Democrats say they had no choice. After eight months of getting flattened by Trump on policy and programs at home and abroad with no sound counter message, they couldn’t just roll over again. (Well, maybe they could have. But they didn’t!) I wasn’t sure they picked the right fight. I thought shutting down the government would hand the president another opportunity to fire thousands more federal workers and dismantle agencies he doesn’t like. But I’ve come around.
All it took was a chance encounter at a Starbucks with a Democratic senator who heard me out when I voiced my concern. “It had to be about something,” he said emphatically, “We made it about something, which is health care, our strongest suit.”
The current impasse is on the surface over Democrats’ demands to extend Obamacare subsidies that make health care affordable for millions of Americans. And with notices from insurance companies confirming premium jumps of 75 percent or more for families, young people and small businesses—such that will make health plans unaffordable—the Democrats have an issue that is relatable for millions of people.
But this is about more than passing a budget or finding a way to make health care affordable. It’s about Dems making a big play for working class Americans with a government shutdown the best and perhaps only chance before the 2026 midterms to crystallize the argument that only one party really cares about your lives and livelihoods (if you’re not rich) in a way that reaches enough voters to make a difference. And it’s not Trump’s party.
“I think the Democrats anticipated Trump would over play his hand on rhetoric and policy,” Jack Pitney, professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College, told The Daily Beast of the shutdown grandstanding. “He has never understood the issue (of health care) even on a very basic level.”
After promising an easy and quick fix to replace Obamacare in his first term, Trump threw up his hands in 2017 declaring, “Nobody knew health care could be so complicated!” He calls Obamacare a “mess” and a “disaster,” but has never put forward a plan of his own.
Trump is counting on people buying the lie that the shutdown is about denying government benefits to people in the country illegally. Non-citizens do not receive government health care coverage, but if they show up at a hospital needing emergency care, the law requires they be helped. Passed by Congress, it was signed by Republican President Reagan in 1986. Some states set aside money for this reality, a vulnerability Trump is exploiting.
But this big lie “has definitely not landed like they thought it would,” noted longtime Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “I was worried, but it’s not sticking. People are not fooled,” she continued. “People don’t like the tone… His style is wearing out with people, particularly with women voters and they’re the decision makers on health care. Women are fed up with his style.”
The public so far seems to place more fault on the Republicans. “The numbers are definitely holding up strong,” said Lake, citing a YouGov poll that has the public blaming Trump and GOP over Democrats, 41 percent to 30 percent. “At least temporarily we’re winning because we are for something, we are fighting for something. One of our biggest problems is we’re seen as weak. We’re seen as too weak, not too liberal.”
(59 percent of Americans according to Gallup worry a great deal about health-care expenses. Nearly 80 percent of Americans and 57 percent of Republicans favor extending Obamacare subsidies in a KFF poll.)
If I reached out to a Republican senator, pollster or a right-leaning think tank, I’m sure I would hear the opposite. But for now, Dems think they’re in a fight that is a winner even if they lose. Nobody likes seeing the government closed, but they’re holding out for a tangible compromise, and their side is not wobbling. At least not yet. Republicans have their eye on three retiring Democratic senators: Gary Peters of Michigan, Dick Durbin of Illinois and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. Free of political constraints, they could break with the party line. Another possibility, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who is in a tough race next year, has shown no signs he could cave.
Of course, facts on the ground—like crippling flight delays and Trump’s latest threat to withhold back pay for government workers—might peel off some support. But Trump may also realize that a prolonged standoff is hurting his side and decide to compromise, said Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at the center-left think tank Third Way.
In a policy memo drafted in August, when the possibility of another shutdown was coming into view, Third Way argued that among the many targets and outrages provided by Trump, Democrats should make health care costs their non-negotiable demand. “This is the rare shutdown fight in which the policy, politics, and leverage all align.”
Given their current standing, it’s fair to say that Dems could still mess this up. They could dig in too deep. They might miss the moment for compromise even as it comes into view, inflicting too much pain on voters. A potential outcome, extending Obamacare subsidies for a year and then phasing them out, would allow Trump to spin it to make it look like his win.
Still, as the Third Way memo put it, “They either will succeed in protecting Americans from massive cost hikes or they will show the public they are the only party fighting to keep health care affordable. Both outcomes are wins.”
It’s like the ending of Rocky, added Claremont McKenna’s Jack Pitney. Sylvester Stallone ‘s character loses in the ring “but he’s still standing at the end,” and that is victory enough. Well, perhaps less “enough” and more “too much” for Americans who are unable to pay for their health care costs, of course—but Democrats will be banking on them bringing in-the-red energy to go blue at the polls. It’s there that their votes may bring them (back) the policies they were promised.
The post Opinion: How Democrats Can Win the Shutdown Fight Even If They Lose appeared first on The Daily Beast.
