BRUSSELS — EU countries are racing to secure a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget before French presidential elections in April 2027, which they fear could hand power to the far right.
A seismic political shift in the EU’s second-largest country could disrupt the politically sensitive budget negotiations, which must be unanimously approved by national capitals and are driven by domestic priorities.
The president of the European Council, António Costa — who will broker the final stage of the talks — is working to secure a deal in the Council by the end of 2026, his spokesperson, Maria Tomasik, told reporters on Friday.
“At the European Council in December 2026, there will be blood on the walls,” said a senior EU diplomat, anticipating fierce negotiations. The diplomat, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely.
While French far-right National Rally party leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for public office after a French court found her guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds, she has challenged the ruling. Even if the decision is confirmed, the party’s second in command, Jordan Bardella, is seen as a serious contender to win the next election.
The risk of a far-right victory in France is the main reason why budget negotiations are being fast-tracked, five officials and EU diplomats told POLITICO.
That’s because National Rally’s far-right platform — which includes slashing France’s contributions to the EU budget and downsizing military aid to Ukraine — could throw a spanner in the Council negotiations.
Fueling the sense of urgency, other major EU countries, including Spain and Italy, are also set to go to the polls in 2027, adding a further layer of uncertainty to the budget talks.
This rapid timeline has caused some annoyance among some, such as Italy and Poland, which are critical of the Commission’s €1.816 trillion proposal. They argue that fast-tracking negotiations makes it harder for them to make substantial changes — and plays into the hands of fiscally disciplined Northern countries, who support the Commission’s blueprint.
Costa’s timeline, however, would leave enough time for the European Parliament to make its changes before the budget comes into force on Jan. 1, 2028.
Budget fast-track
Negotiations on the EU’s next common fund are notoriously torturous. During the last round, a deal was only sealed at the end of a four-night meeting between EU leaders.
But veterans of that summit, including Costa, are keen to do things differently this time.
For the time being, the Danish Council presidency is fast-tracking technical talks, much to the chagrin of several EU countries that would like more time to review the Commission’s proposal.
“We need time to understand better what’s been put on the table and all its implications,” said a second EU diplomat.
Earlier this week, Italy and six other EU countries urged a slower pace of negotiations during a meeting of deputy ambassadors. Critics argue that the current deadlines for submitting amendments are unreasonable.
Tensions are expected to come to a head next Wednesday during a budget-focused meeting of EU ambassadors.
The Danish presidency wants to agree on a counterproposal for the budget — a so-called negotiating box — in time for a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels in December.
Three EU diplomats said that Denmark is fast-tracking talks to bring forward the work before the Cypriot presidency, which has a very different set of priorities, takes over in January 2026.
CLARIFICATION: This article was updated on Sept. 19 to make the quotation by Maria Tomasik more precise.
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