When it comes to the rising cost of groceries, few items have increased more over the past year than beef, which is now more expensive than ever in the United States.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of steak is up 16.6% compared to last year, while ground beef has risen nearly 13%. Only eggs (27%) and coffee (21%) have seen steeper increases.
A recent study from Kansas State University confirms that meat price inflation has significantly outpaced inflation for other goods this year.
So, what’s driving the beef price surge?
Experts say there isn’t a single cause, but rather a confluence of factors. Among them: the U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level since 1951 – just 86.7 million cattle and calves as of January 2025- while consumer demand remains strong.
Additionally, drought conditions in the West since 2020 have driven up the cost of feed and forced many ranches to cull their herds. A flesh-eating parasite discovered in cattle herds in Mexico prompted the U.S. to stop imports from south of the border last year, further tightening supply.
U.S. cattle ranchers say they have no choice but to pass along the increased cost of doing business to consumers to protect their margins.
“I went up roughly a dollar a pound,” said Jim Richardson of Richardson Farms in Texas, speaking to the Texas Standard. “My processor went up that much or more. So, without kind of keeping up, it erodes your profitability.”
The American Farm Bureau also points to President Trump’s tariffs as slowing U.S. beef exports.
“While exports to countries like South Korea and Canada have remained strong, tariffs have slowed sales down, particularly to China,” the Farm Bureau noted in a report in May. “Total export sales to China are currently 32% behind 2024.”
When will beef prices come down?
Unfortunately, the short-term outlook is grim. Demand for beef typically cools with the weather in the fall as fewer people grill outdoors, but experts say the underlying issues can’t be solved quickly or easily.
Brenda Boetel, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin, says consumers still seem willing to pay more for beef despite the high prices.
“I’m actually surprised how resilient beef demand has continued to stay with the very high prices,” Boetel said, adding that she doesn’t expect prices to decline for at least another year.
The Farm Bureau says prices will only fall dramatically if demand also wanes—which might be good news for consumers, but not for the ranching industry as a whole.
“Even with these record-high prices, margins for cattle farmers and ranchers are razor-thin thanks to continued elevated supply costs,” the Farm Bureau noted. “Any decline in consumer confidence or household financial health could weaken demand, forcing packers to lower bids and triggering financial losses for cattle farmers and ranchers.”
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