Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: The Myanmar junta makes a military and diplomatic comeback, earthquakes and typhoons hit the Philippines, Gaza fleet detainees return home to Malaysia, and piracy is on the rise in the world’s busiest shipping lane.
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The United States, India, and China Woo Myanmar’s Military
Recapturing areas that it lost a year ago, Myanmar’s junta appears to be staging a grinding partial comeback. On Oct. 1, after more than a month of fighting, junta forces captured the strategically located town of Kyaukme from the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which had taken it from the junta in June 2024.
The town sits just a few hours from the former capital, Mandalay, on a major transport artery leading to the mainly opposition-occupied northern Shan state and China.
Improved relations with China have helped Myanmar’s military regroup.
In 2023 and 2024, the junta suffered disastrous losses to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, an alliance of ethnic armed-organizations (EAOs) of which the TNLA is a part. China had previously backed the alliance but put serious pressure on both sides when it brokered a cease-fire in January.
Since then, China seems to have concluded that it needs to strengthen ties with Myanmar’s military government—presumably keen to avoid a Syria-style national collapse.
As well as pushing the junta to hold elections, China pledged in late 2024 to provide $3 billion in aid to Myanmar, according to Myanmar state media. Chinese-produced weapons—particularly drones—are helping junta forces regain ground. And in April this year, China pushed the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army—another member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance—to return one of Shan state’s largest cities, Lashio, to the military.
China’s backing has also helped the junta exit diplomatic isolation. The junta’s leader, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, recently traveled to the Chinese city of Tianjin for a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. There, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and also Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has also been to Thailand, Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan this year.
While Russia is a long-standing partner—acknowledging the junta’s legitimacy after it launched its 2021 coup and supplying it with arms, in particular jets—Min Aung Hlaing’s meeting with Modi was a big moment. India has long taken a pragmatic approach to Myanmar, focused on security along the long turbulent border that they share, where India battles its own separatist groups. To this end, India has relationships with some EAOs but has also allowed arms sales to the junta.
So Modi’s subsequent statement that Myanmar is a “vital pillar” of India’s regional policy and its promise of cooperation on energy, security, and rare earths represents a significant public warming of ties. Myanmar state media has also claimed that India has agreed send observers for Myanmar’s election in December, which has been widely labeled by international observers as a sham.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nation’s (ASEAN) approach of using diplomatic isolation of the junta to push for peace negotiations looks to be in tatters. But not all members will be displeased. Thailand has allowed itself to become a hub for Myanmar refugees and opposition groups as well as providing the junta with vital hard currency via state-owned Thai companies operating Myanmar gas fields. Like with India, Thailand’s long border with Myanmar means that it has cultivated relationships with armed groups and the junta alike in the name of stability.
The United States, having long been little more than an onlooker to the conflict in Myanmar, is taking a new interest too. Desire for access to Myanmar’s rare earths has seen some in the Trump administration reportedly push for engagement.
According to Reuters, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance discussed the possibility of working with the Kachin Independence Army, an EAO, to ship out rare earths via India. Some are apparently thinking of going further and trying to broker a peace deal between the KIA and the junta as part of a rapprochement with the latter.
What We’re Watching
Earthquake hits storm-battered Philippines. A powerful earthquake measuring 6.9 on the Richter scale struck the province of Cebu in the Philippines on Sept. 30. The quake left at least 70 dead, 559 injured, and more than 450,000 displaced, making it the country’s deadliest since 2013. More than 5,000 aftershocks have since jolted the area, measuring up to 5.1 on the Richter scale. The Philippine government declared a state of calamity, and President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. visited on Oct. 2, promising aid. A week on, many are still living in makeshift shelters strung along the side of roads and begging passing cars for aid, which has been slow to arrive.
The violence of the earthquake destroyed infrastructure, damaged hospitals and power lines, and even damaged some locations that were supposed to act as temporary shelters following natural disasters and where emergency supplies were stored. Aid from outside has struggled to reach affected areas, with roads destroyed by the quake and others thick with traffic.
Meanwhile, Typhoon Matmo hit the northern Philippines on Oct. 3—the latest in a slew of storms that have left at least 37 dead in recent weeks.
These weather events take place against the backdrop of a growing political crisis in the Philippines. Anger over corruption in government contracts meant to build flood defenses has seen protesters take to the streets and prominent politicians toppled from office.
Gaza fleet Malaysians to return home. Twenty-three Malaysians have returned home after being detained by Israel a part of the flotilla seeking to bring aid to Gaza. The Malaysian nationals detained include four celebrities and became a cause célèbre for the country. Malaysia—which, along with Indonesia and Brunei, is among the members of ASEAN that refuse to recognize Israel—moved swiftly to secure their release, thanking Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, the United States, and other ASEAN nations for their assistance in securing their release. The flotilla has enormous popular support in the country, including from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
As I’ve written in Foreign Policy, Muslim-majority Malaysia has been the most vocal of all ASEAN countries in its criticism of Israel and support for the Palestinian cause. Indonesia’s government, also Muslim-majority, has taken a somewhat quieter approach, though public sentiment remains extremely pro-Palestinian. However, substantial numbers of non-Muslims in other ASEAN citizens are also critical of Israel.
