In the Long Island suburbs of New York, a political mailer from the Nassau County district attorney began making the rounds last month with an unusual line of attack.
Anne Donnelly, the incumbent Republican prosecutor, suggested that her Democratic opponent, Nicole Aloise, was “political twins” with a supposed boogeyman from New York City: Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old Queens assemblyman, democratic socialist and front-runner in the mayor’s race.
Ms. Aloise was having none of it. She quickly responded with a video saying that she did not associate herself with Mr. Mamdani or believe he should be New York’s next mayor, citing his stance on cashless bail and past comments about law enforcement.
She then doubled down against her Democratic colleague from the city, stressing that she did not support Mr. Mamdani or his policies, and accusing her opponent of “trying to tie me to him because she can’t run on her own record or match my experience as a tough-on-crime prosecutor.”
Mr. Mamdani’s rise in New York has drawn national attention, as well as the envy and curiosity of Democratic leaders still in search of a resonant message to recapture voters and control of Washington. But their hesitance to fully embrace him — and the Republicans’ eagerness to use him as a poster boy for the Democratic Party’s far-left excesses — is playing out just a few miles away from the New York City border.
“My mailbox is practically tilting over with the volume of anti-Mamdani mail,” said Steve Israel, a former congressman from Long Island who chaired the Democrats’ congressional campaign arm for four years. “And I don’t get to vote against Mamdani. The Republicans believe they’ve latched on to something.”
The strategy is not new. New York City suburbs played a decisive role in the outcome of the midterm elections in 2022, as Republican candidates’ messaging about crime and immigration helped them flip several safely blue congressional seats.
The region is again poised to hold outsize importance in 2026. Democrats are staring down a difficult political map, amid ongoing struggles to articulate an effective message that will galvanize the base while attracting voters who abandoned the party in 2024.
In New York City, Mr. Mamdani has used a grass-roots campaign strategy and an unrelenting focus on affordability to expand the city’s electorate and energize a new generation of voters. But his association with the Democratic Socialists of America and some of his policy proposals have led some Democrats to argue that his political brand is too far to the left to have political salience anywhere outside deep-blue New York City.
The divide, unfolding against the backdrop of the nation’s largest media market, further underlines the fault lines that have emerged among Democrats nationally as they seek to chart a path out of the political wilderness.
Representatives Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen, two Democrats whose Long Island districts are among their party’s most vulnerable, have chosen to distance themselves from Mr. Mamdani. Jay Jacobs, the state Democratic Party chairman who also chairs the Nassau County chapter, said in a statement that he would not support Mr. Mamdani, citing disagreements with the state assemblyman over his views on Israel and his embrace of the Democratic Socialists of America’s platform.
Further south, in New Jersey, the state’s Republican candidate for governor, Jack Ciattarelli, has also tried to tie his Democratic opponent, Mikie Sherrill, to Mr. Mamdani, using the mention of the democratic socialist as an applause line at events. Ms. Sherrill has largely demurred when asked about her support for Mr. Mamdani, saying only that she is focused on her own race.
Most surveys of the mayoral race show Mr. Mamdani with a comfortable lead, well ahead of former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, who is running as an independent, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee. Several prominent New York Democrats have thrown their support behind Mr. Mamdani, including Gov. Kathy Hochul and Carl Heastie, the speaker of the State Assembly. Representative Pat Ryan, who represents a swing district in the Hudson Valley, joined several national Democrats in endorsing Mr. Mamdani last month.
But the most powerful New York Democrats in Congress, including Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, and Senator Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, have not publicly supported him. In an interview with “The View” on Wednesday, Mr. Mamdani shrugged off the lack of support from his party’s leaders, arguing that his campaign’s overwhelming support from new and younger voters outweighed the need for endorsements from establishment figures.
Dora Pekec, a spokeswoman for Mr. Mamdani, said in a statement that he “inspired unprecedented numbers of new voters to get involved in the democratic process, and has more active volunteers than any campaign in the country.”
“His popularity is a reflection of a deep hunger for a new kind of politics that stands up to billionaires and corporations and fights relentlessly for working people,” she said.
Republicans nonetheless see Mr. Mamdani’s rise as a political opportunity. Representative Mike Lawler, who represents a Hudson Valley swing district that President Trump narrowly lost in 2024, pointed to some Democrats’ unwillingness to support him as a foreshadowing of the challenges the party will face should he lead New York City.
“His positions on issues are not going to be well received, whether it’s defunding the police or seizing control of private property and banning private property ownership,” he said, later adding, “I think from a governmental standpoint, it’s destructive. I think, from a political standpoint it is certainly going to put Democrats on the defensive, especially heading into the midterm elections.”
In interviews, Hudson Valley voters had mixed responses to Mr. Mamdani. Though they themselves cannot vote for or against him, many said they were paying attention to his campaign and questioning how his political brand might impact Democrats nationally.
John Guido, 62, a Scarsdale resident and registered Republican who has supported both Democrats and Republicans in national elections, said he understood why young voters had flocked to Mr. Mamdani. But he believed that Mr. Mamdani has promised more than he can really accomplish. He added that he had concerns that his policy platform could invite President Trump to “torture” New York City.
“You’ve got to be realistic about this stuff,” said Mr. Guido, who said he had voted for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the last two presidential elections. “I don’t think Mamdani’s going to wave a magic wand and solve the problems in the city.”
Ms. Gillen’s assessment was far harsher.
“There is a real concern that Zohran Mamdani’s policies will negatively impact the safety and economic success of our region,” she said, pointing to the more than 300,000 Long Island residents who commute to the city each day. “The success of New York City matters to Long Island, and the last thing we need are tax-hike policies that crater our economy.”
Mr. Israel said he understood that the Republicans’ goal in next year’s midterms will be to use Mr. Mamdani as a national surrogate for all Democratic candidates in the hopes of swinging close elections in politically unpredictable districts like those in the city’s suburbs. But, he argued, Democrats who have begun pre-emptively fretting about whether that message will sink their prospects next year are getting ahead of themselves.
“I just think it’s wasted energy,” he said. “I think the Democratic Party in New York would be much better off knocking on doors and canvassing voters than agonizing about the Mamdani effect.”
Tim Balk and Tracey Tully contributed reporting.
Maya King is a Times reporter covering New York politics.
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