The Shutdown Leaves Wall Street Flying Blind

Andrew here. No news is supposed to be good news. But that’s not the case when it comes to the jobs data we likely won’t be getting on Friday because of the government shutdown. That could create all sorts of headaches for economists and Wall Street. We’ve got a full rundown below.

We’re also looking at the subsidies farmers may soon be getting from the Trump administration for losses they’re suffering because of the trade war. Will other industries that have been hurt by the tariffs get anything? Should they? Let us know what you think.

Second-string data

For Wall Street, the first Friday of the month usually means one thing: jobs day, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes payroll data. That is looking unlikely.

The federal shutdown and suspension of nonessential services means the numbers probably won’t be published on Friday, depriving markets of key economic information. That has rekindled a debate about the reliability of data collected by private firms, and how that information could be used for big economic and investment decisions.

The latest: S&P 500 futures are pointing to a solid open after the index hit another record on Thursday. Lifting investors’ spirits were economic reports that don’t normally get much heed, including payroll estimates from the H.R. data provider Revelio Labs and layoff estimates from the consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Those readouts took on greater importance when the Labor Department didn’t publish its latest jobless claims report, which is typically released on Thursdays.

Something similar happened on Wednesday, when the S&P 500 rose after a report by the payroll processor ADP showed that employers shed 32,000 jobs last month. Investors read that as a sign that the Fed might further cut interest rates to bolster a sluggish labor market.

But the private data looks messy. Many on Wall Street have griped about the quality of official government figures, but nonofficial data has its own issues. While ADP’s report depicted a weakening labor market, the Revelio and Challenger reports suggested the opposite. (That said, Challenger warned that widespread planned furloughs darkened the employment picture.)

“It is more difficult than usual to measure the state of the U.S. labor market, with gold-standard economic indicators produced by the federal government unavailable during the shutdown,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in an investor note on Thursday. His take: The job market “is still in a low hire, low fire, low gear mode.”

Adding to the frustration: William Beach, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wrote this week that “the jobs report is likely written in final draft and could be released” on Friday.

That prompted Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, to demand that the bureau release it on schedule, saying it was vital information for the Fed as it weighed action on rates.

For now, the markets are flying blind. Economists polled by Bloomberg anticipate on average that employers added 53,000 jobs last month, compared to 64,000 in August. A reminder: These reports have packed plenty of surprises lately.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Tesla sales bounce up as federal E.V. subsidies end. The automaker’s global sales rose 7.4 percent after two quarters of steep declines, as U.S. customers rushed to use a $7,500 tax credit before it expired this week. In other Tesla news, a California couple sued the company over the death of their daughter in a Cybertruck crash, arguing that faulty door design made it nearly impossible for her to escape the burning vehicle.

Gov. Gavin Newsom of California pushes back against a Trump university demand. Newsom said he would pull “billions” from any school in the state that agreed to an administration demand that they ban the use of race or sex in hiring, impose a cap on international students and comply with other demands in exchange for preferential access to federal funds. The White House has threatened to cut more than $500 million in funds for U.C.L.A. over allegations of antisemitism and bias; a federal judge later ordered that money restored.

Paramount nears deal to make Bari Weiss editor in chief of CBS News. The media company is expected to give the journalism entrepreneur significant oversight over its news division as part of a $150 million takeover of her start-up, The Free Press, The Times reports. The appointment is likely to create more tension within CBS News after Paramount agreed to settle a lawsuit by President Trump and after the executive producer of “60 Minutes” stepped down, citing encroachment on the program’s journalistic independence.

Apple removes apps that track ICE activity from its app store. The tech giant said that it would ban software, such as ICEBlock, that allows users to anonymously report sightings of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, following pressure from Attorney General Pam Bondi. “ICEBlock is designed to put ICE agents at risk just for doing their jobs,” Bondi said. The software has been downloaded more than a million times since it was added to the App Store in April.

Counting the shutdown toll

With the government shutdown entering its third day, the political and economic costs are adding up. And with Republicans and Democrats at loggerheads, political observers expect the standoff to continue for a lot longer.

Here’s the latest:

• The White House projected that the U.S. would lose $15 billion in G.D.P. per week and that a monthlong stoppage could result in 43,000 more unemployed people, according to Politico. Officials also warned that Americans could face air travel disruptions — in previous shutdowns, absenteeism tripled for air traffic controllers, who work without pay during them.

