is marking three years since died in the custody of the Islamic regime’s so-called morality police.
The 22-year-old’s death on September 16, 2022, sparked widespread anti-government protests across the Middle Eastern nation, which eventually
Iranian authorities brutally clamped down on the demonstrations, killing at least 500 people and arresting over 20,000, according to human rights groups.
Even though the Islamic theocratic regime managed to hold on to power, the death of Amini is seen as a turning point for Iran and its society.
What has changed since Jina Mahsa Amini’s death?
The most notable shift is the growing reluctance of many women, particularly younger women living in cities,
Defying the pressures and threats from security forces and the morality police, these women have been resisting the hijab mandate — the same one that was used to arrest Amini — and
Atefeh Chaharmahaliyan is an Iranian writer and human rights activist who was arrested during the 2022 uprising and spent more than 70 days in prison.
Chaharmahaliyan, who is now living in Germany, said “the people’s demands now go beyond freedom of dress.”
“Iranians — especially the younger generation — clearly understand that economic demands and the pursuit for freedom are like two pillars of the same structure; without one, the other collapses,” she told DW.
A tense moment for Iran’s leadership
The anniversary of Amini’s death comes at a tense moment for Iran’s leadership, which is still reeling from the
Since the strikes, Iran’s economic woes have worsened, deepening public disenchantment and laying bare the dysfunction at the heart of the Islamic Republic.
The situation is making the regime increasingly insecure, said a civil society activist in Tehran.
“Since the war with Israel, the number of arrests has surged, and the pace of executions has accelerated horrifically,” the activist, who asked not to be named for security reasons, told DW. “The government is using this persistent pressure to intimidate people, to keep protesters from returning to the streets.”
The activist underlined that Iranians’ “passion for freedom and justice” has remained intact despite the regime’s repression. “These demands have, in fact, become more deeply rooted and more conscious.”
Will there be a new mass movement?
But Helen Nosrat, an Iranian women’s rights activist based in Germany, remains skeptical about the possibility of mass anti-government protests in Iran anytime soon.
“Although the Mahsa movement left a lasting cultural impact on Iranian society and severely weakened compulsory hijab, it is unlikely that a movement of similar scale could emerge in Iran after the recent war with Israel,” she said.
“The wartime situation has created much bigger problems for people, and many are now focused on survival — on protecting themselves and their families — rather than changing the government.”
Behnam Daraeizadeh, a lawyer and researcher at the US-based Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI), shared a similar view.
“Regional developments and Iran’s military confrontations with Israel and the United States do not necessarily fuel protests. They can even play a restraining and paralyzing role,” he said.
“War reinforces the perception in society that the future lies in the hands of military and diplomatic actors, not the people. And as military tensions rise, the government intensifies its repression of civil activists.”
Iranians bear brunt of acute economic crisis
Chaharmahaliyan, the Iranian writer, said the conflict with Israel has “intensified the chain of longstanding crises in Iran.”
“The combination of economic hardship and demands for freedom creates serious conditions for a new wave of protests,” she added.
Observers say the
Iran’s economy has long been under severe strain due to sweeping US sanctions since Washington’s 2018 withdrawal from a landmark nuclear deal during US President Donald Trump’s first term in office.
Upon returning to office in January,
Iran is currently grappling with high inflation, shrinking purchasing power, youth unemployment and increasing poverty.
Daraeizadeh said any fresh protest movement in Iran will likely be driven by economic demands, the deepening economic crisis, severe inequality, and the anger of the poor and marginalized communities — especially in smaller towns and underprivileged regions.
Chaharmahaliyan stressed that any new uprising would “very likely be deeper and more radical than the movement three years ago.”
“The more pressure mounts on border regions, poor areas, and vulnerable economic groups, the more likely it becomes that ethnic minorities, residents of border provinces, and labor sectors will join in, and that strikes will be broader and more organized than three years ago,” she underscored.
Nosrat echoed this view: “The next protest movement will probably emphasize economic issues, social justice, and security. Perhaps the word ‘life’ will resonate more strongly than ‘freedom.’”
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru
The post Mahsa Amini: 3 years on, will Iran face fresh protests? appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
