BRUSSELS — NATO is hunting for ways to plug holes in its vulnerable air defenses in response to growing incursions by swarms of drones and Russian jets brazenly entering its skies.
On Wednesday, defense ministers from the 32-member alliance meet in Brussels, and a key issue will be whether national rules are hampering NATO’s top military officer from effectively tackling the aerial threats.
In recent weeks, suspicious unmanned aerial vehicles have violated Belgian, German, Danish and Norwegian airspace, Russian drones were tracked over Romania and shot down over Poland, and the military alliance was forced to dispatch fighter jets after three Russian MiG-31 aircraft loitered in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.
In response, NATO has unveiled a new Eastern Sentry program that shifts warplanes and air defense systems to frontline countries.
But the threat has also opened a broader debate about whether the alliance’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, has enough clarity over what he can and cannot do, given limits called “national caveats” that allies can set for their forces in NATO missions.
“It’s no secret that the more ‘national caveats’ there are on — especially our fighter jet assets — the harder it is for SACEUR to respond immediately,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said ahead of the summit. “Those are conversations that we’re going to continue to have within the alliance and to make sure that … where they can be reduced, they can be reduced.”
Whitaker also said Washington expects NATO allies to announce “big” spending pledges for Ukrainian weapons purchases from the U.S. during Wednesday’s meeting.
Keeping guard
Publicly, NATO insists it already has all the authority it needs to act on aerial threats.
“I can assure you … when these [Russian] planes would pose a threat, we can do the ultimate,” alliance chief Mark Rutte said on Monday. “As long as they don’t pose a threat, we will gently guide them out of our airspace.”
But while Grynkewich is “happy” with the overarching marching orders set by alliance members for each mission — its so-called rules of engagement — NATO’s different aerial missions are “still a patchwork,” said a senior alliance diplomat, who like others quoted in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely on closed-door discussions.
As NATO seeks to strengthen its integrated air defense systems, “SACEUR needs flexibility, he needs a margin of maneuvering,” the diplomat said, “and he needs to get rid as much as possible of national caveats.”
At Wednesday’s meeting, ministers will assess Eastern Sentry. There have been no proven Russian incursions since the Estonian incident.
In January, the alliance kicked off a similar scheme, called Baltic Sentry, to patrol the waterway following incidents of suspicious deep-sea cable-cutting, after which the number of new episodes dropped.
“If we look at the success of Baltic Sentry, we are confident the new Eastern Sentry with contributions from many allies will make a credible contribution to deter Russia from future airspace incursions,” said a second senior NATO diplomat.
Washington, too, is likely to help with intelligence gathering and coordination for the scheme, one U.S. defense official told POLITICO.
Flexible response
Still, strengthening allied air defenses may also require giving a broader mandate to Grynkewich.
Historically, national caveats have restricted NATO from deploying troops to certain locations and have limited the use of assets for specific purposes, said Oana Lungescu, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank and former NATO spokesperson, which “made things much harder to coordinate.”
For air defense, it’s about “having greater clarity” on what these limits are for “SACEUR to deploy forces and capabilities,” she said.
Grynkewich is examining the rules on flexibility in missions and national caveats under Eastern Sentry that would incrementally enhance NATO’s response, according to two NATO diplomats and one NATO official. He is expected to present his proposals to allies next year, one of the diplomats and the official added.
Beefing up air defenses along the alliance’s eastern flank and in the Baltic arena will also require new investments and “includes building a layered network of sensors integrated with a common AI-enabled control system,” said a second NATO official, adding that the alliance is using Central Europe “as a test case” for such technologies.
Defense ministers are also expected to discuss joint initiatives between the EU and NATO. The bloc is spearheading several defense initiatives, including its €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program, and is expected to unveil a sweeping defense strategy for 2030 on Thursday.
Last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged to build a “drone wall” to protect frontline states from Russia.
Although the plan has received a mixed reception in the EU, NATO allies broadly back the idea of Brussels helping finance drone-related defenses, two NATO diplomats said. But that can only work if allies and Grynkewich retain full control over the equipment and how it is used, they added.
The post NATO weighs options to sew up ‘patchwork’ air defenses appeared first on Politico.
