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- Indeed found getting a holiday job could be tough with so many people searching and less urgent hiring.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects that retail seasonal hiring could be the lowest since 2009.
- Economist Cory Stahle suggests job seekers not wait until the typical job-posting peak to look.
The holiday job market is looking more like a strand of burned-out Christmas tree lights.
A new Indeed report using data through September showed a disconnect between job seekers and employers. On the job seeker side, there are more searches for holiday work and indications that searches are starting earlier. Meanwhile, employers have posted fewer urgent roles than in the red-hot labor market of 2021. The job-search platform also found that seasonal postings are relatively flat from last year, although down from earlier years.
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Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider the holiday job hunt is going to be more competitive than a few years ago.
“Don’t wait until we get to mid-November when job postings typically peak because clearly other people are thinking about it now,” he said.
The report adds to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’ findings published in September that there have been “limited” US announcements for seasonal work. The outplacement firm expects retail hiring to be weak, potentially hitting its lowest level since 2009.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” Andy Challenger, a senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in the report.
The US job market has been frozen, with millions of unemployed Americans actively seeking work at a time when hiring has cooled. A job during the holiday season could help them earn some income, even if they still want to look for a permanent job.
“As people are unemployed longer, this could be a way for them to say, ‘Hey, I just need to get something now. Let’s take one of these seasonal jobs, even if it’s only temporary,'” Stahle said.
Some large companies, like Bath & Body Works, have announced seasonal hiring. Gusto, a payroll and benefits platform for small and medium-sized businesses, found based on seasonal hiring in May and June that if trends continue, traditionally in-person gigs that are less affected by tariffs could be bright spots.
“Nontariff-impacted sectors like accommodation and tourism definitely are places where hiring is likely to be up this season compared to last year,” Andrew Chamberlain, the principal economist at Gusto, said. “In retail and food service, it looked like all the signs are pointing toward a scale back.”
Chamberlain suggested that job hunters potentially apply to sectors less affected by macroeconomic policy and trade uncertainty.
“American consumers are kind of saying, ‘Well, we’ll pay for the flight and the hotel, but we’re going to skip the souvenir shop,'” Chamberlain said.
He added: “If this is any window into what’s going to happen this holiday season, that retail story could be a canary in the coal mine, where if those businesses that usually have that big surge in November, December are already pulling back this summer, it tells you they’re not exactly expecting a very merry holiday season.”
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