John Austin is a visiting fellow with the Academy of International Affairs — NRW, and the former president of the Michigan State Board of Education.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s reelection, much has been made of how he and other would-be authoritarians have inherited Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s playbook for undermining democracy.
Attempting to operationalize a similar script, Trump and his allies have been intimidating and coopting independent branches of government, politicizing universities, stifling dissent in the media, rewarding friends and family with government largesse, and letting a new homegrown oligarchy of tech moguls in on the kleptocracy.
Very few, however, see the inevitable outcomes of this playbook: a deteriorating economy and the crumbling of the basic services that sustain the public’s faith in government. So, when does the tide turn?
Historian Anne Applebaum is among the few who clearly draw this link, noting that MAGA and other Trumpian imitators are in love with Orbán’s illiberal “playbook” largely because it coopts the machinery of democracy rather than directly assaulting it. But what they fail to notice are the long-term consequences of corruption, poverty, diminished living standards — and, crucially, a soured public.
Today, the extent of dissatisfaction with Orbán in Hungary, which has been building beneath the authoritarian surface for years, is finally out in public view. It was evidenced during the Budapest Pride Parade, which turned into a mass anti-Orbán rally after the prime minister’s efforts to quash it, and can now be seen in the current groundswell of support for opposition candidate Péter Magyar and his Tisza party.
During Orbán’s first decade in power, Hungary’s endemic corruption and the prime minister’s maneuvers to coopt democracy were largely masked — or tolerated — as an EU-led infusion of resources and concomitant economic growth reinforced the notion that “Orbán delivers.”
Now, however, the collapse of the country’s health care system and growing dissatisfaction with the education system, along with high housing costs, rising prices and diminished living standards are all being pinned on the Orbán-led Fidesz party.
Recent polling by the independent Hungarian research firm Policy Solutions found that large majorities associate Orbán’s tenure with the growing gap between the rich and poor (63 percent), as well as the deterioration of health care (67 percent), education (63 percent) and the overall state of the economy (57 percent). A majority of voters also hold Orbán responsible for an increase in corruption (60 percent) and Hungary’s diminishing international stature (58 percent). Moreover, Magyar is polling ahead of Orbán in advance of next year’s national election, and his Tisza party is viewed as more competent in handling basic government functions.
After 15 years, it seems Hungarian voters are finally fed up.
In this context, Hungary’s opposition is wisely following the tactic set forth by Poland’s EU-friendly Prime Minister Donald Tusk, when he was wrestling power back from the anti-democratic Law and Justice party: Promising to unlock EU money, which was frozen because of the government’s assault on democracy, to help fund sorely needed services, and to bring fresh EU scrutiny on the government’s circle of graft and corruption.
Orbán, for his part, is desperately trying to change the subject and make the upcoming election a referendum on pulling back support for Ukraine and its EU bid — a campaign that includes substantial disinformation (like claiming Ukrainians are responsible for crimes in Hungary.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the U.S. is only nine months into Trump 2.0, but if his administration’s policy choices to date are any indication — with the economy doing worse, basic government services gutted, corruption and kleptocracy running amok, and America’s global prestige dramatically diminished — Trump’s playbook could unravel just like Orbán’s.
The U.S. certainly can’t launch on-and-off tariff wars with friend and foe alike without slowing economic growth and raising prices. Moreover, the administration can’t make deep cuts to government programs for health care, food stamps, veterans and education — all while giving tax cuts to the wealthy — without seeing longer-term effects similar to Orbán’s Hungary.
Over time, these policies will push more people into poverty and make the already yawning gap between America’s rich and poor even larger — not to mention the impact on thousands more around the world.
And, of course, similar to his Hungarian counterpart, Trump is trying to distract and change the subject when criticism gets too hot, or his promises of making America great again go horribly awry — like when his “Liberation Day” tariffs spooked and tanked the market. Along these lines, the fresh assault on Portland’s alleged “radicals” and potentially Venezuela have been summoned to refocus public attention.
But is there a point of no return?
Restoring real democracy in Hungary isn’t a sure thing, as Orbán could again change electoral rules, have his opponents declared ineligible, or turn a blind eye to aggressive election interference from Russia and China, which can’t afford to lose their chief EU troublemaker.
But with public opinion hardening against the regime and a push to make the upcoming election one of true change, Orbán’s blatantly illegal maneuvers — much like his attempt to pull the plug on Budapest Pride — may well backfire.
As one leading Hungarian opposition voice put it: “We are not Belarus. Orbán’s rule still depends on public support, and Hungary is a member of the European Union, [so it] has to at least appear to play by its rules and norms if we want to stay.”
Trump, too, could yet avoid the public turning on him through continual distractions — with foreign policy “victories” like the new Gaza peace plan, for example — all dressed up to mask other failures.
But as another Hungarian confidant told me: “I have much more faith in American democracy. You still have a largely independent judiciary; an aggressive and active free media; independent political power centers in state houses and mayor’s offices across the country. Elections that (still) aren’t rigged…”
So, let’s hope that both “democracies” still function well enough to allow the legitimate voice of the majority to have its say — a majority that expects its government and leaders to serve them and make their lives better, not worse.
As goes Hungary, so goes America? Fingers crossed.
The post The Orbán-MAGA playbook will fail to deliver appeared first on Politico.
