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Europe’s leaders gather in a fortress-like Copenhagen on Wednesday with the sense it’s now or never. They will thrash out how to ramp up the bloc’s defenses — and where to find the cash.
Rarely have the stakes been higher, with the U.S. tepid on its military support for the continent and Moscow picking up the pace of its provocations on Europe’s borders.
As leaders speak, a German frigate is stationed in the Danish capital’s port — a show of European security muscle and a sign of the warlike mood in Copenhagen. Europe is in a “hybrid war,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.
Talks are set to begin around 1 p.m. and last until 5.30 p.m., with defense and Ukraine top of the agenda. That leaves around four hours for leaders to reach some kind of consensus that can be rubber-stamped at a further EU summit in three weeks’ time.
Here are five thorny issues on the table:
1. Defense
The bloc will need to decide whether the Commission will lead on flagship defense projects — such as the “drone wall” on the eastern flank announced by the EU’s executive last month — or individual member countries. Larger countries, such as Germany, France and Italy, favor more national autonomy.
Also up for discussion is how to finance such projects, with some member countries favoring joint debt and others, including Germany, preferring to bankroll defense spending through SAFE, the EU’s €150 billion financial instrument for arms procurement. The bloc wants these questions answered so it can finalize a roadmap for arming itself by 2030.
2. Russia’s frozen billions
The European Commission thinks it’s found a clever loophole to free up sanctioned Russian assets for a €140 billion “reparations loan” for Ukraine — if it can get countries on board.
Under the Commission’s plan, Russian cash frozen since the beginning of the war would be paid out to Kyiv as a loan with zero interest, with Ukraine paying it back only once Moscow ends its war and forks out for reparations.
Such a dramatic move would normally require unanimous approval from all EU countries — but Kremlin-friendly Hungary and Slovakia are unlikely to approve. Nor is Belgium, as the frozen assets are held in a Brussels-based bank account.
The Commission still thinks it might be able to pull off its plan with the support of a qualified majority — and is arguing the scheme will boost Europe’s own arms industry.
“I suspect that Moscow will be watching this informal European Council meeting very closely,” a second German senior government official told POLITICO.
3. Unblocking Ukraine’s EU membership
For Ukraine to progress in its path to EU membership, all 27 of the bloc’s member countries need to give the green light. That’s a problem, given Hungary has repeatedly vowed to block Kyiv’s accession.
European Council President António Costa is set to raise the possibility of tweaking the bloc’s negotiating framework for candidate countries to allow the opening of accession chapters by a qualified voting majority of EU member countries, rather than unanimity, deftly sidestepping Hungary’s veto.
The proposal, first reported by POLITICO, has been raised by Kyiv’s allies before and earned the Commission’s tick of approval Monday. But will likely require Budapest’s sign-off, which it is unlikely to give.
The plan also faces pushback from several other countries, including France, the Netherlands and Greece, and is unlikely to get wide approval in Denmark, according to three EU diplomats and a French presidency official who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.
4. New Russia sanctions
The EU’s 19th package of sanctions, announced last month, has yet to be approved by all member countries. It targets an expanded list of Russian and foreign banks and energy companies, according to a draft annex — including firms from China, the United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Hungary has a long track record of obstructing sanctions (before eventually giving in), and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been bullish about weaning off Russian energy.
5. Berlin brings the heat
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is coming to Copenhagen with a laundry list of grievances, telling party figures last week he plans to bring a “precise list of demands” to limit “constant regulation” from the EU and “put a stick in the wheels of this machine in Brussels.”
It’s expected that chief among his asks will be overturning or weakening the bloc’s combustion engine ban. But that debate is set to split the bloc, with Sweden firmly against abandoning the 2035 deadline to move away from petrol and diesel cars.
What won’t be discussed: Germany’s position on sanctioning Israel. Merz, who has fluctuated between full-throated support for Israel and condemnation of civilian deaths in Gaza, was expected to finally clarify Berlin’s position in Copenhagen, but has since put off a decision, according to an official.
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