At China’s massive military parade this month celebrating the end of World War II in the Pacific, Beijing showcased its line of anti-ship hypersonic missiles—an implicit warning that in a future conflict, the United States could see its $13 billion aircraft carriers at the bottom of the sea.
China is not the only U.S. adversary investing in the weapons. Russia has also made strides in fielding hypersonic missiles, whose high speeds and maneuverability make them the ideal weapon for destroying high-value targets.
U.S. hypersonic weapons, meanwhile, are trailing behind, although experts say the country is making progress. “While we were busy on counterterrorism, China worked in earnest on this. They have had a lead, but we’re catching up,” said Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.
Hypersonic weapons travel at more than five times the speed of sound, a feature that has major military advantages but also poses tough design problems related to the heat generated.
Weapons development around the globe is currently focused on two key types of hypersonic weapons: cruise missiles, which are powered by rockets, and hypersonic glide vehicles, which reach hypersonic velocity by dropping off of rockets launched into the atmosphere.
Both are difficult for missile defenses to intercept due to the weapons’ speed and ability to change course. The ideal targets for such missiles are heavily defended locations or those that are time-sensitive, such as when targeting aircraft carriers or senior military officials.
China and Russia appear to be making progress on hypersonic weaponry, although their at times bombastic claims make it difficult to assess their true capabilities.
On Sept. 3, China showed off an array of hypersonic weapons, including designs that Beijing would likely use to sink U.S. warships in a conflict: the YJ-17, 19, and 20. While not all designs may have moved past the experimentation stage, China reportedly began to supply its forces with the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle in 2020.
In a sign of its seriousness, China has also invested heavily in hypersonic testing. As far back as 2018, Michael Griffin, then a senior U.S. defense official, said at a conference that China had already held 20 times more hypersonic tests than the United States in the last decade.
Russia’s key programs are the Avangard, a glide vehicle, and the Zircon, a cruise missile. Russia also fields the Kinzhal, a weapon derived from older, less maneuverable ballistic missile technology that Moscow has nevertheless described as a hypersonic weapon. Russia says all three weapons are out of the development stage and being produced for its forces.
Russia’s hype has not lived up to reality, though. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin claiming in 2018 that the Kinzhal was “invincible,” Ukraine in April said it had shot down 40 of the missiles since 2022. Ukraine has also reportedly shot down Zircon missiles.
Russia has at least fielded hypersonic weapons, though, in contrast to the United States. A U.S. Army program to field a hypersonic weapon has experienced multiple delays, although the military says it is now on track to deploy the weapon, dubbed Dark Eagle, by the end of this year.
U.S. Air Force programs have similarly faced delays to two key hypersonic programs: a glide vehicle called the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) and a cruise missile called the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM).
Both have experienced development problems, but the Air Force is seeking to start producing the ARRW in 2026, according to budget documents, and the HACM in 2027, according to a report from the Government Accountability Office.
Yet the United States’ slow pace in hypersonic weapons development may sound worse than it is, said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.
For one, China lacks similar numbers of the sorts of maneuverable, high-value targets that hypersonic weapons are designed to destroy, Harrison said. The Chinese carrier fleet, for example, consists of just three vessels—against the 11 that the U.S. Navy fields. The United States also has more ways of getting past enemy air defenses, for instance, by using its fleet of stealth aircraft, which outclass Chinese capabilities.
For Washington, hypersonics are “more of a niche capability,” Harrison added.
The Trump administration, at least on paper, seems interested in closing the hypersonic gap with Russia and China. Speaking during his confirmation hearing in February, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg said the United States had spent too little money on hypersonics and called them “essential” for national security.
How fast Washington closes the gap, though, is an open question. Karako, the CSIS expert, said he hadn’t seen significant signs that money had been diverted.
“You see some modest, modest glimmers in the reconciliation bill and the latest president’s budget but not just a ton yet.”
The post China and Russia Are Winning the Hypersonic Missile Race appeared first on Foreign Policy.
