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- JPMorgan economists are predicting thousands fewer H-1B applications per month.
- The projections come after Trump signed a law to charge $100,000 for new H-1B applications.
- The law could result in 5,500 fewer applications filed per month, the bank said in a report.
A new JPMorgan Chase report is shedding light on the chilling effect that the H-1B visa overhaul could have on the American labor market.
The report, published Tuesday, predicts that the US may see 5,500 fewer work authorizations each month as companies chafe at the eye-popping $100,000 cost for every new application they file.
They reached that number by taking the total number of new employment petitions for fiscal 2024, or 141,000, and projecting how many of them were processed in consulates outside the United States. Those roughly 65,000 consular petitions are most likely to be impacted by the new fee, the report said.
“It is possible that this change will make it less attractive for foreign students to come to the United States to study,” the report warned, adding that the changes could reduce this population’s post-graduation job opportunities in the US.”
The sweeping policy change, signed by President Trump on Friday, is designed to keep US jobs in the hands of American workers.
The reaction was swift, prompting panic on airplanes, confusion in C-suites, and unrest among early-career people worried about short- and long-term career prospects. The report said that many of the world’s leading companies use the visa program, including consulting firms, which amounted to nearly half of last year’s top 50 H-1B beneficiaries.
Last year, about 70% of H-1B visa applications were awarded to workers from India, and about two-thirds were focused on computer-related jobs, the report said.
That’s why the move to hike the visa fees so dramatically could be particularly painful for immigrant workers coming from India, the report said, even though “the number of affected workers is fairly small” in aggregate.
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