Hopes for a breakthrough are growing. Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the Syrian Kurdish forces in the north of , recently announced that, in principle, an agreement had been reached with the Syrian central government on a “mechanism” for integrating forces into the Syrian national army. It’s been some time coming: A had been stalled.
Ilham Ahmed, a foreign affairs official for the Kurdish-run Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, also confirmed that negotiations were taking place on reopening border crossings between AANES and Turkey. She too spoke of a positive preliminary agreement.
Border crossings closed
The border between Turkey and Syria is around 911 kilometers (566 miles) long. For both countries it is their longest border. During the Syrian civil war, Turkey only kept a few of the border crossings there open, and only to a limited extent. The crossings were controlled by different armed groups on the Syrian side and that control would sometimes change hands. Three crossings are in AANES, the Kurdish-administered areas in north-eastern Syria.
Since the fall of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad in December 2024, political and economic relations between Syria and Turkey have improved significantly. Syria’s de-facto president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, is the former leader of a militia Ankara supported in the civil war.
Turkey sees itself as an important political player in Syria and is keen to benefit economically from the new situation too. However in order for this to happen, there needs to be much greater political stability in Syria. At present, the new government doesn’t have complete control of security in the country and there have also been intercommunal clashes as well as extrajudicial killings.
Rapprochement with the Kurds
Syrian Kurds are estimated to control between a quarter and a third of Syrian territory. Almost half of the shared land border with Turkey runs through the Kurdish-controlled areas.
After more than 13 years of war, the rapprochement that is currently taking place between Damascus and the Kurds — reportedly with pressure from the US — is giving Turkish entrepreneurs hope of doing business with their Kurdish neighbors.
Until now, the three border crossings in the Kurdish-controlled areas have remained closed. Turkey says this is for security reasons. If they are reopened, as others already have been, Turkish businesses expect exports to Syria to double immediately, from $2 billion (€1.7 billion) to $4 billion (€3.5 billion).
Turkish conditions for opening border crossings
However Ankara has made it very clear that the border crossings will only be opened on one condition: They must be controlled by the Syrian national army, and not, as they currently are, by AANES troops.
The AANES region is rich in oil and raw materials, and is governed by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which allegedly maintains close ties with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party ().
The PKK is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, Turkey and other countries. though, the PKK formally announced its dissolution and disarmament. Since 2016, the Turkish army has repeatedly bombed Kurdish-controlled areas, including in Syria, to try to attack the PKK. Turkey also maintains troops in some Syrian cities, including Afrin, Jarablus and Azaz.
Driver of economic growth
Sahismail Bedirhanoglu, head of Turkey’s Southeastern Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association, reports that Turkish exports to Syria have increased by 50% since the fall of the Assad regime.
“If Damascus and the Kurds also reach an agreement, we hope the other border crossings will be opened, and trade between us will increase,” Bedirhanoglu says.
The businessman recalls that, for years, Ankara was also critical of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, which is controlled by Iraqi Kurdish politicians — until it started trading with it 20 years ago. Today, Turkey’s annual exports to Iraq are worth $13 billion and 80% of that goes to Iraqi Kurdish regions. “We’re hoping things will go the same way with Syria,” Bedirhanoglu says.
Turkish companies eager to help with reconstruction
Ahmet Fikret Kileci, coordinator of the Southeastern Anatolian Exporters’ Associations, is also optimistic. After more than 13 years, he says, new land and sea transport routes have opened up in recent months. “Based on our past experience, we can expect the movement of goods to develop very quickly,” Kileci says.
Turkish companies are now exporting to many parts of Syria, Kileci explains. “The offers many opportunities,” he says. “We can supply the construction industry with the materials it needs, from chemical elements to cement, steel and ceramics, [to] generators and energy systems.”
Mehmet Kaya, head of the Kudish-majority town Diyarbakir’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, believes there is demand in practically every sector. “Once there is an agreement with the Syrian Kurds, we can export a wide range of products, from food and household appliances to textiles and furniture,” he says.
Race to beat China
Kaya urgently wants trade relations to be extended to the whole of Syria. He is worried China may capture the large for itself if Ankara doesn’t act quickly. Chinese companies are already edging into Syrian and Iraqi markets via the Gulf states, he says, and rapidly increasing their market share.
In his view, Ankara should not only establish closer ties with Damascus, it should also take the desires and needs of other minorities in Syria into consideration. Otherwise, Kaya believes, both the region and the Turkish economy will suffer.
He is convinced that, in particular, the border crossing between the Turkish city of Nusaybin and Qamishli on the Syrian-Kurdish side could quickly become the most important gateway for trade in the region, provided it opens soon.
However the Turkish government still doesn’t trust the AANES government in northern Syria, believing it won’t easily give up control there. Additionally newspapers aligned with the Turkish government report that Damascus has requested military training and equipment from Ankara and this makes the Syrian Kurds suspicious in turn.
This article has been translated from German.
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