A no-man’s-land only about 15 meters [16 yards] wide forms the border between and Belarus, a close . Two metal fences line the 600-kilometer-long strip of land. The one on the Lithuanian side is topped with barbed wire. Above it, surveillance cameras rotate regularly from left to right, making a humming sound as they zoom in and out. Fears that there could be breaches at the border have risen in Lithuania since in February 2022.
These have been exacerbated by Zapad 2025, joint maneuvers between Russia and involving tens of thousands of soldiers that are scheduled to take place from September 12 to 16. Zapad, which means west in Russian, is the name given to these exercises, which began in 1977 and have taken place every four years since — with interruptions — mainly on Belarusian territory.
This year, soldiers will not only train with tanks and machine guns but also with Russia’s new Oreshnik missiles, which can reportedly carry nuclear warheads.
As a result, Lithuania’s border guards have received extra training in recent weeks; they will carry out additional patrols during the joint military exercises, explained General Rustamas Liubajevas from Lithuania’s border control service.
“Now, is much more taken as a possible aggressor,” he told DW. “We are preparing for a very broad range of provocations. Those might be the use of migrants, aggressive actions at the border against border guards by migrants.”
Russia is reported to have deliberately brought thousands of migrants to Belarus in 2022 in order to send them across the and other countries. Some experts believe that Russia intended to destabilize the European Union and its members by doing so.
Liubajevas said that Lithuania was preparing in case soldiers crossed the border without permission or sent drones across. He said that there had been such “hybrid attacks” before. All of the Baltic states report regularly that drones violate their airspace. In July, two drones crashed in Lithuania after entering the country from Belarus. Earlier this month, and were shot down.
Lithuania increases military budget
Lithuania too is demonstrating its military might this month. Over the coming days, it is organizing its own military exercises with Poland, , and ; some 40,000 soldiers are expected to participate. Lithuania also plans to increase its military budget to more than in 2026. In 2021, it still lay at below 2%.
Linas Kojala, the head of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, a think tank in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, believes that the danger is primarily long-term.
“Russia perceives us as territories that should be under the Kremlin’s direct or indirect control,” he told DW.
He did not think that Russia would invade Lithuania in the immediate future but “what we are going to be looking for is whether these troops are going to be staying there after the exercises, whether Russia increases its presence on Belarusian soil, including the infrastructure, and possibly preparing for some scenarios in two, five, seven or 10 years.”
Concern about such scenarios has been widespread among Lithuanians since the war in , said Margarita Seselgyte, director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.
“During the first weeks of Russia’s war against Ukraine, a lot of people considered leaving the country,” she told DW. “I also heard a number of people saying they should take their families out of the country during the actual Zapad exercises.”
Seselgyte pointed out that this is how the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began: Russian troops were moved to the border for an exercise and then reinforced. But she too was more concerned about the long term. She said for now Lithuania was “more or less safe” if Ukraine did not lose the war or was not forced into signing a “bad peace deal.”
She said if this were the case and the war were to end, the Baltics could be next on the list.
Baltic states are in the ‘same boat’
Karlis Bukovskis, director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs in Riga, capital of Latvia, shares these concerns. The Baltic states are united on everything that is going on with Russia,” he told DW. “We see ourselves as a single entity. The that we’re in the same boat.”
“Our trauma goes back to the Hitler-Stalin pact — the secret protocols dividing Europe and the Baltic states — into spheres of influence and spheres of control. Poland was also divided. After that, the were occupied by the Soviet Union.”
That is why all Russian military drills near the border were a reason for concern, he said. However, he added there was some reason for optimism today. “The Zapad drills are expected to be less big size-wise this year, as the Russian army is busy in Ukraine.”
He added that he was grateful that there were — from the UK, Germany and France — stationed in the Baltic states: “We are not alone!”
Aida and Mekhislav Tarashkevich are afraid of the upcoming military exercises. The two factory workers have lived in the Lithuanian village of Gulbine for almost two decades. Located seven kilometers from the Belarusian border, the village boasts just seven houses.
“The military exercises are just around the corner — everyone in our village is very worried about them. All the more so because we see what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” the 59-year-old Mechislav told DW.
“I don’t understand why people have to fight,” added Aida. “We all just want to live a normal life, to do our jobs, and to live peacefully in our homes.”
This article was translated from German.
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