Follow all the action as it unfolds on POLITICO’s live blog.
BRUSSELS — European leaders meeting Thursday are hoping to stop the march of populists, help Ukraine win its war, and work out what the EU’s identity actually is. (Most of them, that is.)
Easy, right?
Much of the agenda concerns themes typically seen as the turf of the continent’s right-wing and far-right forces, from migration to social media limits to cutting red tape. But the EU’s mainstream leaders are in a race to prove they can deliver on those issues and to claw back lost political ground.
One of the toughest tests of unity will be shoring up support for Ukraine, with Belgium still holding out on the plan to use frozen Russian assets to back a €140 billion loan for Kyiv. But fault lines — or canyons — persist across a plethora of issues, from the future of Europe’s climate agenda to how to face down the U.S. on its Big Tech dominance.
Here’s your cheat sheet as the summit unfolds.
1. Climate — but call it competitiveness
Leaders will talk “climate and competitiveness,” a deliberately vague subject line that conceals a high-stakes debate on the bloc’s 2040 emissions-reduction target.
Some fear the bloc’s green targets could leash their economies. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the target but vowed to change the EU’s carbon pricing, among other things, in a bid to get everyone on board, in a letter to leaders obtained by POLITICO.
The question that remains is whether leaders can agree on useful guidance for ministers to approve the 2040 target in time for next month’s COP30 climate summit — without weakening the EU’s green laws in the process.
Von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa surely hope so. But with views diverging widely across the bloc, the debate is set to be fractious.
2. Critical minerals
Grappling with the uncomfortable reality of China’s increasing control over the flow of the minerals Western countries need for their defense, digital and green ambitions, some governments have made a final-hour push to get Beijing’s unfair practices on the agenda — stopping short of calling out China by name, of course.
“A crisis in the supply of critical raw materials is no longer a distant risk. It is on our doorstep,” von der Leyen said in a pre-summit speech to European lawmakers.
Heavyweights France, Poland and — more surprisingly — Germany have taken a more belligerent stance toward Beijing since it expanded its export bans on rare earths earlier in October, and are expected to bring it up. (Officials told POLITICO there’s resistance to this idea from other capitals, as the summit is already set to be a long one.)
3. Frozen assets hang in the balance …
At the heart of the summit is the question of how to support Ukraine’s war effort as Russia’s invasion drags into a fourth winter.
Belgium is still holding out on giving its thumbs-up to a dramatic proposal to seize €140 billion in frozen Russian cash to fund a major new tranche of aid for Kyiv.
Prime Minister Bart de Wever has voiced serious reservations because the assets are held in a Brussels-based financial depository. On Wednesday morning, Belgium said it won’t decide on whether to give the green light for the Commission to draw up the full legal proposal until after Thursday’s discussions.
As one senior EU official put it to POLITICO, “the devil is in the details.”
4. … but not Russia sanctions.
Leaders will be cheered by the knowledge that one measure to help Ukraine was unlocked Wednesday night after Slovakia lifted its veto on the EU’s latest raft of sanctions aimed at draining Moscow’s war chest.
The bulk of the package — the 19th to be imposed on Moscow since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago — focuses on sapping the Kremlin’s income by imposing restrictions on energy traders and financial institutions, many of them in third countries.
5. Telling Ukraine to buy European?
When it comes to boosting Ukraine’s access to arms, governments are split over whether Kyiv should be urged to buy from Europe, and not the U.S., with the proposed €140 billion loan.
Some leaders are insisting European preference should be a condition — with others challenging whether the EU has any right to tell the war-torn country what weapons to buy.
6. Social media ban for kids
While leaders agree more should be done to protect kids online, they’re at loggerheads over what any new rules should look like.
Earlier this month, 25 EU countries plus Norway and Iceland signed a declaration backing a minimum age for children to access social media. The leaders are expected on Thursday to endorse a “possible digital age of majority,” according to the summit’s draft conclusions, obtained by POLITICO.
But while France and Slovakia support a full ban before the age of 15 or 16, others, like the Netherlands, Greece and Spain, believe requiring parents to consent regarding their kids is good enough, setting up a fight over the exact settings of such a ban.
7. Trouble in paradise over U.S. Big Tech reliance
EU leaders are set to back a “sovereign digital transition” at the summit, but their words will mask a rift between France and Germany over how to deal with America’s overwhelming dominance in technology.
The real talks on that are expected next month at a Nov. 18 gathering between the two in Berlin.
8. Deregulation drive
The EU’s 27 member countries might not agree on a whole lot, but cutting red tape is a rare strategy that enjoys almost universal consensus.
Thursday’s summit will see countries instruct the Commission to speed up its simplification drive “as a matter of utmost priority,” according to the draft conclusions. It’s an issue close to von der Leyen’s heart — she has made tearing up onerous rules and empowering European firms a core goal of her second term.
The simplification drive is also good news for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has moaned about the EU’s regulatory overreach and its effect on American businesses. Under a trade deal von der Leyen struck with Trump in Scotland earlier this year, the EU promised its environmental regulations would “not pose undue restrictions” (though the Commission has stressed it will not lower the EU’s standards).
9. Can we talk about cars, please
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seizing the moment to urge the European Commission to overturn its de facto combustion engine ban, with the support of Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Austria.
But France has other ideas, and put forward a proposal with Spain earlier this week that would allow flexibilities on the 2035 legislation — although only for automakers that reach yet-to-be-defined local content requirements.
Both capitals want a final chance to influence the Commission’s forthcoming reform of the 2035 legislation.
Last week, Slovak PM Robert Fico threatened to block the latest sanctions package if the EU didn’t come up with a plan to help his country’s struggling automotive sector first. But the Slovak leader lifted his veto Wednesday night in return for concessions to be spelled out in the Thursday summit statement.
10. Migration
Few issues are as existential for the bloc as migration, a topic that has propelled right-wing and far-right parties (and in some cases Euroskeptics) into government across Europe.
Europe’s home affairs ministers convened in Luxembourg earlier this month to hash out strict new rules, including creating return hubs and solidarity measures for countries under migratory pressure. A plan to decide which countries those are, and how to help them, was due last Wednesday but has been delayed.
This summit will see leaders call for that work to be “intensified … as a matter of priority,” according to draft conclusions (and for Europe’s mainstream politicians facing a surging far right, it certainly is a priority). But a Commission official told POLITICO no real breakthrough is expected on Thursday.
11. And finally … another day of talks.
When he took up his role, Costa pledged to make European Councils one-day affairs, and not to let them drag over into two.
So far, he’s been successful. But with some officials already expecting talks to go late into the night, this time that could be a tall ask.
Gabriel Gavin, Hanne Cokelaere, Zia Weise, Louise Guillot, Camille Gijs, Gregorio Sorgi, Jacopo Barigazzi and Jordyn Dahl contributed to this report.
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