Powell Faces Challenges From Within the Fed, Too

Fed watch

The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December.

That may be the only straightforward thing about this meeting.

Let’s start with what’s likely. Investors and most economists are predicting a quarter-point cut, bringing the central bank’s benchmark rate to the range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent.

Economists see the Fed acting to bolster a rapidly cooling labor market, even as the overall economy appears stable and consumers continue to spend.

The vote could be rocky. President Trump has been pressuring the Fed to make a jumbo-size cut. Stephen Miran, who was sworn in on Tuesday for a temporary term as a governor — and who was recently on the White House payroll — will probably push for a more substantial cut. Will other dovish governors, including Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, join him?

It’s also unclear how inflation hawks will vote. Jeffrey Schmid, the Kansas City Fed president, has signaled that he would like to see inflation fall closer to the central bank’s 2 percent target before cutting rates. A key measure — the “core” Consumer Price Index — is at 3.1 percent.

Another wild card: Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has to contend with more than dissenting voices in the ranks. Markets are predicting the equivalent of six cuts by the end of 2026 — far more aggressive than what the Fed had signaled in June.

If the central bank sticks with its June outlook of two cuts this year, it would most likely draw more ire from Trump.

Will Powell address the elephant in the room? He has been adept at parrying questions about Fed independence despite Trump’s attacks. Economists and former Fed officials have warned that a loss of independence could damage investor confidence in U.S. institutions and U.S. financial assets. (The dollar was trading near a four-year low against the euro on Wednesday.)

Given that this is the first Fed meeting since Trump began efforts to fire Lisa Cook, the Fed governor accused of mortgage fraud, investors will look to see whether Powell gives a more full-throated defense of the central bank.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

Beijing reportedly bars Chinese tech companies from buying Nvidia’s A.I. chips. The country’s internet regulator told companies including ByteDance and Alibaba to cancel their orders of the RTX Pro 6000D chip, which was made specifically for the Chinese market, according to The Financial Times. The move comes as Beijing seeks to bolster domestic chipmakers, and some close to the government and industry have recently determined that their artificial intelligence processors were as capable as Nvidia ones available in China.

Details of the potential U.S.-China deal over TikTok come into focus. Under the framework agreement announced this week, a U.S.-controlled version of the app would license the algorithm that underlies its success from ByteDance, its Chinese parent company, according to The Times. A group that includes Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz and Silver Lake would hold an 80 percent stake, with a board member chosen by the White House, The Wall Street Journal reports. A big question: Is this enough to satisfy conditions of a U.S. law that would otherwise ban the app?

Big investments are announced before President Trump’s U.K. state visit. Microsoft, Nvidia and Google were some of the tech companies that introduced billions of dollars worth of deals for U.K. tech projects, including artificial intelligence research, in what’s being called the “Tech Prosperity Deal.” Meanwhile, the British drugmaker GSK pledged to invest $30 billion in American research and manufacturing operations, as Trump pushes pharmaceutical companies to shore up their American presences.

Quarterly quandary

President Trump’s proposal to eliminate the S.E.C. requirement that U.S. companies file quarterly reports has created a stir among investors and those in the C-suite.

Andrew asked DealBook readers to weigh in on Tuesday. Your responses, which have been edited for brevity, also reflected the divide.

Here are a few:

• “While I seldom agree with Trump on anything, I do think reporting quarterly earnings changes the focus of businesses and limits strategies.” — Lisa Ali

• “Since when is providing LESS information to investors better than more information? Efficient markets are those in which prices reflect information. More information makes markets work better and prices more accurate. Period.” — David Dubofsky

• “One of the unmentioned concerns is the impact of biannual reporting on the options market. There is a surge in options trading around earnings season — if we cut the earnings seasons from four to two, options trading would take a significant hit and investors, both retail and institutional, would be adversely impacted. Let’s not rock the options boat.” — Jack Nargundkar

• “Make it so public corporations are still required to file the quarterly S.E.C. paperwork with the S.E.C. No pressers, no commentary, etc.” — Robert Wilhelm

DealBook has questions, too: With the S&P 500 near a record, do the markets really need a potential shake-up in the earnings calendar? Even if this were to get approval, would some companies opt to stick with the status quo? Given the rise of retailing investing, it might be tempting for smaller companies looking for more visibility to stick with quarterly reports.

