CNN data guru Harry Enten says a blue wave is far from a guarantee in next fall’s midterms.
The statistician warned Monday that Americans still trust Republicans more than Democrats on issues like crime, immigration, and the economy—despite President Donald Trump’s polling figures being “underwater.”
“At this particular point, the Democrats are the New Orleans Saints of political parties,” Enten said.
The Saints are among six NFL teams that remain winless in 2025, having lost on Sunday 44-13. In short, Enten says the Democrats are in a perilous place, even though Trump has opened the door for them to make gains with the electorate.
“So the bottom line is, at this particular point, the ball may be on the ground, but the Democrats have not picked up the ball and are not running with it,” he said. “If anything, at this particular point, it’s the Republicans who are running with the ball on the top issues—the economy, immigration, and crime.”
Enten took to his big board next. His graphic showed that Republicans lead by seven percentage points on the economy, 13 on immigration, and a whopping 22 on crime, according to a poll conducted by The Washington Post and Ipsos this month.
The data guru said that Republicans’ approval on many key issues has either held steady or improved since 2022, when the GOP gained eight seats in the House during the last midterms.
“I think this kind of gives away the game right here, OK?” Enten said. “The GOP is more trusted than the Dems on the economy. It was 12 points in 2022. Slight, slight decline in that lead, but still seven points. How about immigration? It was Republicans by three back in 2022. Look at this! The Republican lead has actually gone up by 10 points. What are you doing, Democrats? My goodness gracious.”
Enten then noted that Republicans’ lead on crime has climbed from +13 points to +22.
“The lead again expanding by nearly double digits,” he said of crime polling. “So whatever Democrats are doing, it ain’t working.”
The House currently has 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and has four vacant seats, making for a slim majority for the GOP. Things are equally tight in the Senate, which is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents who caucus with Democrats.
Congressional Democrats have more than a year to make up ground, and Enten has said previously that there is some hope for the party.
Just last month, Enten suggested that Trump’s failure to slow inflation would doom Republicans in the midterms. He noted that, at the time, Democratic lawmakers were viewed as more trustworthy than Republicans to handle inflation by a single percentage point. While the margin is thin, it represents a rapid shift from October 2022, when Republicans held a 13-point advantage on the issue.
“Poll after poll after poll says that Donald Trump has taken his eye off the ball, off the big issue of the day, which is inflation,” Enten said last month. “I can guarantee you this, Jessica, if these numbers look right now like they do—or will look—on Election Day 2026, there is no way on God’s green earth that Republicans can hold on to the House of Representatives.”
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