Hong Kong dissident denied entry to Singapore. Nathan Law, a key student leader in the Hong Kong protest movement that challenged the Chinese Communist Party, says that he was denied entry to Singapore. According to Law, he was travelling on a U.K.-issued refugee travel document with a visa for a few days stay that had been approved three weeks prior. However, upon landing Sept. 27, he says he was denied entry and put on the first plane back to San Francisco, where he had initially departed from.
Law said in a statement, “I think the decision to deny my entry was political, although I am unsure whether external forces, such as the PRC [People’s Republic of China], are involved, directly or indirectly.”
In a statement, the Singaporean government said, “Law’s entry into and presence in the country would not be in Singapore’s national interests,” and all visa holders are subject to checks on arrival.
Laos leader to visit North Korea. Vietnam’s leader will apparently visit North Korea in October, as I flagged last week. He will be joined by Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith for celebrations commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea. Sisoulith’s trip has officially been confirmed, unlike Vietnam’s. As noted last week, the communist state of Laos—along with Vietnam—is a key part of North Korea’s outreach to Southeast Asia. Laos’s willingness to ignore international sanctions against North Korea make it a key hub for the latter to generate cash via money laundering and cybercrime.
Photo of the Week
Prabowo loves a parade. But this one, celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Indonesian Armed Forces, had to end abruptly due to poor crowd control. Spectators crowded into the parade ground, blocking vehicle lanes and mixing with the troops.
FP’s Most Read This Week
- The Chinese Public Is Obsessing Over a Perceived Celebrity Cover-Up by Kevin F. Hsu
- Trump’s Speech to Generals Was Incitement to Violence Against Americans by Kori Schake
- How Military Leaders Should Respond to Trump’s Norm-Busting by Peter D. Feaver and Heidi A. Urben
What We’re Reading
Motorbike drivers, rise up—you have nothing to lose but your chains! A fascinating piece on the rise of delivery and ride-hail drivers and other gig workers as a class in Southeast Asia—plus how it is reshaping politics, the labor market, and how governments are responding—comes from a team of journalists at Channel News Asia.
Spend, spend, spend and pray. James Guild takes a skeptical look at Thailand’s recently passed budget and stalling economy in the Diplomat.
“[S]tart planning for actions in case there is an invasion of Taiwan,” the Philippines military chief recently told soldiers. In the Interpreter, Frances Mangosing visits Mavulis Island, Taiwan’s northernmost point and potential strategic pivot should China attack Taiwan.
Number of the Week
20.7 percent. That’s the percentage of Singaporeans aged 65 or older, and is projected to rise to 23.9 percent by 2030.
The topic is sensitive in Singapore. Singapore has long relied on immigration to top up the population and power its economy. But the government is very aware that tensions have grown over its scale, with local discontent rising over competition for jobs and housing.
Singapore is not alone in the region facing this challenge, though. Vietnam and Thailand are also aging fast.
In Focus
Dire straits. “They are very daring pirates. If a foreign ship happens to pass that way they attack it in hundreds of little boats.” So wrote Fei Xin, describing inhabitants of what is now Keppel Harbor in Singapore in his 1436 travelogue Xingcha Shenglan, which recalls his voyages under the famous Ming Chinese Adm. Zheng He.
We may be nearly six centuries down the line, but pirates are still sailing the Strait of Malacca. Incidents have nearly tripled compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in Asia.
Connecting the Indian Ocean and South China Sea—and bordered by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore—the Strait of Malacca is a maritime superhighway connecting manufacturing powerhouses of East Asia to consumer markets in the West and energy providers in the Middle East.
A 2023 estimate found that a third of all worldwide trade—some $3.5 trillion annually—flowed through the strait. In 2024, traffic hit a new record, with more than 94,000 ships passing through.
The spike in piracy is linked to congestion. When crowded, ships pass through slowly or linger, waiting for space in backed up crowded local ports. This makes them easy targets.
Congestion has worsened since 2023 due to the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea. Nearly all shipping through that route has ceased, and regional hubs where cargo could be unloaded and reloaded onto other ships are empty.
This business has shifted to other hubs, including Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas in the Strait of Malacca, but those ports are struggling to keep up.
The silver lining is that the pirate attacks are small in scale. Most of the hundred or so recorded incidents from this year involve small groups of men armed with knives stealing engine parts and ship or crew property with few injuries recorded. Only seven of the organization’s “Category 2” incidents—which can involve guns, threats, and restraint of crew—have taken place, and there were no Category 1 incidents, where cargo was stolen or the ship hijacked.
Shipping companies and insurers are still worried. But for now, the bad old days of 2005-2006, when the Joint War Committee of Lloyd’s, one of the world’s biggest shipping insurers, classified the strait as “high-risk area” and hiked insurance premiums, seem far away. Thankfully, so are the days of Fei Xin, when pirates would “plunder the ship and put both passengers and crew to death.”
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