Questions linger about whether the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas will hold, and how — or if — the parties will move on to the far thornier issues in the U.S.-sponsored plan that led to it. Still, it’s clear that this breakthrough signals the beginning of the end.
That is, it is clear to most except the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is minimizing the deal’s scope while selling it as a diplomatic, moral and security triumph: Israel keeps troops in most of Gaza even after freeing the hostages, with no firm timeline for further withdrawal.
The government voted to approve the first phase of the agreement — the hostage and prisoner exchange, the military pullback in Gaza, increased humanitarian aid to the strip, and the cease-fire. It did not address the harder issues: the full withdrawal to the security perimeter, Gaza’s governance and “a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood,” as later phases of the deal called for.
Journalists close to Mr. Netanyahu were blunt: “There’s no phase two. That’s clear to everyone, right?” Amit Segal wrote on social media. “What we have now is a hostage deal, and a cease-fire while talks continue in good faith.” The working assumption in Jerusalem, it seems, is that while full-scale combat won’t resume, the Israeli military may keep striking wherever it detects threats.
Yet here’s the uncomfortable truth: This “victory” is actually a defeat — a necessary and blessed defeat — of this government’s messianic vision. In fact, the agreement directly contradicts what the government has sold Israelis for two years: the promise of total victory and the destruction of Hamas.
Mr. Netanyahu repeatedly rejected cease-fires, calling any pause a surrender to Hamas and terrorism, demanding total victory. Ministers vowed to obliterate Hamas’s military and end its governance permanently.
The government painted an alluring picture of Gaza’s transformation. Mass evacuations would relocate Palestinians. The Defense Ministry set up a Gaza “voluntary” emigration directorate and in September Mr. Netanyahu reportedly met with defense officials and cabinet ministers and discussed plans to start moving Gazans out.
Officials hailed the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an Israeli-overseen aid organization that supplanted U.N. and other relief efforts. Israeli settlements in Gaza would be rebuilt and Gaza would turn into a “real-estate bonanza.” West Bank territory would be largely annexed. The Palestinian Authority would have no role in Gaza’s postwar governance.
Reality has demolished nearly every promise.
Hamas survives. Under the entire plan President Trump proposed, which Mr. Netanyahu agreed to, the group would disarm but not disappear, with leaders offered amnesty or exile. The organization would still have some control even as it theoretically surrenders power. Indeed, within hours of the Israeli military’s withdrawal, Hamas began deploying security personnel to Gaza City and instructed the public to obey them. Based on previous cease-fires, the organization will quickly show more signs of governance by providing municipal services, managing hospitals and running aid distribution.
The hard truth is that Hamas is part of the Palestinian polity. It should have never become the de facto sovereign of a territory with independent international relations and control over international crossings, but it was Israel’s policy over the past four decades that turned Hamas into the monstrous organization it has become — allowing the Muslim Brotherhood, the group from which Hamas derived, to operate with relatively little oversight in Gaza in the early 1970s as a counter to the Palestine Liberation Organization and later facilitating the transfer of billions of dollars from Qatar to the Hamas government.
Containing Hamas, mitigating its negative influence and even disarming it are reasonable aspirations, which might be achieved through a long-term effort. But contrary to the Israeli government’s vows, Hamas is not going anywhere.
Neither are the people of Gaza, despite pressure from the far right to claim the territory for Israel. Mr. Trump’s plan makes explicit that it “will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.” The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is excluded from the current humanitarian coordination structure, which is for now — surprise, surprise — back largely at the United Nations. The idea of Israeli settlements in Gaza? Abandoned, according to the plan. West Bank annexation? Shelved after Mr. Trump said on Sept. 25 that he would not allow it.
The government’s limited view of the agreement — whether calculated or delusional — is at odds with Mr. Trump’s vision. It ignores his commitment to more than a pause in fighting. “This is more than Gaza. This is peace in the Middle East, and it’s an incredible thing,” he said on the Fox News program “Hannity” on Wednesday.
The government must also reckon with the determination of other interested nations. Seeking to bolster their leadership in the region and standing with the Trump administration, Arab states are reportedly open to pushing Hamas toward disarmament, however unsatisfying the results may be to Israeli eyes. The Gulf states, Egypt and Turkey are backing a multinational stabilization force, pledging funding for reconstruction and promising to push the Palestinian Authority into genuine reforms so it can govern Gaza again.
What made Mr. Netanyahu make a decision against his natural inclination to kick the can down the road, as well as agree to pretty much everything he said he opposed? Simply, Mr. Trump. Israel’s botched attempt to assassinate members of the Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, began a cascade of events that led the president and his Qatari, Egyptian and Turkish counterparts to pressure Israel on one side, and Hamas on the other, into signing onto a framework agreement and apparently negotiating the details later. Saying “No,” or “Yes, but,” and playing for time was not an option.
It is understandable why Mr. Netanyahu’s government celebrates the agreement but at the same time winks that the cease-fire may be temporary and a strategic achievement. Admitting otherwise means acknowledging an unbearable truth.
That is that Israel’s longest major war in history, hostages held captive for over two years in unbearable conditions and many dying in captivity, some 2,000 Israeli casualties, more than 67,000 Palestinian deaths according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health, Gaza reduced to rubble, Israel’s international isolation — all of it led not to the promised vision but to a negotiated settlement resurrecting the very ideas Mr. Netanyahu spent his career opposing. His defeat is a victory for Israelis, Palestinians and others in the region who seek an alternative to prolonged bloodshed.
Shira Efron is the distinguished Israel policy chair and a senior fellow at RAND.
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