NATO’s air policing mission is getting riskier for the F-35s, Gripens, F-16s, and other fighter jets at the front

• Russia has increased its incursions into NATO airspace, seen by the West as tests of resolve.
• NATO has defenses and a host of F-35s, F-16s, and Gripens ready to respond, but choices to make.
• It doesn’t want to escalate, and a former US fighter pilot described the role of pilots.

More frequent and more provocative Russian aircraft incursions into NATO airspace and rising pressure within the alliance to respond with force are raising the risks for front-line pilots flying air policing missions.

NATO’s air policing mission monitors the skies with advanced ground-based radar and surveillance systems, air defenses ready, and allied jets, such as F-35s, F-16s, Eurofighter Typhoons, and Gripens, always on standby and regularly on patrol. Sweden’s Gripens are joining the mission for the first time this year.

NATO jets have never shot down a crewed Russian aircraft in allied airspace, not even during the Cold War.

These defensive missions, deterrents dependent on pilots patrolling with caution and discipline, are becoming tougher as Russia tests alliance reactions and restraint. With new shootdown warnings coming out of NATO, there is a growing risk that a run-of-the-mill intercept could spiral.

Russian aircraft incursions into NATO airspace increased after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. More recent concerns include 19 drones in Polish airspace and three Russian MiG-31 jets breaching Estonian airspace for over 12 minutes.

Western officials say it’s testing alliance responses — what radars light up, which planes scramble into the air and with what armaments, which bases they deploy from, and how pilots conduct themselves in the air.

John Venable, a former US Air Force fighter pilot and a Mitchell Institute aviation expert, told Business Insider that Russia appears to be “baiting NATO,” looking for “the opportunity to tell the Russian people that they are at risk.” He said that he suspects “restraint on the West’s part, up to a certain threshold, is going to be required.”

NATO’s dilemma is thus a balancing act — demonstrating strength and resolve without taking the bait and escalating unnecessarily.

Clear directions for pilots

NATO air policing along its eastern edge has intensified, including with the launch of Operation Eastern Sentry last month, which brought new aircraft. Some countries have signaled that they want to use force in response to some Russian airspace violations; however, not everyone holds that view.

Under these circumstances, Venable said, tensions and risk increase, “but fighter pilots are used to handling that.”

Maintaining stability at a time when Russia appears increasingly willing to put its pilots and assets at risk “for a flashpoint” demands clear instructions for pilots, said Venable, who flew missions enforcing no-fly zones for Operation Northern Watch.

He said he expects to see “discipline on the NATO side,” even as Russia shows “more and more a lack of discipline.”

For pilots, “You want to be able to launch the aircraft to intercept an inbound bogey, a potential threat, on time,” Venable said. “Then, when you’re executing the intercept, you want to do that right.”

“You don’t want to cross any lines,” he added, “and you also don’t want to put you or your wingman at risk.”

As long as instructions from militaries and NATO are clear, it’s “not an issue.” Pilots, typically, know the rules of engagement and authority they have been given, and if in some situation, they were given the authority to shoot down jets, they would, likewise, understand “it’s their responsibility to do just that.”

“The pressure on those pilots is really delineated by the rules of engagement and the special instructions,” he said, adding that he is confident Western pilots are “going to do their best to avoid conflict wherever they can” rather than engage in unnecessary risk.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius notably said this week that while his country needs more anti-drone defenses, it must be careful not to fall into “Putin’s escalation trap.”

Reacting to gray zone aggression

Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace come as many European countries also report a spate of hybrid attacks, including sabotage actions and assassination efforts, with officials calling it a Russian “shadow war.”

“We are not at war, but we are not at peace either,” NATO chief Mark Rutte said this year. Responding to gray zone aggression is complicated, as it falls below the threshold of war.

Rutte said last month that decisions over whether to fire on intruding aircraft are “taken in real time, are always based on available intelligence,” including the threat the aircraft poses.

He said NATO will always react proportionately and act if necessary to protect people, cities, and infrastructure, but that doesn’t always mean shooting down jets.

The secretary-general commended the Italian F-35s and Swedish and Finnish jets that responded in Estonia, as well as the Dutch F-35s, Polish F-16s, and German air defenses that responded to drones over Poland. The drones were shot down. The encroaching MiGs were not, and he said that was the right call.

“Our pilots are doing precisely what they are trained to do when there’s a potential risk of incursion. This is what we plan for. What we train for,” he said. “And it works.”

While NATO is troubled by Russian aggression, it is unclear if Russia wants war with the alliance, which could bring tremendous airpower and more to a fight, but NATO isn’t banking on what it has today being sufficient deterrence, especially as Russia fields new capabilities like massed drones paired with missiles that allies aren’t yet ready for.

Russia’s incursions are a clear wake-up call that the West lacks enough of the kind of layered air defenses that the Ukrainians have proved are key against Russia. That NATO responded to Russian drones with its most advanced jets illustrates that there are gaps in NATO defenses that Russia could exploit.

But new investments and innovations are being directed at closing them before it’s too late.

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