Every four years, Washington watches the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia, eager for clues about voter sentiment 12 months ahead of midterm races that determine party control of the House and Senate.
That has never been more true than it is right now.
With the country on edge and Democrats desperate for momentum, this year’s only two races for governor have taken on outsize national relevance.
In New Jersey, where the contest is particularly competitive, the energy is striking, with money pouring in from national groups on both sides of the aisle and party activists from outside the state offering help.
“It’s just basically trying to win the race in every way we can,” said April Newland, a real estate agent in the Virgin Islands who is active in Republican politics and is preparing to travel to New Jersey to volunteer for the Republican candidate for governor, Jack Ciattarelli.
The election, she said, will help Republicans understand which issues are resonating with voters as the party prepares for congressional races in 2026. “It will give us a better idea of all the things that we need to do,” said Ms. Newland, a member of the Republican National Committee.
Democrats are approaching the race to elect their nominee, Representative Mikie Sherrill, in much the same way.
“In my lifetime, I don’t recall a moment like this,” said Mo Butler, a Democratic political consultant and a former chief of staff to Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey. “This is the first real test: What sort of approach? What message? What sort of organizing principle is going to be the one that works?”
Both candidates have focused, broadly, on affordability and have presented themselves as best positioned to upend the status quo.
For Mr. Ciattarelli, that means depicting Ms. Sherrill as an extension of the state’s Democratic governor, Philip D. Murphy. Ms. Sherrill has fastened on to Mr. Ciattarelli’s embrace of President Trump, who endorsed him and assured voters that the Republican nominee was “all in” on MAGA.
With six weeks to go before Election Day, television and online ads regularly remind voters of what’s at stake.
The race is considered much closer than in Virginia, where the Democratic candidate, Abigail Spanberger, is widely seen as the front-runner, in part because the Trump administration’s federal work force cuts have been felt acutely in the state.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Jersey by about 860,000 voters and Ms. Sherrill has had the edge in every poll released. But Mr. Trump did far better than expected in the state in 2024 — losing to Vice President Kamala Harris by just six percentage points, a marked improvement from 2016 and 2020, when he flopped by double digits.
His showing, and the state’s 2.3 million voters who are unaffiliated with either party and considered up for grabs, have given Republicans reason to hope.
Unlike in 2021, when Mr. Murphy was expected to coast to victory, Democratic leaders appear to be taking little for granted. Mr. Murphy is barred by term limits from running for a third term.
“We know we need Virginia and New Jersey,” Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, last year’s Democratic vice-presidential nominee, told an audience last month at the Democratic National Committee’s summer meeting in Minneapolis. “Get those won. Prepare for the midterms.”
On Tuesday, the committee announced it would kick in another $1.5 million in support of Ms. Sherrill, bringing its total to $3 million — more than it has ever invested in a governor’s race in New Jersey. A group associated with the Democratic Governors Association has committed to spending $20 million to help boost Ms. Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot.
National Republican organizations have so far contributed significantly less. The Republican Governors Association has spent $1.5 million on recent ads in support of Mr. Ciattarelli and on Tuesday purchased $1.1 million more.
Four years ago, the D.N.C. spent less than half as much on Mr. Murphy’s re-election effort against Mr. Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who at the time was running his second race for governor. Mr. Murphy won by just three points, and Mr. Ciattarelli used his concession speech to announce he would run in 2025 for a third time.
He has been campaigning ever since.
“This is not a safe seat for Democrats — at all,” said Benjamin Dworkin, director of Rowan University’s Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “It’s going to be a very tight race.”
More than a dozen surveys conducted by the campaigns and by independent polling outfits have shown Ms. Sherrill with at least a small lead over Mr. Ciattarelli. But not since 1961 has either party managed to hold on to the governor’s office in Trenton for three consecutive terms.
Both sides see the results as a potential bellwether.
“If Democrats were to retain Jersey and win back Virginia, it would be seen as a sign of things to come,” said David Axelrod, a Democratic political consultant and former adviser to President Barack Obama. “That heightens enthusiasm.”
The president’s support for Mr. Ciattarelli most likely contributed to his 46-point victory in the Republican primary. But it could prove to be a liability in the general election: Mr. Trump is viewed favorably by only an estimated 37 percent of likely New Jersey voters, a rate below national averages.
Still, Mr. Ciattarelli has not tried to distance himself significantly from Mr. Trump, unlike in 2015, when Mr. Ciattarelli called him a charlatan unfit to lead the country.
Three years later, Ms. Sherrill was elected to Congress in a so-called blue wave, as voters responded to Mr. Trump’s first-term victory by flipping the House. Her supporters are hoping to replicate that anti-Trump energy on Nov. 4.
“Trump changes the calculus around this entire election,” Mr. Butler said.
Janice Fields, one of New Jersey’s two Republican National Committee members, could not agree more, although she considers the president a clear-cut asset.
Ms. Fields, the mayor of Bernards Township, N.J., said that she had been stunned by the number of new Republican volunteers who had never been active before Mr. Trump’s election. That has emboldened the Republican Party in New Jersey to actively campaign in urban areas once seen as Democrat-only turf, she said.
“We have a whole wave of new people wanting to get involved, in part thanks to Trump,” Ms. Fields said. “We’re going into areas where Republicans don’t necessarily go.”
The Republican Party has set up a field office in Passaic, a city in northern New Jersey where 38 percent of residents were born outside the United States and 73 percent are Latino. Mr. Ciattarelli has also been spending time in churches with predominantly Black congregations.
“We’re playing on their side of the field,” said Chris Russell, a top Ciattarelli strategist.
Each of the candidates raised roughly $9 million during the primaries, according to their most recent filings with the state Election Law Enforcement Commission. But spending by special interest groups has been 14 to 1 in Ms. Sherrill’s favor, according to an analysis by New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice, suggesting an extraordinary level of interest in the race as Democrats struggle to regain footing in Washington.
Ken Martin, chairman of the D.N.C., said in a statement that he hoped success in New Jersey would build party momentum.
“The stakes of the New Jersey elections in 2025 couldn’t be higher,” he said.
Tracey Tully is a reporter for The Times who covers New Jersey, where she has lived for more than 20 years.
The post A Tossup Race for Governor Draws Big Money and a Bright Spotlight appeared first on New York Times.
