Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada will have his second White House meeting with President Trump on Tuesday. Unlike many other nations, Canada has not been able to strike a trade deal with Mr. Trump, and that has put pressure on Mr. Carney to try to win at least some tariff relief during the meeting.
But Canadian officials remained largely silent before leaving for Washington, and people in the industries most affected by Mr. Trump’s trade war said they had little expectation of any significant breakthroughs.
Canada’s Tariff Burden
Mr. Trump has imposed a general 35 percent tariff on Canadian exports based on his claim, which is refuted by data, that Canada is a significant source of migrants and fentanyl for the United States.
That broad tariff does have a significant exemption. It excludes products that qualify as North American under the free trade agreement signed by Canada, the United States and Mexico during Mr. Trump’s first term, which make up a majority of Canadian exports.
But Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs on several key exports from Canada — automobiles, steel, aluminum and, most recently, softwood lumber — calling the measures a matter of national security.
Those tariffs have already had significant effects. General Motors is planning to lay off 2,000 workers at a pickup-truck factory in Oshawa, Ontario. In the same province, Stellantis suspended the overhauling of a factory in Brampton to produce a new Jeep model, leaving the plant idle.
Canada has set aside 10 billion Canadian dollars, or $7.1 billion, in loans for large steel and aluminum companies affected by the U.S. tariffs.
Offering Concessions
Canada was one of the few countries in the world, along with China, to retaliate against Mr. Trump with tariffs of its own on U.S. exports.
Mr. Carney led the Liberal Party to victory in April, in part, by promising to fight back against American tariffs. But Mr. Carney, an economist who led the central banks in Canada and England, has never been as enthusiastic about retaliatory tariffs as his political opponents in the Conservative Party and in the previous Liberal government, which introduced them.
Canada has since lifted most of the reciprocal tariffs against the United States, except those applied to the same products covered by Mr. Trump’s national security tariffs.
Mr. Carney also canceled a tax on American tech companies he had inherited from the previous government. Mr. Trump had called off negotiations with Canada because of the tax.
Political Pressure
Mr. Carney had held elected office only for a few weeks before his first meeting at the White House in May. So while the session produced no breakthroughs on trade, none were expected.
But since then, Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party leader, has increasingly been arguing that Mr. Carney is ineffective at dealing with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Poilievre recently took the unusual step of offering to negotiate with the United States. The leaders of parties not in power have typically avoided directly engaging with foreign governments because of the potential for fragmenting Canada’s positions on various issues.
On Monday, Mr. Poilievre posted a letter he sent to Mr. Carney in advance of the White House meeting.
“No more losing,” he wrote in the letter, which contained inaccuracies about U.S. tariffs. “It is time for you to deliver the promised wins.”
Mr. Poilievre has not offered any specifics on how his approach to Mr. Trump would differ.
Other Talks Loom
Next year the North American trade agreement signed by Canada, Mexico and the United States is due for a review, and its future is unclear.
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, told the Economic Club of New York last month that “a lot of our actual negotiations going forward might be almost bilateral” because of the differences between Canadian and Mexican trade.
But Mr. Carney, after meeting in September with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, emphatically rejected suggestions that Canada would try to drop Mexico and return to its original free trade deal with the United States.
Minimal Expectations
Mr. Carney’s office has described the White House visit as a working meeting. It is unclear who else he will meet in Washington. The prime minister is scheduled to remain in the city through most of Wednesday morning.
But there is a consensus among business groups that no deal is likely to be announced.
“I’m not seeing a lot of movement in Washington on the issues that matter to Canadians’ interests during meetings and conversations I’ve had there,” Flavio Volpe, the president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association of Canada, said. He added that he hoped that the decision by Canada, the United States and Mexico to start public consultations on the future of the their trade agreement would “be a good moment for a show of good faith.”
Ian Austen reports on Canada for The Times. A Windsor, Ontario, native now based in Ottawa, he has reported on the country for two decades. He can be reached at [email protected].
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