We’ve reached day two of the first government shutdown since 2019. It’s the fourth shutdown since the 2013 showdown between Barack Obama and the “Wacko Birds” in Congress.
I remember asking a senior Senate staffer who championed the 2013 tactics what the plan was now that the shutdown had begun. His answer was blunt: “There is none!” It was the first shutdown in decades, and Republicans had no idea what to do next. “We’re basically the dog that caught the car,” he admitted.
Surrender, it seems, remains the Democrats’ only option. The dirty little secret in DC is that shutdowns don’t offer real off-ramps once they begin.
Now Democrats find themselves in the same position. And the early signs suggest they won’t have the stomach to take the pressure for long.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) didn’t have much choice. Their sizeable left flank still calls the shots in the party, despite losing the White House 11 months ago. But the polls are in, and Americans aren’t buying the Democrats’ party line that Republicans are to blame.
Democrats may have grown somewhat accustomed to losing of late, but they’re not used to losing shutdown PR fights. The way they’ve told it the previous four times, the Republicans are the “terrorists” and “arsonists,” while the Democrats are the responsible adults safely guiding the ship of state.
When nearly every Republican in Congress votes to keep the ship steady, Democrats find it harder to play the blame game. Even their allies in the D.C. press aren’t impressed. Punchbowl’s Tuesday newsletter immediately set out to “reiterate that such shutdowns are harmful, counter-productive, and a major detriment to the country.”
The authors went farther: “The party looking to force a policy change via a shutdown rarely gets what it wants.”
Some Democrats already know it. Before the House adjourned last month, only one Democrat voted to fund the government. But on Tuesday, Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) of Nevada and Angus King (I) of Maine broke ranks and joined John Fetterman (D) of Pennsylvania in voting to keep the doors open.
These senators face more moderate constituencies than shutdown champion Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts. And they aren’t alone. Others in the caucus are nervously watching the clock, waiting for cracks to widen enough so they can slip through and surrender without paying too steep a price with the party faithful.
Surrender, it seems, remains the Democrats’ only option. The dirty little secret in D.C. is that shutdowns don’t offer real off-ramps once they begin. They work only as leverage. Once the bluff is called, the fight becomes a war of attrition. In 2025, the corporate left-wing press no longer has the clout to ride in and save Democrats from themselves.
President Trump, for his part, holds the detonator. He could allow tens (hundreds?) of thousands of federal employees to be furloughed or laid off if their programs lack funding. Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought is gung-ho to follow through. But Trump wants a deal more than bureaucratic Armageddon.
The president is willing to let Vought trim bloated and unfunded projects. Yet unless Democrats push the standoff far longer than they seem capable of, conservatives shouldn’t expect the wholesale slash-and-burn they’ve been hoping for.
That leaves Senate Democrats caught between their restless base and the reality of a losing hand. Schumer needs to decide how much damage to allow Warren and her faction to inflict before pulling the plug. His personal fortunes — and his grip on power — hang in the balance.
My bet? It won’t be long.
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