CNN’s data guru Harry Enten was caught off guard to find a rare bright spot for Republicans during the government shutdown—a modest polling bump.
Enten revealed on CNN on Tuesday that Americans’ view of Republicans in Congress had improved during the shutdown, which began at the beginning of the month.
“You might think that given that Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But, in fact, it hasn’t!” Enten exclaimed.
“We’re seeing here the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control [the House, Senate and White House],” he continued.
Enten cited a Quinnipiac poll posted Oct. 22 that showed that the net popularity for Republicans in Congress had improved by five points since the question was last asked in July.
“And that‘s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at, saying, ‘Hey, why should we give in electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little,” Enten said.
While the numbers have improved for Republicans, it would be misleading to suggest that Americans broadly approve of their work in Congress. Congressional Republicans scored a -24 on approval rating in the Quinnipiac poll. That is still significantly better than the approval score for Democrats in the same poll, which is -41.
The key difference between the two parties is how their respective bases feel about their elected officials. 82% of Republicans approved of the congressional GOP, while only 58% of registered Democrats approved of their party. 27% of Independents approved of Republicans, while only 19% approved of Democrats.
The segment followed a string of recent appearances in which CNN’s chief data analyst highlighted troubling numbers for Republicans. On Oct. 23, Enten said Trump is polling worse on the economy than any president ever has since the question first circulated in American polling in 1977. On Oct. 21, he went over Gallup polling that found 7% more Americans were identifying as Democrats than Republicans.
The same Quinnipiac poll found that despite the Democrats’ miserable approval rating and the GOP’s bump in approval, 50% Americans would prefer a Democrat-led Congress compared to 41% preferring a Republican one.
But Enten was less bullish for Democrats on this point. Enten said, based on his aggregation of polls, Democrats are only up 3% in generic congressional ballot polls. This tracks with RealClearPolitics’ aggregation of polls on the question.
A 3-point lead is alarmingly low for an opposition party heading into the midterms, when they usually post bigger gains.
Enten pointed out that in October of 2017, Democrats were polling at +11 in the generic congressional ballot question.
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