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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 4 of the NFL season.
All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last week, Farmer posted a 9-7 (.563) record. Through the first three weeks of the season, he is 33-15 (.688).
Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 3 would have been 7-9 (.438). For the season, his record against the spread is 25-23 (.521).
All times are Pacific and TV reflects broadcasts in the Los Angeles area.
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Seahawks (2-1) at Cardinals (2-1)
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Tonight, 5:20 p.m. TV: Amazon Prime.
Line: Seahawks by 1½. O/U: 43½.
Arizona’s offense is too limited without James Conner, relying mostly on tight end Trey McBride in the passing game. Seattle’s offense is starting to click, and the Seahawks’ ability to throw downfield should give them the edge on the road.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 17
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Vikings (2-1) vs. Steelers (2-1)
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Sunday, 6:30 a.m. TV: NFL Network.
Line: Vikings by 2½. O/U: 40½.
Despite playing a backup quarterback, Minnesota has been able to run effectively, and Pittsburgh has a hard time stopping the run. But Aaron Rodgers makes enough plays to lift the Steelers in Dublin, Ireland.
Pick: Steelers 24, Vikings 20
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Chargers (3-0) at Giants (0-3)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: CBS.
Line: Chargers by 6½. O/U: 44½.
Despite injuries and an occasional slow start, the Chargers are playing great defense and Justin Herbert should be able to outplay the Giants’ limited offense. The Giants’ defense may keep it close for a while.
Pick: Chargers 27, Giants 17
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Commanders (2-1) at Falcons (1-2)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Commanders by 1½. O/U: 45½.
Atlanta was embarrassed in a blowout loss and should respond with a focused effort at home. With Jayden Daniels likely sitting out and Marcus Mariota unable to win throwing, the Falcons rebound with a balanced attack.
Pick: Falcons 23, Commanders 20
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Saints (0-3) at Bills (3-0)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Bills by 16½. O/U: 48½.
New Orleans is playing hard but simply doesn’t have the roster talent to compete with one of the NFL’s top teams. Buffalo should win comfortably at home with an efficient performance on offense.
Pick: Bills 34, Saints 10
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Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Lions by 8½. O/U: 44½.
Cleveland’s defense is legit, but the Browns’ offense is practically nonexistent. Detroit’s versatility on offense should eventually wear down the Browns and produce a fairly low-scoring win.
Pick: Lions 21, Browns 10
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Panthers (1-2) at Patriots (1-2)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Patriots by 5½. O/U: 43½.
Drake Maye’s playmaking ability and New England’s improving defense make the Patriots a tough out. The Panthers could have a letdown after their big division win, and the Patriots grind out a close one.
Pick: Patriots 24, Panthers 21
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Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Eagles by 3½. O/U: 44½.
The Eagles have the NFL’s best roster and should win a close, physical game despite Tampa Bay having recent success against them. Tampa Bay’s injuries are too much to overcome this time.
Pick: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 20
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Titans (0-3) at Texans (0-3)
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Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Texans by 7½. O/U: 38½.
Houston’s defense and experience give the Texans an edge against a rookie QB, though their offensive line remains a problem. They should create enough pressure and force mistakes to collect their first win.
Pick: Texans 27, Titans 20
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Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1)
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Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: Fox.
Line: Rams by 3½. O/U: 49½.
This figures to be one of the weekend’s best games, with a strong Indianapolis defense facing an efficient Rams attack. Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ weapons should make just enough plays at home.
Pick: Rams 28, Colts 23
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Jaguars (2-1) at 49ers (3-0)
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Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: 49ers by 3½. O/U: 46½.
San Francisco is too banged up, with Nick Bosa out and multiple offensive concerns, while Jacksonville is coming off a confidence-building win. The Jaguars find a way to pull off a close road upset.
Pick: Jaguars 21, 49ers 18
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Ravens (1-2) at Chiefs (1-2)
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Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: CBS.
Line: Ravens by 2½. O/U: 48½.
Kansas City’s offense looks slow and out of sync, while Baltimore has the NFL’s most complete team on paper and Lamar Jackson is always a threat. Baltimore’s defense and ground attack will control the game.
Pick: Ravens 27, Chiefs 20
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Bears (1-2) at Raiders (1-2)
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Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket.
Line: Raiders by 1½. O/U: 47½.
Caleb Williams is settling in and Chicago’s defense played well last week. With emerging weapons such as Luther Burden III, the Bears’ offense should find enough big plays to win a tight one.
Pick: Bears 24, Raiders 20
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Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)
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Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock
Line: Packers by 6½. O/U: 47½.
Micah Parsons’ return should spark Green Bay’s defense against a Cowboys team coming off an embarrassing loss. Dak Prescott will be under heavy pressure and the Packers rebound with a convincing win.
Pick: Packers 31, Cowboys 17
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Jets (0-3) at Dolphins (0-3)
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Monday, 4:15 p.m. TV: ESPN
Line: Dolphins by 2½. O/U: 44½.
Tyrod Taylor provides stability and efficiency for New York’s offense, and the Jets’ defense is playing with purpose. The Dolphins’ offense has struggled to run and stay healthy, making them vulnerable in a close game.
Pick: Jets 23, Dolphins 20
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Bengals (2-1) at Broncos (1-2)
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Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ABC
Line: Broncos by 7½. O/U: 43½.
Denver is desperate and playing at home with a strong defense that should overwhelm Cincinnati’s shaky offensive line. The Broncos’ pass rush and balanced attack pave the way for a bounce-back win.
Pick: Broncos 30, Browns 17
The post NFL Week 4 picks: Ravens triumph over Chiefs; Rams defeat Colts appeared first on Los Angeles Times.