• Senior officials have warned the White House that firings during the shutdown could face legal challenges, given a law that forbids the government to incur expenses — such as layoff severance pay — during a government closure, The Washington Post reports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to play down threats of mass layoffs, calling them a “talking point.”

• Administration officials are discussing extending Obamacare health insurance subsidies that expire at the end of the year, The Wall Street Journal reports, given potential voter anger over any lapse in funding.

Prediction markets suggest the shutdown could last for a while. More than two-thirds of bettors on Kalshi expect the government to remain closed for more than 10 days, with 46 percent wagering it will stay shut for more than 15 days.

A price tag for farm aid

This week, we reported about the pressure on President Trump to help a major U.S. industry hit by the trade war: farming, especially for soybeans.

Now we have a better sense of what that might cost.

The administration is weighing an aid package of $10 billion to $14 billion, The Wall Street Journal reports. Much of that would most likely go to soybean farmers, who are harvesting another huge crop but are selling less to their longtime major customer, China.

The Journal notes that U.S. soybean exports to China from January through August totaled about 200 million bushels, down from nearly one billion the same time a year ago. That, coupled with the high yield, is pushing prices down significantly.

Actually getting the money could be tricky, however. Republicans’ big domestic policy bill took money away from the Commodity Credit Corporation, which the president used for farm aid in his first term.

This time around, Trump is seeking to draw from the government’s tariff revenues: It collected about $149 billion in customs duties from January to August. But there are issues with using that money, as DealBook has previously noted, including the potential need for Congress to authorize spending those funds.

That said, FarmProgress has noted that Trump may seek other ways to gain access to tariff revenue for farmers, including by declaring an emergency.

The wild card: Can Trump persuade Xi Jinping, China’s president, to increase Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans? The leaders are expected to meet in South Korea in several weeks.

Talking A.I. With the Chief Executive of SS&C

Every week, we’re asking a chief executive how he or she uses generative artificial intelligence. SS&C, a major investment fund administrator and transfer agency, acquired the automation software company Blue Prism for around $1.6 billion in 2022. William Stone, its C.E.O., explained how SS&C had deployed increasingly sophisticated digital workers in its business. The interview has been edited and condensed.

How do you personally use A.I.?

I’m interested in horse racing, and I own horses. I use A.I. to track how they’re doing. There are all kinds of statistics, like how far can they travel before their performance starts to deteriorate: If they’re in Kentucky, can they go to California? Can they go to New York?

What directives have you given your employees on A.I.?

We bought Blue Prism, and we call ourselves, “customer zero.” What we’ve learned in deploying digital workers, which we’re now infusing with agentic A.I., is you have to have a very senior management directive.

In the first phases, we’ve probably saved the cost of 2,500 full-time employees. Our revenue has grown about $800 million, and our head count is the same. We’re not really laying people off, but they’re getting different jobs: The ones where you’re thinking all the time, you’re not doing all the stuff.

With private credit, private loans, there are a lot of agent notices. Before, we’d have somebody look at the notice, put in the data and go through several processes to be able to post it. Now agents do all that, and we’re monitoring it.

So now you have time enough to look at that data and try to make heads or tails out of it. You move up in what you do.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

• BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners is reportedly in talks to buy Aligned Data Centers, valuing the A.I. specialist at roughly $40 billion. MGX, an Emirati investment firm, is also said to be weighing an investment. (Bloomberg)

• The U.S. government stake in Intel has jumped to $16 billion after a rally. (CNBC)

• “A.I. Is Dominating 2025 V.C. Investing, Pulling in $192.7 Billion” (Bloomberg)

Politics, policy and regulation

• The Fed and the Trump administration’s financial regulators are reportedly considering less onerous capital requirements for U.S. banks. (Reuters)

• Green cards, alternative visas, offshoring: Companies are eyeing multiple ways to dodge the new $100,000 H-1B fee. (WaPo)

Best of the rest

• “Elon Musk is telling his followers to cancel Netflix subscriptions. Here’s what’s happening” (CNBC)

• The buzz around Disney is that Josh D’Amaro, who heads the company’s theme park division, has emerged as the front-runner to succeed Bob Iger as C.E.O. (Bloomberg)

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected].

Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.

Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.

Sarah Kessler is the weekend edition editor of the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business.

Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.

Niko Gallogly is a Times reporter, covering business for the DealBook newsletter.

The post The Shutdown Leaves Wall Street Flying Blind appeared first on New York Times.