WASHINGTON (AP) — Virginia will elect its first woman as governor Tuesday as Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger look to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Voters will also decide races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and the state House of Delegates.
The commonwealth is holding one of two elections for governor this year. Historically, the races in Virginia and New Jersey in the year following a presidential election have been closely watched on a national level as a barometer of how voters are feeling about the party holding the White House.
Spanberger has held a financial advantage throughout the campaign, bringing in about $66 million over the course of her campaign, compared to about $35 million for Earle-Sears. The Democrat entered the final two-week stretch of the campaign with about $4.1 million remaining in the bank, compared to $1.3 million for the Republican.
The race for lieutenant governor features Democratic state Sen. of Richmond and Republican talk-radio host . Hashmi prevailed in a crowded June Democratic primary, while Reid was unopposed for the Republican nomination. Reid’s campaign got off to a rocky start when Youngkin called on him to after allegations surfaced linking Reid to a social media account containing sexually explicit photos. Reid has denied any involvement with the account.
Controversy has also swirled in the race for state attorney general, where Republican incumbent Jason Miyares seeks a second term. His challenger is former Democratic state Del. Jay Jones, who in suggested, among other things, that a prominent Republican lawmaker get “two bullets to the head.” Jones has apologized for the messages, but the issue has been a major topic not only in the race for attorney general but also at the top of the ticket. Earle-Sears has criticized Spanberger on the campaign trail and in television ads for not calling on Jones to withdraw from the race.
Voters will also determine which party will control the closely divided state House of Delegates, where Democrats hold a 51-48 seat majority, with one seat vacant. The state Senate is not up for election this year.
Virginia has undergone a political realignment in the last 20 years, driven largely by population growth in the Washington, D.C., suburbs in Northern Virginia, which has favored Democrats. The area is home to a concentration of federal workers, some of whom are now furloughed because of the government shutdown or lost their jobs as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to slash the federal workforce.
Republican presidential candidates carried the commonwealth in 10 consecutive elections from 1968 to 2004, but Democrats have prevailed in the five elections since. Despite the recent streak, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris won Virginia with a relatively modest 52% of the vote in 2024.
Virginia voters tend to be less party-loyal when it comes to state offices, as the governorship has changed party hands seven times over the last 60 years.
Starting in 1976, every time a party has won back control of the White House, Virginia voters have elected a governor from the opposing party the following year. And in 11 of the last 12 gubernatorial elections, the winner of the Virginia governorship has been from a different party than the incumbent president. The sole exception was 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe was elected governor while fellow Democrat Barack Obama occupied the White House.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts. Candidates may request and pay for recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1 percentage point or less. The government will pay for the recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percentage points or the outcome has changed. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
How late will polls be open?
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, state attorney general and the House of Delegates.
Who gets to vote?
Any registered voter in Virginia may participate in statewide elections or in local elections in their state House district or municipality.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of early September, there were about 6.3 million registered voters in Virginia. Voters do not register by party.
In the 2021 gubernatorial election, turnout was about 55% of registered voters. About 36% of votes in that election were cast before Election Day.
As of Monday, nearly 987,000 ballots had already been cast before Election Day. See the AP for the latest update.
How long does vote counting usually take?
In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported results at 7:11 p.m. ET, or 11 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:56 a.m. ET with about 95% of total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 364 days until the 2026 midterm elections and 1,099 days until the 2028 general election.
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The post AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Virginia on Election Day appeared first on Associated Press.
