A Reality Check on Peace

How close is peace in the Middle East?

President Trump was effusive in his assessment of the cease-fire deal that, so far, has brought 20 hostages back to Israel and freed some 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli prisons: “It’s peace in the Middle East.” When Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “one of the most important days for world peace in 50 years,” Trump retorted, “Only 50?” “Maybe 100,” Rubio said.

The reality on the ground is a little more complicated. I wanted to understand how close the hostage-prisoner exchange has brought the region to a lasting peace. (After all, we’ve seen something like this before.) So I called up my colleague David Halbfinger, who is in Jerusalem and covering the cease-fire closely.

Is everything going according to Trump’s plan so far?

Everything has happened according to plan in Phase 1. But Phase 1 is really the low-hanging fruit of this plan. There’s a good chance that this could be the high-water mark of this whole process.

What are the potential sticking points in the next phase?

Hamas has said it wants a full Israeli withdrawal. The Israelis are saying they’re not pulling out until they get everything that was in the Trump plan. So we have the ingredients for a standoff.

Israel and Trump both want Gaza to be run by someone other than Hamas. But Hamas hasn’t agreed to lay down its weapons. So who steps into that breach? Israel refuses to entertain the idea of letting the Palestinian Authority go into Gaza. But then where will the Palestinian technocrats who are supposed to take charge under Trump’s plan come from?

What is the security situation in Gaza at the moment? Who is maintaining order?

We’ve seen what looks like Hamas beginning to reassert itself on the ground in Gaza. I think they’re trying very hard to show that there is no vacuum.

What about this idea of international troops securing the cease-fire?

That is one of the most interesting ideas in the Trump plan: bringing in an international stabilization force from a number of countries, including from the Arab world. We’ve heard of everybody from the Emiratis to the Indonesians, the Turks, even the E.U., being willing to take part. But will any of those countries want to come in and have to play the role of getting Hamas to turn over its weapons? Or are they going to wait for disarmament before they step in? And, how long will it take to train up this kind of force?

Everywhere you turn, there are these unresolved issues.

And yet some people describe this as the best hope for peace since the Oslo accords.

The fact that you have so many countries in the Arab and Muslim world backing the U.S. and its push not just for a cease-fire, but for a greater peace, is enormously promising. So there’s reason to see this as a promising moment. It’s just, again, easier to see this running into great difficulty than it is to see it accelerating from here.

All parties have a way to claim victory from this deal. Does that help improve the chance that it holds?

You’re right, everybody is declaring victory. Hamas certainly is. They’ve claimed they put the issue of Palestinian statehood back at the top of the international agenda, that Israel is isolated, that they have survived the war, that they returned nearly 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli prisons. And all of those things are true.

Israel can point to the fact that it has brought home the hostages and severely weakened Hamas. I don’t know how much Israel’s isolation on the world stage is also motivating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do what he’s doing. But when the U.S., which is perhaps its last and certainly its most important ally, applied pressure, Israel came to the table.

And if the fighting pauses and worldwide attention turns elsewhere, I think Israelis will have a chance to assess just how much damage has been done to their country’s reputation. And they’re going to want to address that isolation. I mean, you heard Netanyahu talk about making peace in a way he hasn’t ordinarily done.

So some cause for hope?

Yes, some cause for hope.

Interested in providing feedback on this newsletter? Take our short survey here.

MORE TOP NEWS

Ukrainian officials say they have a strategy to end the war: striking western Russia, where much of the country’s oil industry is concentrated.
My colleagues traveled to a secret Ukrainian launch site used to attack Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Asian markets fell even as Trump downplayed the threat of new tariffs on China.
A new government was appointed in France, but the political turmoil isn’t over.
Three economists shared the Nobel Prize in Economics for their work on how technology drives growth.
At least 42 people were killed when a passenger bus plunged off a road in a mountainous area of South Africa.
A U.S. anti-abortion group has set its sights on Britain. Our correspondents explain why.

SPORTS

Football: Premier League clubs spent more than $4 billion during the transfer window. The Athletic looked at the best and worst deals.

Tennis: After Novak Djokovic vomited in the stifling heat at the Shanghai Masters, one player asked, “Why doesn’t the A.T.P. have a heat rule?”

Cricket: The Australia captain, Pat Cummins, said he was unlikely to play in the first Ashes Test.

WORDS OF THE DAY

Barbie waist

— An emerging plastic surgery procedure that aims to reduce a patient’s waist by remodeling the ribs. The result is an average waist reduction of eight to 12 centimeters.

MORNING READ

For decades, the coca leaf — the raw material for cocaine — has been treated as contraband. But in its natural form, it is something else entirely: a mild stimulant chewed and brewed in communities across the Andes.

Coca is such an important part of life in Bolivia that its government is leading a campaign to press the U.N. to remove the leaf from the world’s list of most dangerous drugs. Read more.

AROUND THE WORLD

What they’re watching in … Pakistan

Pakistan’s latest reality contest has all the hallmarks of a dating show like “Love Island,” except for one thing: The makers of “Lazawaal Ishq” (which means “Eternal Love” in Urdu) are adamant that it’s not a dating show at all.

They say it’s all about finding a partner for marriage. That’s because, before its first episode aired on YouTube, some people on social media denounced the program as un-Islamic or contrary to Pakistan’s values.

In Pakistan, social norms still favor matchmaking arranged by families, but dating apps are growing in popularity. So is “Lazawaal Ishq” dating or matchmaking? The question is fueling a heated debate online, and hundreds of thousands of people have watched the first two episodes on YouTube.

As a newly arrived correspondent, my introduction to Pakistani TV couldn’t be any better. — Elian Peltier, who covers Pakistan and Afghanistan.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Watch: Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite” is a propulsive thriller about potential nuclear catastrophe.

Listen: This artist is like Édith Piaf, but with techno and teen angst.

Read: Here are six new books our critics and editors recommend.

Renovate: Dirty pastel colors have become the wall paint of choice in fancy households.

RECIPE

For many in Sudan, the morning starts with shai magnan, or burned milk tea. The milk is cooked down until it browns and caramelizes. Black tea is infused in a separate pot with warm spices, sweetened with sugar, then strained and poured into the hot milk.

Our cooking columnist Yewande Komolafe describes the drink as “an aromatic arrangement, a gentle nudge, a subtle voice asking me to open my eyes and begin my day.”