At 92, , entrenched in power for 43 years, is pushing for an eighth term, while a fractured opposition scrambles to front a challenge that could break his long, unshaken grip in .
Early this week, Biya made a rare public appearance at his first major rally in the far northern city of Maroua. There, he pledged to reinforce regional security, tackle youth unemployment, and upgrade infrastructure.
For Biya, is not just about holding office but proving to domestic and international audiences that his rule still carries legitimacy.
His most visible challenger, Maurice Kamto, was disqualified from the race after the elections body, ELECAM, declared his party had broken nomination rules. Critics slammed the ruling as politically driven and another blow to hopes of a free, fair and transparent election.
“There is still very low public trust,” Violet Fokum, a Cameroonian governance and elections analyst, said.
“Citizens still view the process as more symbolic, rather than the genuine competitive events where we have maybe a replacement,” she told DW.
Is Cameroon ready for change?
She added that the sudden withdrawal of opposition figures Akere Muna and Ateki Seta, both of whom recently quit the race to back longtime politician Bello Bouba Maigari, has created about whether real change is possible.
Muna announced his exit on September 28, throwing his support behind Maigari, shortly after Seta also bowed out to endorse the 78-year-old, who once served as prime minister.
“We are just hoping that things get better, because the situation of the country is getting tougher by the day,” One Cameroonian in the capital Yaounde, who wished to remain anonymous, told DW.
“We are hoping that whoever wins the election should see into the situations, the problems the citizens are facing. So that’s just all the reason why we ought to vote,” a businesswoman, who also chose anonymity, told DW.
“We’ve done a lot of sensitization for people to register to vote,” Fokum said, pointing to “a marked increase in number of persons who have registered.”
Safety concerns for voters in the Anglophone regions
But that enthusiasm collides with practical fears. For years, separatist lockdowns in Cameroon’s Anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions have . Now, similar tactics threaten election day.
“Given the intensity of it, I start questioning myself if we’ll be able to go out on the election day to vote,” Fokum said.
“How do you get to your polling station to vote? With the lockdowns, no cars moving and all, how do you get to your polling stations to vote?” she asked.
Opposition weakness is another recurring theme. When asked whether the field is strong enough to unseat Biya, Fokum was blunt. “I will say no, I don’t think they are strong enough.”
She pointed to transactional politics behind recent deals, noting reports that “Akere Muna and Ateki [are] giving their votes to Maigari on condition that they are given a ministerial position or made prime minister, should he win the presidency.
Such bargaining, she noted, reinforces the idea of “power mongers … just people want to satisfy their own self-interest, rather than substantively representing the interest of the people.”
Women and young voters could decide the election outcome
Despite the grim landscape, new and female voters. Candidates like symbolize that impulse — a woman trying to break into Cameroon’s male-dominated power structure and speak to younger, urban voters. However, she faces formidable barriers, from limited campaign funding to meager national media coverage.
Cameroonian tech entrepreneur Rebecca Enonchong said the public mood ahead of the vote feels unlike anything she has witnessed, describing a broad, determined push for change that cuts across society.
“I have never seen the kind of energy that we’re seeing now,” Enonchong told DW, adding that it’s very palpable.
“You can really sense a very different energy. The Cameroonians are fed up and they’ve had enough, and they want change and they want it now,” she said.
“It’s at every level of society, from the street kids all the way to even some very big businesspeople and officials. Of course, they’re not going to say it openly, but everybody is fed up and is not ready to have another seven years of Paul Biya.”
Fokum noted that despite women making up about 51% of Cameroon’s population, Ndam Njoya does not have the support of the women, despite being the only female candidate.
“Maybe the strategies she’s using are not effective enough, or we are not yet aware that we need to stand behind her, or maybe her manifesto is not clear enough,” Fokum added.
Uneven playing field amongst candidates
Analysts say Ndam Njoya’s campaign shows a deeper hunger for inclusive politics but also how structural inequities persist. Without equal access to resources or fair airtime, opposition candidates rarely get beyond symbolic campaigns.
For the opposition, even a strong second-place showing by any single candidate would be considered an achievement. It could prove there is an appetite for change and offer a foundation to build on, but fragmentation, combined with barriers set by institutions loyal to Biya, makes that outcome uncertain.
For Fokum, if the turnout falters because of insecurity or cynicism, it would reinforce the perception that elections are “symbolic” rather than pathways to renewal. But if voters defy the obstacles, the election could become an unexpected inflection point.
Edited by: C Mwakideu
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