China’s move earlier this month to further cinch its already tight grasp on the global supply of rare earth metals led to havoc in global stock markets. But, in many ways, it came at an opportune moment for Australia’s leader.
It gave Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a timely proposition to dangle in talks with the United States.
When he sits down for his first meeting with President Trump at the White House on Monday, Mr. Albanese is widely expected to discuss an agreement offering Australia’s vast mineral resources and mining expertise to help secure supplies of the critical metals for the United States.
In positioning his country as a reliable supplier of the materials outside China, Mr. Albanese will be seeking to not only gain leverage on trade talks and a defense partnership, but to remind Mr. Trump of the value of close allies like Australia in countering China’s influence.
With Mr. Trump appearing to be freshly attuned to the vulnerability of the United States to the whims of China’s controls over the critical materials, Australia may be better poised to make that case to a president who has cast allies as freeloaders and has done little to reaffirm longstanding ties.
“The timing is exquisite,” said Ian Satchwell, a mining industry veteran and adjunct professor at the Sustainable Minerals Institute at the University of Queensland, adding that a deal would more closely tie together the two nations.
“The critical minerals thing is another string to the alliance bow,” he said.
Australia’s minister for resources, Madeleine King, will accompany Mr. Albanese on the visit, and a number of Australian mining companies have said in recent days that they have been asked to brief their nation’s representatives ahead of the White House meeting.
On Friday, Australia’s treasurer, Jim Chalmers, told reporters in Washington that the heightened global demand for the critical minerals could be an economic boon for the country. “We will make sure that we make the most of this absolutely golden opportunity for Australia,” he said.
Rare earth metals, which predominantly are mined and processed in China, are vital to a wide array of modern industries, from semiconductors and cars to fighter jets and submarines. But the cost and environmental degradation of mining and processing them, and the cut-rate production coming out of China, has made it challenging for other countries to gain a foothold.
Australia has figured into a past instance of China exerting its hold over the industry. In 2010, Beijing cut off supplies to Japan over a territorial dispute. Tokyo, in turn, invested heavily in an Australian mining company to secure an alternate source and reduce its dependence on Chinese supply.
In floating its potential to help the United States on the minerals, Australia could press on other points of contention between the countries — renewed commitment to a nuclear submarine pact known as AUKUS, relief from a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum exports, and leeway from U.S. demands to increase defense spending.
In the White House meeting, Mr. Albanese also may face pressure on Australia’s primary geopolitical dilemma: its close defense ties to the United States and massive economic reliance on China, which accounts for a third of Australia’s exports.
Last week, Mr. Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, threatened that if China goes through with the rare earth controls, then the world would need to “decouple” from the country economically.
“It’s a more uncomfortable conversation for Australia, considering the shape and structure of their economy,” said Charles Edel, the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Hayley Channer, the director of the economic security program at the United States Studies Center in Sydney, said another challenge for Mr. Albanese lies in convincing the Trump administration to invest in the mining industry within Australia, rather than tapping Australian companies to build up capacity in the United States.
“Australia’s job is to make the deal hugely compelling to the U.S. and benefit Australia overall, and not have more Australian expertise go to the U.S.,” she said.
Potential collaboration between the two countries on rare earths goes to the fundamental dynamics of why alliances are instrumental in today’s fragmented world, Ms. Channer said.
“Obviously, it’s more complicated and it takes awhile to negotiate with partners,” she said. “But in the long run, that’s how you would get the supply chain and the economies of scale you would need to beat China.”
Victoria Kim is the Australia correspondent for The New York Times, based in Sydney, covering Australia, New Zealand and the broader Pacific region.
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