Russia and Belarus have begun large-scale military exercises, raising alarm across NATO’s eastern flank just days after Warsaw accused Moscow of sending attack drones across Polish airspace, a major escalation that sent shivers through Europe.
The Zapad 2025 manoeuvres, which run from Friday until Tuesday, are taking place as Russian forces continue their slow advance in Ukraine and intensify air attacks on Ukrainian cities. The Kremlin insists the drills were planned well before the drone incident.
“The objectives of the drills are to improve the skills of commanders and staffs, the level of cooperation and field training of regional and coalition groupings of troops,” Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on Telegram.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed the exercises, including those near the Polish border, “are not aimed against any other country”.
But tensions are running high. Poland shut its last open border crossings with Belarus overnight, with state media in Minsk showing guards laying barbed wire along the frontier.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the coming period as “critical days”, warning that his country was closer to “open conflict” than at any time since World War II.
“This decision to close the border … is a response to very specific aggressive military exercises against Poland that are starting in Belarus,” Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski said. “We are doing this for the safety of our citizens. Russia has been behaving aggressively towards Poland in recent days and for many years … towards the entire civilised world.”
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha welcomed his Polish counterpart Radosław Sikorski in Kyiv before talks on shared security on Friday.
“Against the backdrop of Russia’s escalation of terror against Ukraine and provocations against Poland, we stand firmly together,” Sybiha wrote on X.
Baltic states step up security
Neighbouring Lithuania and Latvia, also NATO members, have stepped up security and announced partial airspace closures. Belarus says the drills will take place near Borisov, east of Minsk.
In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Moscow’s intentions went beyond its war in Ukraine. “The meaning of such actions by Russia is definitely not defensive and is directed precisely against not only Ukraine,” he said.
Zapad exercises are normally held every four years. The last, in 2021, mobilised some 200,000 Russian troops shortly before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This year’s version is expected to be smaller, as much of Russia’s military remains committed to the battlefield. Belarus initially announced 13,000 troops would join, later halving that figure.
Polish officials believe the drills may simulate an attack on the Suwalki corridor – the narrow stretch of NATO territory linking Poland and Lithuania between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Military planners see the corridor as one of the alliance’s most vulnerable points.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko dismissed those concerns as “utter nonsense”, while officials in Minsk earlier claimed the exercises were shifted away from NATO borders “to reduce tensions”.
In the meantime, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said France will summon the Russian ambassador on Friday over this week’s drone incursion into Poland’s airspace, which he told France Inter radio was a deliberate strategy.
France will deploy three Rafale fighter jets to help Poland protect its airspace after the drone incursions, French President Emmanuel Macron said late on Thursday.
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