In a town that still enjoys the prestige of championing original auteur-driven adult fare for the big screen, the fall’s box office has given studio executives great cause for concern.
20th Century Studios’ much hoped for awards contender biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere was no Bob Dylan or Bob Marley at the box office with an $8.88M opening and a B+ CinemaScore.
Then Amazon MGM Studios’ $70M-$80M Julia Roberts-Andrew Garfield starring dramatic thriller After the Hunt was slain at the B.O. with a three-weekend running cume of $2.9M and a double whammy in its audience exits with a low 23% definite recommend in Screen Engine/ComScore PostTrak and a C- CinemaScore. Amazon MGM Studios spared on expense on the movie, sources telling Deadline that Julia Roberts was paid $20M for the movie and other talent receiving full freight.
Those are just two upscale, adult-skewing movies in a crowded September and October that has seen the subgenre buckle. Other casualties include Sony’s Margot Robbie-Colin Farrell A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (net $45M production cost, $6.6M domestic, $21M global, B- CinemaScore) and Darren Aronofsky’s crime comedy Caught Stealing (which we’re hearing cost well in excess of net $40M, with numbers as high as $65M, $19M box office, $32M global, B CinemaScore); A24’s Smashing Machine (net $50M production cost, $11.3M domestic, $19.7M global, B- CinemaScore), Focus Features’ Daniel Day Lewis-starring Anemone (net $14M production cost, $1.1M domestic, no public exit scores) and Roadside Attractions/Lionsgate/LD Entertainment’s Kiss of the Spiderwoman (a distribution deal for the distribs, but a $30M production cost, $1.6M domestic, 54% definite recommend on PostTrak).
Many of these movies were R-rated with the exception of Springsteen which was PG-13. Most can also be described as either a star-driven dramatic vehicle, a film-festival darling or primed as an awards contender (which by the way, is still possible).
There’s a great debate as to what’s contributing to this funk. Some distribution sources argue that the crunching of film windows post Covid are fully to blame. Maybe.
However, the lackluster audience scores on these movies say it all. None of these films lassoed any word of mouth, so don’t write the obituary on auteurist cinema just yet. Under the hood, each of these titles had their own handicaps, whether it was their marketing campaign, release date, feathered fish cross genres (Smashing Machine, an arthouse movie about addiction geared at the MMA crowd), conceit, unfilled endings or simply a grand ole division among critics and crowds
This is a bad batch of titles at the box office, not a new norm.
What’s the proof of that? Why Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another which is the one-eyed giant among the blind with a $23 million domestic opening, and equally great critical and audience exits with 95% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and a great 74% definite recommend on PostTrak. At $180.1M worldwide, no one can deny, it’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s highest grossing movie ever. “But that costs $140M! How can you say that?” exclaim myriad pearl-clutchers in town. Sorry, but on a pure gross level, this movie is doing what it’s supposed to do and it’s working where these sophisticated adult titles typically work: on the coasts. Rival studio executives know it, but prefer not to admit it: One Battle After Another is continued proof that original auteur-driven films can still find a semblance of an audience.
“I refuse to believe that this is a bad batch,” counters one specialty studio executive to us. “Ten years ago, this crop of movies would have worked or grossed better.”
Looking back at September-October of 2015 what’s clear is that the major studios had significantly greater success with adult movies in an era when streaming wasn’t eroding moviegoing, i.e. Warner Bros. with the Johnny Depp mobster movie Black Mass ($22.6M opening, $62.5M domestic and near $100M global gross) and The Intern ($17.7M opening, $75.7M domestic, $194.7M global gross), Disney’s Bridge of Spies ($15.3M opening, $72.3M domestic, $165.4M global) and even Ridley Scott’s The Martian — though that had a tentpole sensibility ($54.3M opening, $228.4M domestic, $630.6M global). Among the movies that didn’t work were Universal’s Steve Jobs ($7.1M wide break opening, $17.7M domestic, $34.4M global), Crimson Peak ($13.1M opening, $31M domestic, $74.6M global) and Warner Bros’ Joe Wright-directed Pan ($15.3M opening, $35M domestic, $129M global).
“The 40-60+ aged crowd used to attend movies on a frequent basis. They wouldn’t just go to critically-acclaimed movies but programmable ones like Woman in Gold ($33M) and Hello My Name Is Doris ($17.7M). That demographic has been lost to the convenience of Netflix, and the arthouse exhibition track for these movies which included the Landmark and Arclight Cinemas isn’t in the same shape as it was pre-pandemic. The cinemas that made these movies pop on opening weekend are gone, and with it the audience. Something needs to be done to get this crowd back,” continued the same specialty executive.
When it comes to the broken adult movie space, some point the finger at those studios who shortened the theatrical window on such adult titles to 17 days before PVOD.
