In President Donald Trump’s America First approach to foreign policy, Israel can seem like an exception, a country that gets support even when its policies stray from U.S. interests—or the personal preferences of the president himself. Israeli leaders like to talk about the values that the two countries share, which is certainly part of the explanation. But there are other reasons as well.
Israel has many supporters within Trump’s inner circle, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, as well as many important pro-Israel donors. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proved adept at flattering Trump, with Israel naming settlements after the president, lauding his accomplishments, and otherwise playing on his vanity. Netanyahu also has strong support among Republicans in Congress and with pro-Trump media, such as Fox News, OAN, and Newsmax. This mix of media support, congressional backing, and flattery seemed to work for Israel at a key moment, when Trump decided to join Israel in its attempt to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in June.
Yet it is not difficult to imagine scenarios where Trump would turn his back on Israel. The president is mercurial, and he has turned on friends again and again. Canada, Denmark, Germany, and the United Kingdom are only a few of the very close U.S. allies that have felt his sting. After many years of praising Russia and President Vladimir Putin, Trump is now even criticizing them, deriding Russian military prowess and calling for Ukraine to take back all of its territory
Nor is U.S. policy in the Middle East neatly aligned with Israel. The United States forged a separate peace with the Houthis in Yemen, even though the group continued its attacks on Israel. On Syria, Trump, with the encouragement of U.S. Gulf allies, has praised Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former militant-turned-president, and lifted sanctions, while Israel has bombed Syria, supported Syrian Druze against Sharaa’s government, and occupied parts of the border that were previously demilitarized.
Gaza in particular could easily become a frustration. Trump chastised Putin for pursuing an endless, unproductive war despite U.S. efforts to mediate, which involved proposing deals that were highly favorable to Russia, including allowing Moscow to control the parts of Ukraine it captured, denying Ukraine membership in NATO, and reducing sanctions on Russia. With Trump’s support, Witkoff has tried to mediate the Israel-Hamas war, ending the conflict in return for Hamas releasing hostages. Netanyahu, however, insists on Hamas’s complete destruction, a condition that is almost impossible for the group to accept. Trump’s remarks on Thursday that he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank—as well as a proposed U.S. plan for Gaza that includes movement toward Palestinian statehood—also suggest that the president is willing to diverge from Israel’s positions. Trump has repeatedly declared that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, and Netanyahu (like Putin) stands in his way.
Trump seeks out winners, and Russia’s failures in Ukraine appear to be souring the president on Putin. In contrast, positive media coverage of Israel’s impressive military campaign against Iran contributed to the president’s decision to join in. But just as military success bred support, military failure can breed contempt, and Israel appears to be spinning its wheels in Gaza militarily while creating a massive humanitarian crisis that evokes constant criticism.
Israel has also complicated U.S. relations with its Gulf allies, with which Trump is particularly close. Trump was reportedly furious with Netanyahu over Israel’s recent attack on Qatar, which hosts U.S. troops and gifted Trump an airplane, declaring, “He’s fucking me.”
Nor has Netanyahu always been a perfect Trump loyalist. After the prime minister congratulated Joe Biden on his 2020 election win, Trump lashed out, telling journalist Barak Ravid in 2021 that he wanted “loyalty” and that Netanyahu “could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake.” Trump then added: “Fuck him.”
Although much of the Republican establishment strongly supports Israel, this support is more uneven among Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) base. In July, MAGA stalwart Marjorie Taylor Greene labeled Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide.” Podcast host Tucker Carlson even suggested this year that the United States should “[d]rop Israel” and let it fight its own wars. Trump has shown repeatedly that he has the full backing of the Republican base, and pro-Israel congressional Republicans may mute their support should the president decide to go in a different direction.
Even beyond influencers like Greene and Carlson, the MAGA movement is open in its hostility toward foreign aid, and Israel is the leading recipient. In addition, support for Israel is particularly unpopular among younger Americans: Less than 10 percent of adults under 34 have a favorable opinion of Netanyahu and of Israel’s policies in Gaza.
Turning on Israel would more likely come in the form of reduced support and sniping about specific policies rather than a wholesale shift. Even if Trump sours further on Netanyahu, he is unlikely to cut off intelligence cooperation, arms sales, and other core aspects of the relationship. Netanyahu, for his part, has declared that Israel must be ready to be isolated rather than make concessions on its security.
Yet the risks to Israel are considerable. U.S. assistance is not just financial but also symbolic, signaling to adversaries and allies alike that Israel enjoys Washington’s full backing. A cut in aid would strain Israel’s defense budget and potentially slow procurement of advanced systems, while open criticism would embolden Israel’s rivals, undermine deterrence, and complicate its diplomacy with other partners that take U.S. cues.
Ultimately, Israel’s fate under Trump would hinge less on shared strategic interests than on the president’s shifting perceptions of loyalty, success, and personal reward. Trump’s track record shows that no ally is immune from his ire when he feels slighted or when an ally’s policies obstruct his pursuit of glory. For Israel, this means that even deep-rooted military, intelligence, and political ties offer no guarantee of protection from Trump’s mercurial impulses.
A reduction in aid, public criticism, or transactional bargaining may fall short of a wholesale rupture, but each would erode Israel’s deterrence, embolden its adversaries, and signal to other partners that Washington’s commitment is negotiable. In a region where credibility is currency, the mere possibility of abandonment by Israel’s most important ally could prove as damaging as the reality.
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