BRUSSELS — Sorry, guys. We’ll get back to you.
That’s the message the European Union is expected to deliver at a pivotal climate summit of world leaders next week after the bloc’s countries were unable to agree on a plan to reduce planet-warming emissions by 2035.
Failure to submit a target to the United Nations this month would undermine the EU’s ability to influence the efforts of other nations and result in diplomatic embarrassment for the bloc, which has long claimed a leadership role in global climate talks — particularly as China is expected to present its plan on time.
But EU governments, who have to unanimously approve the 2035 plan mandated by the Paris Agreement, are at odds over how to arrive at the target.
As a result, Denmark, the country currently chairing negotiations among governments, suggested to other countries on Tuesday that the EU will merely send a “statement of intent” to the U.N. instead of submitting the required formal plan.
The Danes now expect the EU’s 27 environment ministers to finalize and approve the statement of intent at their meeting in Brussels on Thursday. Three diplomats briefed on Tuesday’s talks said that while ministers may discuss a formal plan, there is virtually no chance of approving it.
This means the EU will miss the U.N.’s end-of-September deadline to submit an official 2035 target. Instead, if greenlit by ministers on Thursday, the bloc will show up at a Sept. 24 summit on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly with only a promise to eventually deliver a goal.
A spokesperson for the Danish negotiating team said that Copenhagen “received broad support for our approach of exploring a statement of intent,” as this “would ensure that [the] EU does not go to [the] U.N. climate summit empty-handed.”
But the Danes also said they were “aware of different positions on the exact content,” and the three diplomats said that Thursday’s ministerial summit would involve difficult negotiations to reach a consensus.
The statement as drafted by Denmark proposes a temporary emissions-cutting target of between 66.3 percent and 72.5 percent below 1990 levels by 2035. EU countries would have to agree on a definitive target at a later date.
While too late for the U.N. deadline, this approach gives Denmark another chance to secure support for the more ambitious target. To achieve that, they will have to find a landing ground among sharply divergent views held by governments.
The EU had intended to derive a 2035 goal of 72.5 percent from a new 2040 milestone that is currently being negotiated. That plan was derailed by disagreements over the 2040 legislation. On Friday, Denmark postponed a vote scheduled for this week after major countries blocked progress.
Some countries, such as Poland, have advocated for the EU to submit the range as the formal target, which would not be unusual: Brazil, the host of this year’s COP30 climate summit, has done so.
But for the EU, it would nevertheless represent a weaker goal, as it would see the EU effectively commit to a 66.3 percent target, while leaving open the possibility for further improvement.
For that reason, another group of countries is fiercely opposed to disconnecting the 2035 target from the 2040 goal.
Just when the EU will submit its finalized plan to the U.N. remains unclear. The Danish statement insists that the bloc will do so before COP30 starts in early November.
EU countries agreed last week to host a debate among national leaders, scheduled for Oct. 23, before agreeing on a 2040 target. That will leave just two weeks to then strike a deal on both goals ahead of the summit in Brazil.
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