The reality of the situation is in a marketplace where word of mouth travels at a lightning speed, longer windows for this fall’s crop of lackluster grade movies wouldn’t necessarily draw more people. Feeble ticket sales out of the gate make it a challenge for distributors to hold these movies on screen with exhibition. Post Covid with the fractured specialty theater market in NYC and L.A., platforming can only be confined to awards contending sure bets — i.e. last year’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner turned ultimate Oscar Best Picture winner Anora from NEON which cost $6M and went onto gross $20.4M stateside and north of $57M worldwide. If the distribution intelligence shows otherwise on a mid-sized picture, then it’s a wide break with a fast jettison to the home market. That’s the only way to make money off “meh.”
According to NRG, in recent years there’s been a tightening of the PVOD window and an expansion of the SVOD window. Since last year, 70% of studio releases make it to PVOD within 45 days of theatrical release. That’s up from 40% in 2002. In contrast, around 55% to 60% of all studio releases are taking 90+ days to reach SVOD, up from 14% in 2022.
There’s also the reality that there’s just too many of these movies squashed into a confined third and fourth quarter, and that the audience for them aren’t available until the holidays. A great World Series playoff such as this year’s with the L.A. Dodgers vs. the Toronto Blue Jays can throw a wrench into business entirely. While studios are looking to play off the heat of the fall film festival troika, there’s an argument to be made that the plan should be for success first at the box office, and an awards play thereafter. There’s plenty of other open weekends on the calendar. Witness, the spring success of Ryan Coogler’s period horror movie Sinners in the Easter corridor, that movie now standing at $278.5M domestic, $366.6M worldwide off an A CinemaScore.
Triple note that you gotta look at the overall big picture when it comes to these upscale fall titles. Focus Features’ Vatican thriller Conclave last year opened to $6.6M stateside at 1,737 theaters for a $3,7K PER-theater average. That’s more potent than the $5.8M that Smashing Machine opened to at 3,345 theaters with a $1,7K theater average. Conclave went on to do a 5x-plus multiple at the box office for Focus which had domestic, grossing $32.5M. The movie won an Adapted Screenplay Oscar out of its eight noms and got a further boost on streaming when this past spring’s Vatican Conclave for a new Pope was held. In total, the pic grossed $127.5M worldwide and finance sources inform Deadline that the FilmNation title was profitable with around $15M after all ancillaries.
Another hit last year which may not have appeared to be A a winner — based on its $3.2M opening and $17.5M domestic box office — was Mubi’s The Substance which grossed close to $80M global. The pic’s global bounty was huge just prior to the Governors Awards last year, and the Demi Moore horror pic ultimately notched five Oscar nominations including Best Picture, Best Actress for Moore and Best Director and Screenwriter for Coralie Fargeat, winning for Make-Up.
Apropos, this year, Miramax and Paramount have the Derek Cianfrance-directed Roofman which opened to $8.1M and has grossed $19.6M stateside. It’s based on the real-life story of McDonalds bandit Jeffrey Manchester who hid out at a Toys R’ Us and had a relationship with an employee. With a B+ CinemaScore, some say in a pre-Covid era the Channing Tatum-Kirsten Dunst caper romance would have done more. However, among this year’s adult movies, it’s the cheapest of the bunch at a net $19 million.
Post Covid, awards voters have become increasingly box office agnostic. One Example is last year’s The Apprentice, which chronicled the rise of Donald Trump during 1980s NYC. The movie didn’t find a theatrical audience, grossing $4 million stateside. However, the movie did deliver a Best Actor Oscar nomination for Sebastian Stan as the real estate baron who would become POTUS and a Best Supporting nod for Jeremy Strong.
Hence, there could still be a Best Actor chance for Dwayne Johnson’s turn in The Smashing Machine and a shot at Best Actress for Jennifer Lopez coming away from Kiss of the Spider Woman. LGBTQ-themed movies like Spider Woman — outside of Brokeback Mountain and The Birdcage — have faced challenges at the box office. The original Oscar-winning Spider Woman back in 1985 only grossed $17M, not amazing for the era, but amazing by the lights of this season’s market struggles.
The press has cast stones at One Battle After Another for its $140 million production cost, saying that a car chase movie about anarchists should never have cost that much. Nonetheless, the movie remains one of the most hotly-buzzed titles this awards season, evident in its six Gotham Award Nominations this AM. As the first motion picture studio to cross $4 billion worldwide this year off hits such as A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Superman and more, Warner Bros’ gamble on One Battle After Another stemmed from the desire by brass on for the Burbank, CA lot to make a legacy film. Anderson is considered to be a modern day Stanley Kubrick, hence a swing well afforded.
Reliable insiders inform us that One Battle After Another‘s breakeven at the global box office remains in the low $200M range not the $300M that’s been published out there. Warners hasn’t set a PVOD date yet on One Battle After Another, looking to keep the movie in theaters for the long haul. The pic will return to Imax 70MM locations on Dec. 12, which is right around Golden Globe nominations.
Currently at $65.9M domestic, there’s a path for another $10M to $15M in One Battle After Another‘s U.S./Canada legs by the time Oscars are handed out on March 15, 2026.
The easy answer to studios’ dilemma with adult-focused dramas is that the measure of success for such titles has changed. The harder way out is creating a steady diet of buzzworthy modern classics that will get a lost generation of moviegoers back in seats.
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