The 2028 presidential primaries are 16 months away, but Democrats are making moves to enter the race at a moment voters are desperate to find a winner.
Former vice president Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York), former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Ro Khanna (California) are among the many Democrats eyed as potential presidential candidates.
Of course, none of them are openly committing to run yet. Presidential hopefuls often wait to publicly announce their plans to run for a host of personal and legal reasons. Sometimes they genuinely don’t make up their mind until after months of mulling the decision.
But several indicators can give hints as to who is merely considering a bid, who is dipping their toes in setting up a run and who is running in all but name. These are the key questions we’re asking as we watch this shadow presidential primary unfold, and the prospective candidates who stand out:
Who isn’t bothering to be coy?
A few candidates are more explicit than others in their intentions.
Harris, Buttigieg, Khanna, Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Sens. Ruben Gallego (Arizona), Chris Van Hollen (Maryland), Mark Kelly (Arizona) and Cory Booker (New Jersey) have all said they are considering a run — some more decisively than others. Buttigieg said he is “more inclined than not” to run while Van Hollen said he was “kicking the tires.”
Newsom has said numerous times he is seriously looking at a run but is waiting until after the midterms to make a decision. He also told CNN’s Jake Tapper that he would not run if fellow Californian Harris ran, saying it would force their shared supporters to split into different camps.
Ocasio-Cortez recently told the New York Times that she is weighing a presidential campaign. She did not rule out challenging Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer in the 2028 primary if she felt it was a more effective opportunity to advance progressive policy than running for the White House.
Who is being coy?
Candidates often deflect on their presidential plans to bringing up races on the immediate horizon.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (Georgia) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker both avoided commenting on 2028, saying for now they are focused on races this year.
Others take more circuitous paths to signaling their plans. When asked by interviewers about potential 2028 runs, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said he wants to be “part of that debate” and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore said he is “going to be part of a bigger conversation going forward.”
Sen. Chris Murphy (Connecticut) told Punchbowl in November that he is “certainly not planning on it right now.”
Sen. Jon Ossoff (Georgia), whose name often get floated for a 2028 presidential run, has repeatedly explicitly said he is not interested. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer did too in May, but then she backtracked, saying: “I never thought I would run for governor. So I guess I should know better to never say never.”
Who is laying out their vision for the country?
One of the clearest indications of presidential ambitions is if politicians start talking, well, presidentially. Book releases, major speeches and media tours can help presidential hopefuls both introduce themselves early to the wider electorate and occupy their ideological lane.
Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Murphy, Warnock and Booker have released books in the past two years, and Beshear released one this week. The books range from personal memoirs, like Newsom’s, to musings on the biggest problems facing American democracy, like Warnock’s.
High-profile speeches can also stake out the foundations of a potential candidate’s positions. Former congressman, Chicago mayor and ambassador Rahm Emanuel, a longtime Israel supporter but frequent critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, made a landmark speech in Tel Aviv in July calling to end unconditional aid to Israel, responding to a growing sentiment in his party.
Ocasio-Cortez delivered a speech on voting rights in Montgomery, Alabama, in May and went on a “Fighting Oligarchy” tour with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) (who himself would be 87 in 2028 and has dismissed the idea of a third presidential run). She also attempted to demonstrate her foreign policy chops at the Munich Security Conference in February, though her jumbled response on whether the U.S. should commit troops to defending Taiwan attracted scrutiny.
Who is visiting early states?
Historically, visits to Iowa were a surefire indicator of a candidate’s presidential ambitions. Democrats changed the order of their presidential primaries in August, making the new order of first states South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia.
Kelly, Gallego, Moore, Harris, Beshear, Newsom, Booker, Emanuel, Murphy, Khanna and Buttigieg have visited South Carolina in the past year. Shapiro spoke to the South Carolina delegation during the 2024 Democratic National Convention, telling delegates he was planning future visits to the state.
Michigan has also been a common stop for potential 2028 candidates, particularly with the state’s competitive Senate race this year. Buttigieg, a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has settled in the state since leaving the Biden administration and frequently stumps for Michigan Democrats and speaks at major events in the state. Ocasio-Cortez paid a visit to Michigan in July to rally for progressive Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of his competitive August primary.
