PARIS — The most polarizing figure in French politics isn’t a politician.
He’s a baby-faced economist named Gabriel Zucman, and he’s got an idea that taps into deep frustration among an angry public tired of watching costs rise as governments collapse while trying to balance the books.
The 38-year-old wants all households worth more than €100 million to pay an annual tax of at least 2 percent of the value of all their assets. Zucman says the measure could bring in as much as €20 billion a year.
The proposal, dubbed the “Zucman tax,” has become the hot topic of the moment in a country with a complicated relationship with billionaires now on the brink of a major debt crisis.
Zucman argues that with the effective tax rate for French billionaires lower than those for most other taxpayers, action must be taken to ensure the wealthiest are paying their fair share.
Not a day goes by without the Zucman tax’s merits or drawbacks being passionately discussed on the airwaves, especially given that the Socialists, who were instrumental in toppling France’s last two governments, have embraced the proposal as they engage in high-stakes budget negotiations with new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
Lecornu and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist, pro-business party opposes the tax but need the center-left party’s support to push through a spending plan that can convince markets and regulators that the eurozone’s second-biggest economy has not become ungovernable.
Whether the Zucman tax is on the table is unclear, as Lecornu’s team is keeping its plans under wraps.
But Zucman has already succeeded in reframing the terms of the debate.
“The merit of the Zucman tax is not the tax itself, it is the diagnosis and moving away from the idea that nothing can be done,” said Pascal Saint-Amans, a French official who for a decade led the push for global corporate taxation reform at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Zucmania
More than a decade after Thomas Piketty’s wildly successful “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,” Zucman is taking the crown of France’s next rock-star economist.
His work on wealth taxes helped inspire left-wing presidential candidates in the United States, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and netted him the prestigious John Bates Clark Medal in 2023. Last year, he advised Brazil as it sought to push forward a global minimum tax on billionaires when the country presided over the G20.
Zucman, who teaches alongside Piketty at the Paris School of Economics as well as the University of California, Berkeley, has proven to be a master communicator willing to spar on social media or in in-person debates, which are many.
LVMH chief Bernard Arnault said the tax would “destroy the French economy.” Other influential economists argue the measure would only bring in €5 billion, not the €20 billion Zucman says. Legal experts worry it’s unconstitutional.
Then there’s the capital flight argument: that billionaires would simply leave France to avoid paying the tax, as Pierre-Édouard Stérin did, depriving French coffers of significant revenue. A body of independent economists advising the French government, however, found that such an exodus would not have a significant economic impact, punching a small hole in that argument.
But perhaps the biggest concern in the Elysée is what it could do to the “startup nation” Macron promised upon his election in 2017.
Business founders would be forced to pay a tax based on the market value of shares they own in their companies, which fluctuate, in addition to their income.
Arthur Mensch, who founded the French unicorn Mistral AI, said he agrees with Zucman that there needs to be more “fiscal justice” in France but explained that he wouldn’t be able to pay the Zucman tax.
Zucman responded by proposing that billionaires unable to pay in cash should instead transfer shares to the state — a solution that critics slammed as communist.
Despite the laundry list of naysayers, Zucman’s plan appears to have a staggering level of public support. A recent survey by pollster Ifop commissioned by the Socialists found 86 percent of respondents viewed the Zucman tax favorably.
“In France, a country passionate about equality, you get to the point that the man in the street knows the Zucman tax,” said Saint-Amans, the former OECD tax expert.
The post France can’t stop talking about Gabriel Zucman — and his wealth tax appeared first on Politico.
