“The stakes could not be higher,” a senior UN official told reporters ahead of the UN Climate Summit in New York. Heavy flooding, drought and ever longer heatwaves are just some of the that have battered communities over the past summer alone.
Climate disasters are “wreaking havoc” on every continent, the UN official added.
Scientists say human-caused global warming is driving the changes in Earth’s climate and that rising temperatures will mean worse impacts in the long run.
To try to tackle the climate crisis world leaders agreed to limit the average global temperature rise to well below (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5 degrees.
The deal was sealed under the with countries promising to renew and communicate their commitments via a so-called NDC, or nationally determined contribution, every five years.
The deadline for the 2035 NDC was in February, but few of the 195 parties that have ratified the accord met the date. Pressure is now on for nations to come forward with their commitments this week.
Big climate emitters are falling behind
With less than two months to go before the start of the international COP 30 climate summit, taking place in Belem, Brazil, only 50 countrieshad delivered their climate goals by time of publication — representing just 24% of global emissions.
Big emitters including the and are among those yet to submit their national targets. Some nations that have put forward domestic targets, like and have been criticized for not showing stronger ambition and doing their fair share.
Many countries — including China — are expected to come forward with proposals. More than 100 nations have registered to speak as part of this week’s UN Climate Summit,taking place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York.
So, what are countries promising? And what does it mean for action on global warming?
European Union: Climate leader?
With a conflict on its borders, economic problems in some member states and a general political shift to the right, agreeing on a united response to the climate crisis has proven difficult for the 27-state bloc.
Just days before the climate summit, the EU indicated that it would not meet a deadline set by the COP30 Brazilian presidency to present its NDC before the end of September, instead issuing a statement of intent.
The document signaled the bloc’s commitment to put forward a climate target before the November conference with a 2035 greenhouse gas reduction ranging between 66.25% and 72.5% compared with 1990 levels.
Stientje van Veldhoven, regional director for Europe at the World Resources Institute, said that while the statement showed “scope for progress”, it risked “sending a confusing message, eroding investor confidence and undermining jobs, energy security, and competitiveness.”
A proposal to reduce EU greenhouse gas emissionsby 90% by 2040 has been in the works for some time, but has yet to be agreed upon by all member states. Experts say the 2035 target would have an impact on that goal.
“The pathway matters: if the EU lands on the lower end of the range, like 66.3%, the final stretch to 90% just five years later will be a steep and uphill climb. That does not provide the long-term policy credibility that investors and companies need,” added van Veldhoven.
China: Green energy giant
The world’s biggest emitter, , produces around a third of all greenhouse gas emissions and as such is under pressure to produce an ambitious domestic reduction target.
However, given the EU’s lack of a target and the US pulling out of the Paris Agreement, experts said that it was unlikely to come.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt that the Chinese decision-making will factor in the US situation and also to some extent the ongoing European debate on its own NDC. I think those factors in general will present challenges to high ambition,” said Li Shuo, Director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
The good news is that it looks likely that either China has reached its peak emissions or will do so soon, meaning that the only direction now is down.
Experts said they were waiting to see what the biggest emitter would promise, but that even if it was on the lower end of the scale, it was likely to be met.
“In the case of China, when they come up with a target, it’s something that they are really committed to, to really fulfill,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga, senior climate policy analyst with Climate Analytics. “In a way, it could not be that it’s not the most ambitious, but we can have a certain level of trust that they will reach what they are promising.”
China is by far the globe’s biggest investor in clean energy, with investment reaching around $625 billion in 2024 alone, according to the global energy think tank Ember,and Shuo said that was unlikely to change.
By the time of publication, the nation had not yet delivered its NDC, although experts said they expected to hear from the country on its targets during the climate summit.
Brazil: The host with the most?
As host of the COP30 climate conference, has come under increasing scrutiny over its domestic targets.
Its plans to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions between 59 – 67% from 2005 levels by 2035 were met with criticism by experts who said that such a range created uncertainty and weakened accountability.
The country has also come under fire over plans to particularly around the mouth of the Amazon River.
However, Gonzales-Zuniga said that Brazil’s recently published national strategy to reduce emissions adds clarity by specifying cuts in more specific sectors, for example, agriculture and deforestation, which account for three-quarters of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.
United Kingdom: The original gangster
Great Britain was the first country to initiate the Industrial Revolution, a period in history dating back to the mid-1700s, when fossil fuels were first burned to power industrial processes.
As one of the countries with the highest cumulative emissions — having emitted the most overall after the US, EU countries and China — some experts argue it has a particular responsibility to lower its emissions quickly.
And it seems that the former EU country has stepped up. As well as submitting its NDC on time, the government has promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 81% compared with 1990 levels.
“They came up with a target that, in terms of their domestic emissions reductions, would be 1.5-degree aligned. So that was really positive to see,” said Gonzales-Zuniga, adding that compared to targets for 2030, it was “definitely an increase in ambition”.
However, it’s not as simple as that. The UK still needs to bridge the gap between its promises and the policies it needs to put in place to meet those pledges.
And there’s more. According to the Carbon Action Tracker website, the UK’s responsibility extends further than just domestic cuts.
“They have a responsibility to provide climate finance to developing countries to reduce emissions outside their borders, to be able to say that they’re really contributing in a fair way to reduce emissions,” said Gonzales-Zuniga.
Indonesia: Phasing out fossil fuels
A high emitter in the Global South, experts say the climate goals due from are ones to watch for.
With a reliance on fossil fuels and significant deforestation contributing to emissions, the island nation produces more than 3% of all global greenhouse gases, but that could be about to change.
President Prabowo Subianto has promised to phase out fossil fuel and coal-power plants within the next 15 years and wants to reach net zero by 2050, a full decade earlier than previously planned.
The country has not yet submitted its new domestic targets.
United States: The dropouts
submitted a for the last year, pledging to reduce carbon emissions by 61% and 66% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.
Since then, however, has , essentially voiding the commitment. In a recent report, experts said the country had experienced its “most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory”.
Still, despite the policy U-turn, the report forecasts that the US is still on a path to reduce its greenhouse gases by 26 – 35% by 2035.
Speaking about the Paris Agreement, Gonzales-Zuniga said there had been some success, with the projected temperature rise by the end of the century having fallen.
However, she added: “We have always stressed that it was never in line with the actual goal of 1.5, so there is still that emissions gap that we are dealing with.”
Edited by: Sarah Steffen
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