Donald Trump’s greatest foreign-policy achievement came out of nowhere. On August 13, 2020, with essentially no advance warning or leaks, the president announced on Twitter that Israel was establishing diplomatic and trade relations with the United Arab Emirates, a wealthy Middle Eastern country that had previously rejected the Jewish state’s right to exist. “HUGE breakthrough today!” Trump wrote. “Historic Peace Agreement between our two GREAT friends, Israel and the United Arab Emirates!” After this declaration, the diplomatic dominoes fell in rapid succession; other Arab states joined what became known as the Abraham Accords, culminating in a signing ceremony at the White House one month later.
Less remembered is what the Accords prevented: Israeli annexation of the West Bank. In exchange for Emirati recognition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government agreed to a “suspension of Israel’s plans to extend its sovereignty.” In plain English, Israel’s conservative coalition shelved plans to formally incorporate swaths of occupied Palestinian territory into Israel, preserving a path to a two-state solution and deferring a longtime dream of the country’s settlers that had been inching closer to fruition.
Since then, the Accords have proved remarkably durable, weathering even the past two years of the Gaza war. But that may be about to change. On September 3, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, unveiled a proposal to annex 82 percent of the West Bank and called on Netanyahu to enact it. “It is time to apply Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria,” he said in a statement, referring to the area’s biblical names, “and remove once and for all the idea of dividing our small land and establishing a terrorist state in its heart.” The next day, top Israeli ministers were scheduled to discuss the idea of annexation—that is, until the UAE intervened.
“Annexation would be a red line for my government, and that means there can be no lasting peace,” Emirati special envoy Lana Nusseibeh told The Times of Israel in a rare public intervention in Israeli politics. “We trust that President Trump will not allow the Abraham Accords tenet of his legacy to be tarnished, threatened or derailed by extremists and radicals.” The planned cabinet discussion was abruptly called off. But the issue of annexation is far from resolved, and it threatens to upend Trump’s signature international triumph.
Critics have correctly noted that the Abraham Accords did not bring peace to the Middle East; they consisted of deals between Israel and countries with which it had never been at war. But on the campaign trail and in the White House, the president has repeatedly touted the Accords as a prized accomplishment, and shortly before the 2024 election, he promised that expanding them would be an “absolute priority.” Just a few weeks ago, he wrote on Truth Social that “it is very important to me that all Middle Eastern Countries join the Abraham Accords.” Annexation, however, could upend that entire process, undoing past agreements and making future ones impossible. Yet Israel’s government continues to press the prospect.
The reason this subject will not go away is that Netanyahu is beholden to those who don’t want it to go away. When the Israeli leader originally negotiated the Abraham Accords, he did so personally, making the decisions himself and keeping even his own foreign and defense ministers in the dark. Today, however, Netanyahu’s political position has deteriorated dramatically. His unpopular coalition received just 48.4 percent of the vote in Israel’s last election and depends on an assortment of anti-Arab ideologues and religious messianists to remain in power. The result: On core issues such as the Gaza conflict and whether the country’s ultra-Orthodox serve in its army, Netanyahu does not command his coalition; it commands him. And that coalition wants West Bank annexation. In July, days before Netanyahu last visited Trump in Washington, 15 ministers in his Likud party signed a letter calling on him to apply Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank by the end of the month.
In November 2024, I predicted that the Israeli right’s refusal to abandon annexation made a conflict over it inevitable in Trump’s second term. Today that clash has arrived, and it will play out not just between Israel and its Arab partners, but within the American administration itself, where some support annexation but others do not. The players are already moving into position. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reportedly signaled that any Israeli advances on the West Bank would dash hopes of his country entering the Abraham Accords.
In this competition between annexationists and accordists, Trump will be the decider. Netanyahu has tied his entire political persona to the president, alienating most other international allies while telling the Israeli people that only he can manage the mercurial American leader. With elections looming next year, the prime minister cannot afford a public break with the president. Whatever Trump decides on annexation, Netanyahu will have to accept and spin as his own preferred policy.
The question, as ever, is where Trump stands. Will he rubber-stamp whatever Netanyahu’s coalition decides, or will the president side with his Arab allies and seek to protect his foreign-policy legacy from the Israeli right? To date, the administration has been noncommittal. “What you’re seeing with the West Bank and the annexation, that’s not a final thing,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last week. “That’s something being discussed among some elements of Israeli politics. I’m not going to opine on that today.” Later this month, Rubio is scheduled to visit Israel, where these developments will undoubtedly be raised.
Trump himself has thus far avoided tipping his hand. Back in February, the president hosted Netanyahu at the White House and detailed his plan to relocate the Gazan people and turn their territory into a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Lost amid the chaos and controversy over that proposal was something else Trump said at that fateful meeting. Asked by an Israeli reporter whether he supports “Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria,” the president responded, “We will be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks.”
That was 30 weeks ago. Trump has been able to sidestep the subject of annexation until now, but if events continue to unfold as they have been, he will not be able to evade a decision much longer.
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