The incursion by Russian drones over Poland that prompted NATO forces to launch warplanes overnight is the latest of several cases since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in which the airspace of European countries near the Ukrainian border has been violated.
Violations of airspace are particularly sensitive in NATO countries like Poland.
The latest incursions there came during a large-scale Russian drone attack on Ukraine, and it remained unclear if they were intentional. Belarus, a Russian ally, issued a statement that framed the episode — without providing evidence — as an accident.
Still, any violation of a NATO country’s airspace raises fears that the conflict could spread and trigger a response by the alliance.
In some past cases, what landed in countries neighboring Ukraine was believed to be debris from Russian drones or missiles that were shot down. And in one case, a Ukrainian air-defense missile likely went astray as it tried to fight off a Russian attack.
Here are some past incidents:
Poland
In November 2022, in one of the incidents that caused the most alarm, Poland said that an explosion that killed two people near the Ukrainian border had “most likely” been caused by a Russian-made missile. But nearly a year later, a Polish investigation found that the deaths had, in fact, most likely been caused by a Ukrainian air-defense missile that had misfired while attempting to shoot down a Russian missile over Ukraine. However, the Polish government and NATO said that Russia was ultimately to blame because of its war in Ukraine.
In March 2024, a Russian cruise missile briefly violated Polish airspace near the eastern town of Oserdow, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets, according to Poland’s military. The missile then flew back into Ukraine.
Just last week, Russian drones twice crossed into Poland. But the apparent scale of the overnight incursions — Polish officials spoke of more than a dozen drones — and the joint NATO response on Wednesday was a reminder of the risk that the war in Ukraine could escalate into direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Romania
In September 2023, Romania said that debris from a Russian drone had landed on its territory across the Danube River from Ukraine. Romania described this as a “a serious violation” of its national sovereignty.
Russia launched a series of nightly drone attacks on Ukrainian grain ports on the Danube delta around that time, in an attempt to thwart the country from exporting its agricultural products via a route that runs down the river and out into the Black Sea.
Romania’s defense ministry said in September 2024 that it had found fragments from Russian drones that landed on its territory on the banks of the Danube River and condemned those incidents.
Moldova
Debris from a Russian missile shot down by Ukrainian air defenses in October 2022 landed in a border village in Moldova, Moldovan officials said. Russia had previously fired drones and missiles over Moldova into Ukraine, prompting diplomatic protests from the Moldovan government.
Moldova is not a member of NATO, but the initial episode raised alarm because it showed how the war could spread into neighboring European countries. Moldova condemned the incident but said it would be considered an accident, rather than a direct strike.
Matthew Mpoke Bigg is a London-based reporter on the Live team at The Times, which covers breaking and developing news.
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