It feels as though, for now, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a favorite of his US counterpart, Donald Trump. Meeting the US president in the Oval Office can be a risky undertaking — one never knows what sort of one might get — but it hasn’t been a problem for Erdogan, yet. For weeks, Trump has been talking about the 71-year-old in glowing terms.
At the meeting on the Gaza ceasefire held in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on October 13, Trump placed the Turkish president in the first row. He was one of the handful of leaders to in support of the , alongside Trump and others from and . And Trump once again emphasized the sentiment that was a good friend of his.
Israel: No Turkish troops in Gaza
US Vice President JD Vance held a similar attitude during his recent visit to . There, he noted that in resolving the Middle East conflict so far, and that this could be expected to continue.
This puts the US somewhat at odds with Israeli Prime Minister and his cabinet. They hold a much more negative opinion of Erdogan due his perceived closeness to the Gaza-based militant group Hamas and nonstop, harsh criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
That came out at the joint press conference held by Netanyahu and Vance this week. When asked what he thought about Turkish troops potentially being part of an “international stabilization force” in Gaza, Netanyahu replied: “I have very strong opinions about that. You want to guess what they are?”
It’s true that over the past two years, Turkish-Israeli relations have deteriorated markedly. Israel’s government of committing a genocide in Gaza and Erdogan himself has described Netanyahu as the “butcher of Gaza.” He’s also called Hamas “.”
Unverified reports in the Turkish media suggest Ankara has granted refuge to Hamas members and their families. The Palestinian militant group is considered a terrorist organization by not only Israel, but Germany, the US and several other countries. There are Hamas members in Turkey — some are there as the result of an earlier prisoner swap with Israel — and other Hamas members are known to visit Turkey regularly. However, contrary to Israeli accusations, Turkey says Hamas has never established an office in the country.
Israeli politicians have frequently employed anti-Turkish rhetoric — especially the far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s government, who have posted offensive photo montages and caricatures, some in Turkish. After Hamas leader in October 2024, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz shared a photo of Sinwar’s dismembered body, saying this is what Erdogan’s “murderer friend” now looks like.
Turkey: From sidelines to front row
In terms of negotiating with Hamas, the US already has Qatar to work with. is based in Qatar.
The fact that Trump also brought Turkey into the equation — despite Israel’s opposition — is the result of Ankara’s strategic positioning, said Hakki Tas, a research fellow who specializes in Turkey and Egypt at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, or GIGA.
Trump wants to resolve this issue at the lowest possible military and economic cost to his own country, Tas said. And the Turkish government is one of the few actors that can exert indirect pressure on Netanyahu through its policies while simultaneously influencing Hamas, he added.
Turkey is also a with close ties to the West, a key military player and has plenty of experience providing humanitarian aid and logistics for reconstruction in the . Turkey has professional aid organizations like the governmental Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), or the nongovernmental Turkish Red Crescent. These agencies have extensive experience dealing with disaster and displacement.
Turkish construction companies are some of the largest in the world. Many of them have been supported by Erdogan’s generous government contracts over the past two decades.
Playing a part in the Gaza ceasefire also gives Erdogan geopolitical clout, Tas explained, especially in relation to an ever-weaker Hamas and an increasingly unpopular Israel. Erdogan has moved from standing on the sidelines to being a central player. This brings him prestige and appeals to his supporters’ pro-Palestinian sentiments.
Erdogan’s mostly nationalistic and conservative base has not been happy with Ankara’s politics recently. But the idea that Turkey is now supporting the peace deal in Gaza, might send troops there and will engage in humanitarian and reconstruction work satisfies many of them.
Turkish security expert Burak Yildirim said being able to deploy Turkish troops into Gaza would be a major domestic and political win for Erdogan that would help strengthen the narrative of the Turkish government’s foreign policy effectiveness. For hard-liners in Turkey, such a deployment would be of great significance, he added.
After the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s military offensive in response, Erdogan came under pressure from voters on . But over the past few months, he’s shown a willingness to compromise on this with Trump. Yildirim believes Erdogan doesn’t really want to put his economically troubled administration to yet another test over this issue.
Military moves in Gaza too risky
The ceasefire in Gaza continues to look fragile. Meanwhile, Ankara is focusing on Syria, even though it also wants to remain an important actor in Gaza.
There’s no way Turkey can bring about a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially when it comes to a two-state solution, said Yildirm. Turkey alone cannot make Palestine a universally recognized state, nor can it allay Israel’s security fears. But what it can do is bring conflict parties and other stakeholders to the table.
GIGA’s Tas isn’t sure whether Turkey can maintain that role in the medium or long-term. There are too many potential fault lines: Israel’s violation of international law in the , , the US Congress’ restrictive approach to dealing with Erdogan and even divisions within Hamas, to name a few. All of these could dilute Turkey’s influence.
This is why, Tas said, he expects Turkey to focus primarily on humanitarian and logistical issues in Gaza. Political and military topics are seen as too high-risk for Ankara.
This article was originally written in German.
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