LONDON — The U.K. is due to press ahead Sunday with recognition of a Palestinian state before making a formal declaration at the United Nations on Monday, according to three people briefed on the plans.
In taking this step, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chart an awkward course between his own party — many of whom want to see him move further and faster in support of Palestinians — and his hard-won alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, who remains vigorously opposed to the idea.
The prime minister will try to walk a diplomatic tightrope by forging ahead with the historic move, while dimming the spotlight on himself by declining to visit the U.N. General Assembly in person.
Whitehall officials have believed for weeks that the move is inevitable, given Starmer pledged in July that he would recognize Palestinian statehood before high-level meetings at the U.N. General Assembly — held next week in New York — if Israel failed to agree a ceasefire in Gaza.
However, a clearer pathway to recognition was taking shape even as Trump was on U.K. soil for his state visit.
And while the prime minister may gain plaudits with his party faithful for pressing ahead, the conversation inside Labour is already turning to new ways of applying more pressure on Israel.
Plan takes shape
Starmer effectively set the clock ticking on Palestinian recognition when he made his announcement in July, as the conditions he set for changing course were always unlikely to be met.
Now that pledge is coming into focus ahead of a conference focused on Palestinian statehood being convened by France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia, which will take place at the U.N. on Monday.
A government official, granted anonymity like others in this piece to speak candidly, said that while a formal decision had not yet been made at the time of speaking on Thursday, the U.K. had not changed its timescale nor its conditions on Israel.
Stepping up before meetings kick off in New York would allow Downing Street to gain extra credit with Labour MPs and party members, who lean toward supporting the Palestinian cause, while maintaining solidarity with the other nations expected to make a commitment at the France-led summit.
Emily Thornberry, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons foreign affairs committee, said: “I’ve been waiting 15 years for this … I’m really happy that it’s going to finally happen, and it doesn’t really matter what day it is.”
Richard Gowan, U.N. director at Crisis Group, said making a collective move would have the advantage of “safety in numbers” since “it reduces the risk that the U.S. will single anyone out for retribution from the U.S.,” adding, “I am not sure the U.K. wins or loses very much reputationally depending on the exact order.”
The question of recognition was a clear point of difference between Starmer and Trump during an otherwise harmonious state visit, with Trump specifying at their joint press conference that it was “one of our few disagreements.”
But he did not go on the attack — and even patted Starmer on the back as the British PM condemned Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Preparations are underway to mark the occasion on Monday, with Head of Palestinian Mission to the U.K. Husam Zumlot due to oversee a flag-raising ceremony in London, said a person with knowledge of the preparations.
The technicalities — such as how to acknowledge the state without interacting with Hamas and whether to send an ambassador to the West Bank — are less clear at this point.
“Nobody has put too much detail down,” said one foreign diplomat, who said that it was nonetheless an important “first step.”
The home crowd
The move would be auspiciously timed for Starmer, who is seeking to turn the page on a grim fortnight during which he has faced questions about his judgment while his personal ratings plummet.
It will land just ahead of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, and would please many of his MPs — including some Cabinet ministers — who have pushed hard for recognition and have come under fire from opponents for the party’s line on Gaza.
A second government official said recognition would be “something to take” to Labour members at conference, while a backbench MP put the stakes in bleaker terms.
“Domestically, if Keir had backtracked from it that would have definitely signed his death warrant,” politically, the MP said. “This is a tipping point at the moment. There are lots of people who are not big-P political who feel horrified by what’s happening in Gaza.”
However strong the symbolism of Starmer’s announcement, it is unlikely to quell internal party unrest on the issue as to whether the prime minister should take stronger action.
The second government official cited above warned the conference could still be a “shit storm” as there is no Gaza ceasefire on the horizon.
London Mayor Sadiq Khan, also from the Labour Party, has already said “it’s inescapable to draw the conclusion in Gaza we are seeing before our very eyes a genocide” following a landmark U.N. commission report this week, upping the pressure on the government to do the same.
One senior Labour MP predicted that sanctions on Israel, not the question of using the word genocide, will be the next big clash — including for Labour members.
The genocide question is “up to the courts,” the MP said, “though there is a legal opinion that we should do everything we can to stop a potential genocide, and that takes us to the question of sanctions.”
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