Redford’s other legacy

For most of the world, Robert Redford, who died on Tuesday at 89, was one of Hollywood’s most glamorous leading men, with a lengthy résumé filled with unforgettable roles. The Sundance Kid, Bob Woodward, Jay Gatsby — the list goes on.

But there’s another role that Redford played for years, adding to his legacy. As founder of the Sundance Institute and patron of the Sundance Film Festival, Redford oversaw the launchpad for generations of successful moviemakers.

How it started: In 1981, Redford founded the nonprofit Sundance Institute — after the Sundance Kid — to cultivate fresh cinematic voices. Several years later, he took over a struggling film festival and renamed it after the institute.

Sundance eventually created a huge impact. The institute became a hotbed of promising movie talent: Steven Soderbergh, Ryan Coogler, Quentin Tarantino, James Wan, Darren Aronofsky, Nicole Holofcener, Paul Thomas Anderson, David O. Russell, Robert Rodriguez, Chloé Zhao and Ava DuVernay all ascended through Sundance.

And the festival, held in snowy Park City, Utah, became a celebration of independent film, drawing 6,500 submissions by 2005 — and the scene of sometimes intense bidding wars for promising titles. (That said, Redford carped about Sundance’s commercialization over the years: “I want the ambush marketers — the vodka brands and the gift-bag people and the Paris Hiltons — to go away forever,” he once told a reporter.)

It was also an economic boon for Utah, according to The Times: Out-of-state visitors spent $106.4 million, generating a total economic impact of $132 million (including 1,730 jobs for state residents), according to a report published after last year’s festival.

(Redford also had his share of business challenges, including the collapse of plans to create a Sundance chain of movie theaters and the sale of his stake in the Sundance Channel cable network.)

What’s next? While the Sundance festival is still going strong, it will soon decamp for Boulder, Colo., after organizers said it had outgrown Park City.

The institute is working on ways to support independent film at a time when it’s harder for many movies — especially smaller ones — to break through to mainstream success.

How to launder money

We read about money laundering in the headlines and sometimes see it happening in movies, but have you ever wondered how it actually works in the real world?

Ian Frisch, a DealBook contributor, had a front-row seat to the process while writing a new book, “Inside the Cartel,” with Martin Suarez, a former F.B.I. agent credited with discovering one of the most sophisticated money laundering networks while going undercover with Colombian drug cartels in the 1990s.

The network’s scheme, called the Black Market Peso Exchange, is still causing problems: The Trump administration issued an advisory memo last month reporting that Mexico-based drug cartels were using Chinese money laundering networks to execute a similar strategy, which the administration called “one of the most significant money laundering threat actors facing the U.S. financial system.”

Ian explains how it works:

• After smuggling, say, $50 million worth of cocaine into the United States and selling it for American dollars, a Colombian cartel will employ a peso broker to launder the funds.

• The peso broker collects the money, and a team of “smurfs” exchanges the cash for money orders, which are then deposited into shell bank accounts.

• The broker uses these accounts to buy legal merchandise — like cigarettes and car tires — that are then imported to Colombia and sold for local currency. The broker takes his fee, and the cartel gets its money.

In 2021, The Justice Department settled a civil forfeiture action for $29 million against the real estate firm Sefira Capital, which was accused of accepting millions of dollars from narcotics proceeds laundered through the Black Market Peso Exchange. And this year, two people were sentenced in Texas for their role in laundering money through the exchange for a Mexico-based drug cartel.

Why it’s so hard to stop: It’s nearly impossible to know if 500 dishwashers bound for Colombia will be used to reimburse a drug cartel. It’s much easier for law enforcement to flag a $50 million wire transfer from a U.S. bank account to a Colombian bank account as suspicious.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

• The ticket exchange StubHub raised $800 million in its I.P.O. after pricing its shares at $23.50, in the middle of its expected range. (Bloomberg)

• “Foreign investors in U.S. assets rush for protection against swings in dollar” (FT)

Politics, policy and regulation

• “The California-Washington tech fight heats up” (Politico)

• Britain’s embrace of live facial recognition and other digital surveillance technology is facing significant pushback. (NYT)

Best of the rest

• “The Commerce Secretary, a Gilded Hotel and Claims of a Secret Plan” (NYT)

• The whole world, and not just the U.S., has soured on climate politics. (NYT)

We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to [email protected].

Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.

Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.

Sarah Kessler is the weekend edition editor of the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business.

Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.

Niko Gallogly is a Times reporter, covering business for the DealBook newsletter.

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