Israel and Hamas on Wednesday reached an agreement to advance an initial phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, which will see all of the remaining hostages in the coastal enclave released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, as well as the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Israelis and Palestinians are cautiously celebrating the deal, which paves the way for a cease-fire and further negotiations that could bring a permanent end to the two-year war. Even after Trump announced the agreement, Israeli Defense Forces reportedly continued to conduct strikes in Gaza, a sign of Israel’s readiness to continue the war against Hamas if negotiations fall through in the days ahead.
But a cease-fire is set to begin tomorrow if the Israeli government votes to approve the deal on Thursday. Shosh Bedrosian, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that after the cease-fire begins Hamas will have 72 hours to return all of the hostages. Bedrosian also said that Israel will withdraw to a line in Gaza that will leave it in control of roughly 53 percent of the territory.
Trump on Thursday said that the hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday. He also signaled that he’s likely to travel to the Middle East in the coming days for an official peace deal signing.
If the truce holds, it will bring a much-needed reprieve for Palestinians in Gaza after 24 months of devastating fighting that’s estimated to have killed over 67,000 people and left the enclave in ruins. Aid organizations are also optimistic that a cease-fire will help increase the flow of desperately needed supplies and assistance into Gaza, where a famine was declared in August.
Despite the sense of optimism ushered in by the deal for a “first phase” of Trump’s plan, there are still many hurdles to overcome in terms of reaching the next stage and the ultimate goal of ending the war. It’s also unclear precisely what the next phase of this process might look like, given the major gaps remaining between the warring parties.
Here are the biggest obstacles moving forward:
Hamas’s disarmament. Hamas has not yet agreed to lay down its arms as part of a peace agreement, which is among the requirements of the 20-point plan unveiled by Trump last Monday.
Israel launched the war in Gaza with the goal of destroying the militant group following the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023. While it’s widely agreed that completely eliminating the group and its ideology is impossible, disarmament would offer the type of security assurances that Israel will want as part of any final agreement. Israel has been clear that it will not sign off on any deal that does not require Hamas to disarm.
Though Trump’s proposal offers Hamas members amnesty in exchange for disarming and committing to peace, the militant group will be wary of doing so given it has long derived legitimacy from fighting and posing a threat toward Israel, a country that Hamas committed to destroy when it was founded in the late 1980s. Some reports indicate that Hamas could be open to partially disarming, but anything short of full disarmament is extremely unlikely to be acceptable to the Israeli government. “Hamas must disarm,” Gideon Saar, the Israeli foreign minister, told Fox News ahead of the cabinet vote on Trump’s plan.
Saar also said that Israel is committed to Trump’s plan and doesn’t intend to renew the war. But if Hamas won’t give up its weapons, it could conceivably provide Israel with a justification to resume its offensive in Gaza.
Postwar governance of Gaza. Trump’s plan envisions a technocratic committee of Palestinians temporarily taking over day-to-day governance in Gaza. An international transitional body, chaired by Trump, would oversee this body and Gaza’s redevelopment. Under the plan, the United States would also collaborate with Arab and international partners to immediately deploy a temporary international stabilization force that would train and assist vetted Palestinian police forces in the territory.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, has signaled that it is willing to hand over administration of the territory to a technocratic body. But that does not mean that Hamas has agreed to relinquish all power and play no role in postwar governance of Gaza. Israel and the United States have both maintained that Hamas cannot retain power in any capacity after the war.
Though Hamas is greatly diminished after two years of fighting, the militant group is estimated to still have around 15,000 fighters. Even if it agrees to give up power on paper, it’s difficult to see Hamas disappearing completely.
For all of these reasons and more, the future governance of Gaza will be a thorny issue in the negotiations to come—particularly as Western governments push for the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and a two-state solution, prospects that are both opposed by Netanyahu.
Israeli withdrawal. Trump’s plan calls for a staged withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The White House recently released a map showing the line Israeli forces will withdraw to as part of the initial phase. But precise boundaries of Israel’s withdrawal and the timeline of the pullout remain unclear.
Though Hamas has insisted that Israel completely withdraw from Gaza to ensure the war cannot be restarted, Netanyahu also recently signaled that a full pullout is not on the table. The issue is set to be a sticking point in the talks ahead.
The Israeli far right. Netanyahu leads a fragile coalition government, and there are questions over whether it will collapse as a result of this deal. Far-right members like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have expressed opposition to the Trump plan and signaled they could leave the government over the agreement. But Israeli opposition leaders have offered Netanyahu a security net to see the deal through, while signaling they would later take steps to topple the government.
While Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war in Gaza to keep his coalition together and maintain power, it’s far too early to say whether the prospect of his government falling apart and early elections will lead the prime minister to take steps to derail the deal. With Trump personally invested in this plan—as he pushes to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize—Netanyahu is also under considerable pressure from the leader of Israel’s top ally to see this process through.
The post The Biggest Hurdles to the Next Phase of Trump’s Gaza Deal appeared first on Foreign Policy.
