points at this point in 2017, a year before the 2018 midterms.
“This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on a generic ballot at this point in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years.”
“So again, what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would give in at this point?” Enten repeated.
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