The Russia-Ukraine Energy War

The war in Ukraine is heading into its fourth winter. Western efforts to force Russia to the negotiating table have so far failed. But as Ukraine and its allies target Russia’s oil industry with drones and new sanctions, my colleague Constant Méheut writes about why this time might be different.

A shift to the energy front

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By Constant Méheut

Far from the largely deadlocked front lines, Russia and Ukraine are waging a fierce parallel war, betting on attacks against each other’s energy assets to break the stalemate.

This conflict became more prominent last week as the U.S. and Europe announced sweeping new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry, the lifeblood of the Kremlin’s war machine. Ukraine is also using what it calls “long-range sanctions” — drone strikes that have damaged dozens of the refineries where Russia turns crude oil into fuel.

For Russia, the target is once again Ukraine’s electricity and gas infrastructure, which it has attacked in a devastating campaign to cripple the economy and undermine morale as winter approaches.

Whether either side will yield anytime soon is uncertain. But analysts say each views its energy attacks as a strategic lever in a conflict that has ground on for nearly four years.

Heating up in winter

Russia’s forces are gaining territory, though very slowly and at great cost, and they are expected to keep pushing on the battlefield. But as winter slows the pace of ground fighting, with sparse vegetation reducing cover for troops and brutal cold straining their movement and equipment, the energy battle is likely to remain the most active area of conflict in the coming months.

Previous sanctions were aimed at depriving Moscow of its economic lifeblood — an energy industry that generates hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Group of 7 nations put a cap on the price of Russian oil in 2022. Russia weathered that move by selling to countries such as China and India.

But President Trump’s latest sanctions on the Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft go beyond previous measures. By blacklisting the two companies, Trump is now threatening to punish any company doing business with them around the world. The hope is that this will prompt key buyers such as India to curtail their imports.

Deprived of these funds, it could become more difficult for Russia to replace lost battlefield equipment and pay large sums to its army recruits.

Signaling Russia’s mounting economic strain, the country’s military spending is projected to go down next year, for the first time since the war began.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has acknowledged that the sanctions will hurt the economy, but has insisted that they will not sway the Kremlin’s calculus in the war. Trump has suggested that Putin might feel differently in six months, once the sanctions start to bite.

In addition to the economic warfare, Ukraine’s long-range strikes on refineries had by last month destroyed or damaged about 20 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, according to one analyst. That has caused severe gasoline shortages in several regions, as Ukraine tries to bring the pain of war to ordinary Russians.

Undermining morale

As Ukraine and its allies pressure Russia on the energy front, Moscow has stepped up its military strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The goal, experts say, is to leave many people in the cold and the dark, undermining morale and disrupting economic activity.

This month, Ukraine started instituting emergency blackouts across the country to cope with electricity shortages caused by attacks on power plants and substations.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure are not new, especially at the onset of winter, when power demand peaks. Over time, Ukrainians have adapted, relying on small generators and batteries to get by.

This year, however, Russia has expanded its campaign to strike Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, which fuels much of the country’s heating systems. Recent attacks on gas facilities have knocked out roughly 60 percent of Ukraine’s gas production capacity as well as a number of stations needed to pump gas through pipelines, according to a European official.

Several cities have delayed turning on centralized heating in residential buildings to cope with gas shortages. Fears are mounting that many households may go without sufficient heat this winter, in a country where subzero temperatures can linger for weeks.

We’ve seen something like this before. Russia has lots of practice enduring sanctions; Ukraine knows how to cope with cold winters under challenging conditions. But with the peace talks and the front lines frozen, both sides have decided that the energy war is their best hope to gain an advantage.

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