Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. U.S. President Donald Trump’s flurry of diplomacy continues, with the White House confirming that he will make the first trip to Asia of his second term next week. Negotiations on Ukraine and the Middle East continue apace.
On that note, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The Trump administration keeps a close eye on the cease-fire in Gaza, the U.S. treasury secretary unveils new sanctions against Russia, and Trump’s war against alleged drug boats expands to the Pacific.
The Difficult Art of Bibi-Sitting
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner were all in Israel this week as part of an effort to hold together a fragile cease-fire in Gaza. The truce faced a major test last weekend with renewed Israeli airstrikes that killed dozens of Palestinians, which Israel said were conducted a response to a Hamas attack. The cease-fire survived but remains on thin ice.
With so many top U.S. officials visiting the region, Vance sought on Wednesday to push against the notion that Washington was seeking to babysit the Gaza truce and tell Israel what to do—or as some in the Israeli media have called it: Bibi-sitting.
Vance said that the United States is not looking to “monitor a toddler” in Israel and views the country as an important partner, not a “vassal state.” But it’s clear that the Trump administration, which has already taken a victory lap over its Gaza peace plan with misleading declarations of the war being over, is nervous that the process could fall apart. During his visit to Israel, Vance said he’s optimistic about the cease-fire but acknowledged that there’s still “a lot of work to do.”
Here’s a look at what’s next on the administration’s agenda in the peace process.
Stabilizing forces. Trump’s plan calls for the establishment of an international stabilization force that will be temporarily deployed in Gaza to help with security issues and train a Palestinian police force. Vance said on Thursday that those troops would spearhead the process of disarming Hamas—something that the militant group has yet to agree to.
Nations that the administration has floated as possible contributors to the force include Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. But recent reports indicate that some countries are reluctant to get involved, given the lack of clarity surrounding the mission and the potential for clashes with Hamas.
It’s also unlikely that Israel will be thrilled with having an international force in Gaza that involves countries that it has shaky relations with, such as Turkey. Indeed, when asked by a reporter on Wednesday about the idea of having Turkish forces in Gaza, Netanyahu said: “I have very strong opinions about that. Want to guess what they are?”
Rubio said on Wednesday that the Trump administration might seek a United Nations mandate for the stabilization force, which would provide a sense of legitimacy for the force and a legal basis for it under international law. However, though Washington has deployed some troops to Israel to help oversee the cease-fire and has signaled that they will help coordinate with the stabilization force once it’s up and running, the Trump administration has maintained that no U.S. service members will be on the ground in Gaza.
Control and reconstruction. As these issues get sorted out, Kushner has proposed a plan that would split Gaza into two zones, with one controlled by Hamas and the other controlled by the Israel Defense Forces. Kushner’s proposal calls for the area under Israeli control, which currently constitutes about 53 percent of Gaza, to be reconstructed. Meanwhile, no funds for reconstruction would be allocated to the area controlled by Hamas until the group disarms. This proposal has reportedly alarmed Arab mediators, who are concerned that it could lead to permanent Israeli control of portions of Gaza.
Long story short, Gaza’s future remains extremely uncertain, and the survival of the peace process is also being tested by concerns over the potential for Israel to annex the occupied West Bank. The Trump administration excoriated Israel over a preliminary Knesset vote on a measure that would apply Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the occupied West Bank, which is seen as a step toward annexation—a prospect that the U.S. vehemently opposes. Vance called the vote a “stupid political stunt,” and Rubio suggested that it was “potentially threatening to the peace deal.”
Let’s Get Personnel
U.S. Defense Department spokesperson Sean Parnell announced on Wednesday that more than 60 journalists will receive credentials to cover the department, a week after most mainstream news outlets walked out after refusing to sign a highly restrictive Pentagon press policy that they said infringes on press freedom.
The newly formed press corps mostly represents “new media outlets and independent journalists,” Parnell said, including 26 journalists representing 18 outlets from the previous press corps who chose to sign the policy. The list reportedly includes several right-wing, pro-Trump influencers and organizations such as LindellTV, the outlet started by Trump acolyte and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is also reportedly putting new restrictions on how Pentagon employees speak with Congress, requiring that they obtain approval from the department’s legislative affairs office before speaking with Capitol Hill.
Also this week, the Defense Department (which Trump unofficially renamed the Department of War), along with the White House and other agencies, joined the Bluesky social media platform—marketed as an alternative to X—where they were met with intense trolling and blocking by the platform’s users.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
(F)oiled. Trump’s frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin has been mounting for months, but he has largely refrained from acting on that frustration—until now. The Trump administration announced new sanctions late Wednesday on Rosneft and Lukoil, targeting two of Russia’s biggest oil companies and sparking a knock-on effect on Russian oil’s biggest buyers, India and China. Our colleagues Keith Johnson and Sam Skove have more details.
Other Western countries are also stepping up their pressure campaign on Russia and their support for Ukraine. The European Union imposed its own set of fresh sanctions on Russia on Wednesday, while the United Kingdom slapped similar sanctions on Russian oil last week. Sweden is also reportedly preparing to sell Ukraine up to 150 of its Gripen fighter jets.
The war on drugs widens. The Trump administration this week expanded its highly controversial strikes on what it claims are boats used to ferry drugs to the United States, attacking two such boats in the Pacific Ocean earlier in the week. That’s in addition to more than half a dozen strikes in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela that the U.S. military has already carried out. John has more details on the operation and its implications here.
Snapshot
Put on Your Radar
Monday, Oct. 27: Trump visits Japan as part of a broader Asia trip that also includes a visit to South Korea and the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Malaysia.
Tuesday, Oct. 28: Trump is expected to meet new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Wednesday, Oct. 29: Tanzania holds a general election.
French President Emmanuel Macron hosts the Paris Peace Forum.
The Netherlands holds early parliamentary elections.
Thursday, Oct. 30: South Korea hosts the economic leaders’ meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, where Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
By the Numbers
56: the percentage of Americans who agree with the statement that Trump is a “dangerous dictator,” according to the 16th annual American Values survey by the Public Religion Research Institute. The survey, covering a representative sample of nearly 6,000 Americans, also saw 41 percent characterize Trump as a “strong leader” who should be given power to “restore America’s greatness.” That survey, along with another poll published this week by Gallup, also shows a growing distrust of both the Democratic and Republican parties.
Quote of the Week
“We should quit reaching out to Putin and focus on defeating him enough that he reaches out to us.”
—Former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich weighed in on X about the U.S. role in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (The Trump administration subsequently ratcheted up pressure on Putin with new oil sanctions, though that’s likely more correlation than causation.)
This Week’s Most Read
- What’s the U.S. Endgame in Venezuela? by Geoff Ramsey
- Why the Democrats Are So Lost by Michael Hirsh
- Canada Shows How to Neutralize Trump’s Trade Attacks by Agathe Demarais
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
These aren’t the droids you’re looking for. The American Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit against a National Guard member and Washington, D.C., authorities on Thursday on behalf of a man who was briefly arrested last month for blasting “The Imperial March” from Star Wars—the (in)famous Darth Vader theme music—on his phone while walking behind the guardsman.
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