Beshear made a stop there in April to speak at the state Democratic Party’s annual fundraiser. The governor has also visited Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina in recent months.
Who is hitting the campaign trail?
Running for president requires allies, and a great way to make allies is to support them in their own campaigns. Endorsements and campaign contributions for downballot races during this year’s midterms could translate into important surrogates for presidential candidates in 2028.
Buttigieg has been a uniquely prolific stumper this year, backing candidates across the country in races ranging from the Indiana state House to the U.S. House in New Jersey. Kelly has spoken at events for Democratic House and Senate candidates in Ohio, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia and his home state of Arizona.
Shapiro, who is up for reelection this year, has focused on four competitive House races in his home state, arguing that the path to Democrats taking back the House in 2026 runs through his state, which is also pivotal in presidential elections.
Harris, who at times clashed with the left flank of her party in her 2024 run, included an event Tuesday with El-Sayed in Detroit, among her midterm campaign stops.
Who is making key endorsements?
Endorsements can also telegraph a candidate’s hopes for the future of the party. Gallego has endorsed and donated money to more moderate candidates in competitive primaries, such as Senate candidates Haley Stevens in Michigan and Angie Craig in Minnesota, both of whom lost to more liberal candidates. He has also backed candidates in competitive races where Democrats are hoping to win back Latino voters who went for President Donald Trump in 2024, such as in Texas.
Meanwhile, Ocasio-Cortez backed more progressive candidates who have swept through primaries this year, including El-Sayed, Analilia Mejia for a New Jersey U.S. House seat and several progressive candidates for the New York state legislature. Ocasio-Cortez has been selective in her endorsements, declining to back some more controversial candidates like Graham Platner in Maine.
Who is raising money that can be used for a White House bid?
Presidential campaigns are expensive. Several potential candidates are sitting on large cash reserves from past federal campaigns that can be used on presidential runs.
Kelly, who is not up for reelection this year, and Booker, who does not face a serious challenge, both have more than $20 million sitting in their campaign accounts. Murphy, whose next election is in 2030, has more than $11 million. Khanna has nearly $17 million and Ocasio-Cortez has nearly $16 million, significant sums for a House member.
Potential candidates can also demonstrate their fundraising prowess through leadership PACs, where they often bring in millions of dollars, but those funds are largely reserved for supporting other campaigns.
Some former presidential candidates have set up new organizations to house their money. Harris repurposed her campaign into Fight for the People PAC, which she could turn back into a campaign committee. It had a modest $837,000 in the bank as of the end of June. Buttigieg’s Win the Era PAC had more than $6 million in the bank by the end of August, and he has given extensively from the organization to downballot candidates this year. Pritzker, a billionaire, has personally given at least $12 million to Democrats in the midterms and launched a PAC to spend another $20 million, including for several Black Democrats running in red districts.
Who is raising their profile?
Being well-known is one of the biggest advantages a candidate can have going into a presidential primary. Several potential candidates are already household names, such as Harris and Ocasio-Cortez. Others are working to get there.
Podcasting has emerged as a major platform to reach voters who don’t engage with more traditional sources of news. Kelly, Khanna, Pritzker, Warnock, Newsom, Murphy, Harris, Buttigieg, Gallego and Ocasio-Cortez have all gone on high-profile podcasts. While some like Beshear and Newsom have focused on politics- or policy-oriented shows such as “Pod Save America” or “The Ezra Klein Show,” others like Kelly and Khanna have dabbled in pop-culture or influencer-led shows such as “The Dan Le Batard Show” or “Drama Queens.” Ossoff recently spoke on rapper Killer Mike’s podcast, where Sanders spoke in past election cycles.
Several candidates have done more traditional cable news hits recently, but Booker, Khanna and Kelly stand out for the volume of appearances.
Praveena Somasundaram, Ben Binday, Liz Goodwin, Dan Merica, Gregory S. Schneider, Teo Armus and Patrick Marley contributed to this report.
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